Back in May, Mat Irby detailed Ladd McConkey’s rookie year potential after he landed with the Chargers. One of the biggest highlights of the article focused on the seeming lack of target competition that McConkey would face in his rookie season.
Much has been made of the Chargers’ lack of pass catchers. With Keenan Allen headed to Chicago, the team is left with the once-promising sophomore, Quentin Johnston, who was chosen in the first round but is on a bust track, as well as D.J. Chark and Josh Palmer, who would be best cast as role players. McConkey lands on a depth chart so bereft of capability at WR that a fast track seems possible, if not likely, for anyone with a modicum of receiving acumen. Plus, his role as a short area maven seems unchallenged.
It seems Irby had a crystal ball early this offseason, because that is exactly how Week 1 played out. McConkey’s 28.0% target share tied with Tyler Lockett for 16th-highest in the NFL’s opening week, falling behind some unsustainable performances from players like Ray-Ray McCloud (30.4%) and Allen Lazard (31.0%).
McConkey’s 5.3-yard aDOT is not very exciting, but truthfully, that is the role he was expected to play given his profile coming into the league. Averaging 2.6 YAC per reception also isn’t overly exciting, but McConkey did show off some impressive elusiveness on his touchdown reception.
It is also promising that McConkey received a target in the end zone on top of the red-zone target that he turned into the TD. With McConkey’s quick twitch ability and short-area quickness, he has the skill set to continue to be a priority target when the Chargers choose to pass close to the goal line.
Due to his TD, McConkey received most of the attention in the highlights among the Chargers’ WRs. While not eye-popping, Johnston was right on McConkey’s heels with 38 yards on a 20.0% target share. Johnston also bested McConkey with a 54 to 37 advantage in air yards, and a 28 to 13 advantage in YAC despite having two fewer targets and two fewer receptions than the rookie. On a positive note for McConkey, he was the only Chargers WR to post a positive mark in expected points added (EPA) with 1.4 in Week 1.
Xavier Worthy was the only rookie WR to blow the doors off in his Week 1 debut, scoring 20.8 PPR with 5.7 EPA. Worthy scoring a TD on 66% of his touches is definitely not sustainable, but it is likely that the three touches he had in Week 1 will be the fewest he sees all season.
A 14.9 PPR point game is not going to set the world on fire, but it was good enough for McConkey to narrowly edge out Brian Thomas Jr. (14.7 PPR) for the second-best debut among the 2024 rookie WR class. Malik Nabers led all rookie WRs with 66 receiving yards, but the TD receptions of McConkey and Thomas left Nabers’ 11.6 PPR points in fourth among rookie WRs.
With so many rookie WRs failing to live up to expectations in Week 1, is there any chance that McConkey is able to claim the mantle of rookie WR1 by the end of the season?
When first watching McConkey’s highlights while preparing for the 2024 draft, the player he most reminded me of was Diontae Johnson. Displaying a quickness and smooth shiftiness off the line, McConkey proved to be exactly what Justin Herbert needed in Week 1. McConkey will likely continue to command a large target share in a Chargers offense lacking difference makers in the passing game.
Expecting the 2024 rookie WR class to continue to put up such uninspiring performances all season would be a ridiculous. Marvin Harrison Jr.’s 1.4 PPR points in Week 1 was arguably the worst debut we have ever seen from such a highly-touted prospect. We should expect the Cardinals to be intentional about rectifying that in Week 2. Nabers’ QB situation is bad enough to question whether he can hit his ceiling in Year 1, but he should continue to produce as long as the Giants make it a point to feature him. Worthy’s explosiveness should keep him at the top of highlight reels, and if he can add volume and consistency on top of it, we could be looking at the next Tyreek Hill.
Based on the talent he faces from the other rookie WRs, it is hard to project McConkey to claim the WR1 spot in the class this season. But I do feel comfortable projecting him to finish as one of the top-five rookie WRs in PPR scoring. Faced with similarly uninspiring levels of receiving talent around them, McConkey should easily challenge Nabers for the highest target share in the class. Where McConkey will probably fall short is in the number of flashy plays he is able to put on tape. As a volume play, McConkey looks like someone who should garner some flex consideration as early as Week 2, and could represent one of the best ADP values of the entire 2024 rookie WR class when the year is over.
