When Kenneth Walker III was entering the NFL, the biggest wart on his profile was his lack of involvement in the passing game. Walker never earned more than a 3% receiving yards market share in any college season, and it looked like perhaps NFL scouts were right to question Walker’s ability as a receiver after two different programs seemed to go out of their way to not give him looks in the passing game.
While Walker’s failings as a receiver were concerning, after the show he put on at the combine in 2022, they were less of an issue.
In Walker’s first two NFL seasons, he was more involved in the passing game compared to his time in college. Still, his ranking as the RB34 in targets in both seasons left something to be desired. But there were definitely glimmers of hope, as Walker made some highlight-reel catches that were not indicative of someone who is thought of as a near-zero in the passing game.
KENNETH WALKER LOOKING LIKE ODELL??
What a catch by the Seahawks RB pic.twitter.com/gFceRsxOeT
— Seattle ON Tap (@SeattleONTap) October 15, 2023
Kenneth Walker leaping behind the line of scrimmage to make a one hand catch I love this man pic.twitter.com/aZhm8WAM1d
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) November 10, 2023
Despite the increased usage as a receiver in the NFL, Walker’s receiving profile still had some red flags, namely only being targeted more than five yards downfield five times in his first two seasons. Still, targeting Walker near the line of scrimmage in open space allowed him to use his electric athleticism to become a YAC monster.
After Seattle’s change in coaching staff this offseason, a hot topic of debate was how Walker and second-year RB Zach Charbonnet would be deployed in 2024. Early signs were optimistic for Walker, but there was still some hesitation since Charbonnet has been heralded as the better receiver of the two RBs since he was drafted in 2023.
#Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb on Kenneth Walker:
“I think he gets better every single day. I think the sky’s the limit for him. I think he’s a really, really talented, powerful back that’s a true three-tool guy… He’s electric out of the backfield as a pass-catcher.” pic.twitter.com/b3FAKUQHib
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 7, 2024
When Week 1 came around, Walker did not disappoint his fantasy managers as he nearly doubled up Charbonnet in snaps and touches, while the two tied with three targets and two receptions. Sadly, Walker suffered an oblique injury in the first game of the season, opening the door for Charbonnet to become the team’s lead back in the interim.
During Walker’s two-game absence, Charbonnet averaged 21.8 PPR points, 16 rushing attempts, and 4.5 targets per game, a workload that allowed him to become the PPR RB6 over that span. The only real downfall was that Charbonnet wasn’t particularly efficient with his opportunities, averaging -5.8 expected points added (EPA) per game during the two-game stretch.
When Walker returned in Week 4, he reclaimed the role of lead back and exploded with three rushing touchdowns to finish as the overall PPR RB2 for the week. What flew under the radar was that he also earned five targets, matching the second-best mark of his career. As promising as his Week 4 work in the receiving game was, Walker then went on to match his career-high with eight targets in both Week 5 and Week 6.
With the added dimension of Walker’s increased usage in the passing game, what is his potential ceiling for the rest of 2024?
When searching for RBs who have the potential to put together historic fantasy seasons, a good place to start is by looking at players who could possibly earn double-digit expected points as both a rusher and a receiver. Heading into the season, Walker would not have topped the list as one of the RBs most likely to accomplish the EP double-double, but he is coming awfully close through six weeks.
Walker’s averages have only fallen short by a little over one PPR point per game in each phase, and have the potential to rise even further as the season moves along.
Even though Walker continues to be targeted almost exclusively around the line of scrimmage, he has continued to put up big YAC numbers once the ball is in his hands.
When you add in that he is also averaging 4.5 FPOE per game, Walker’s potential makes him one of the league’s most exciting RBs for the rest of 2024 (if he wasn’t already).
Walker has also continued to earn the praise of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who seems to understand what type of potential Walker can have in his offense.
#Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb on Kenneth Walker:
“I’ve never seen an athletic profile like that… He’s special, man. He’s growing every day, he’s getting better, and it’s scary what his top end’s looking like.” pic.twitter.com/ZVrJ5AU6KQ
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 4, 2024
For context, here is the play that Grubb is referencing in the clip above.
INSANE BALANCE FROM KENNETH WALKER TO STAY OFF THE GROUND
THIS DEFIES PHYSICS
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) October 1, 2024
Another positive indicator regarding Grubb is that he admitted he should have gotten Walker more involved in the run game against the Giants in Week 5. A mistake he seemed to rectify in Week 6 against the 49ers.
The Seahawks rank last in the NFL in designed rush rate after handing the ball off only seven times on 58 plays vs. the Giants. That included five carries for Ken Walker III.⁰
OC Ryan Grubb put that “100 percent” on himself:⁰
“I’ll own that. Gotta get the ball to Ken more.” pic.twitter.com/48aTgEFiGB— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) October 8, 2024
Early signs out of Seattle are encouraging that whoever the RB1 is under the Seahawks’ new coaching regime will have plenty of fantasy value. Both Walker and Charbonnet have flourished in their time leading the backfield, and with Walker’s tendency to miss at least two games in each of his three seasons, the door could open back up for Charbonnet to have significant value again at some point in 2024.
The big winner in this situation looks to be Walker. If his newfound receiving role continues to evolve, and he can also maintain his rushing workload and efficiency, Walker could easily end up being the biggest RB value in all of 2024 drafts.
