Another Potential Superstar RB Could Be Going Off the Board at the 1.01 in 2026 Rookie Drafts

Kevin Szafraniec
April 30, 2025

Check out all of RotoViz’s coverage of the 2025 NFL Draft!

After we were spoiled with a deep rookie running back class in 2025, it will be difficult for any class in the next few years to measure up. Though we may not see similar depth in next year’s RB class, it will not be lacking elite upside at the top. With many of 2024’s best college RBs leaving high-profile programs for the NFL, there will undoubtedly be some names that rise up draft boards that are currently flying under our radars.

The 2026 rookie landscape will change in ways we cannot predict between now and next May, but having a general idea of how things could play out in 2026 rookie drafts is important when fielding offers for future dynasty picks in this year’s draft. Using a combination of advanced metrics, film study, and data analysis, we will attempt to predict who the biggest risers and fallers could be over the course of the college football season.

In the 2025 RotoViz Rookie Draft Guide, Shawn Siegele outlines many of the advanced stats we prefer to use when evaluating RB prospects, and they will be referenced heavily throughout the article.

In this publication, we dive into RB performance through the help of the following advanced stats:

Broken and forced missed tackles are intuitive. A broken tackle occurs when a defender is in position for a tackle and makes contact, but fails to bring the ball-carrier down. A ball-carrier forces a missed tackle when the defender is in position for the tackle but fails to make contact.

Evaded tackles and evasion rate: the evaded tackle category includes both broken and forced missed tackles. Evasion rate gives us the percentage of evaded tackles per attempt. We generally focus on rushing evasion rate, but Blair’s research has emphasized the importance of total evaded tackles on rushing and passing plays.

Points Earned: As was the case with QBs and passing, a back’s Points Earned reflects the distribution of EPA responsibility on rushes. It accounts for offensive line play, run direction, broken tackles, and fumbles. This can also be translated into points above average per attempt.

Stuff percentage: Carries which resulted in zero or fewer yards.

Positive/Boom/Bust Percentage: These designations refer to rushing attempts that hit specific EPA thresholds. Positive plays are rushes with a positive EPA result. Boom plays are rushes that achieve at least 1.0 EPA, and bust plays are rushes that result in at least -1.0 EPA.

Backfield Dominator Rating is a RotoViz metric that measures the back’s percentage of rushing and receiving output at the RB position within the context of his specific offense.

For all of the stats Shawn mentions above and more, go pick up your copy of the 2025 RotoViz Rookie Draft Guide TODAY! With Volume 3 out now, stay up to date on all of the latest information you’ll need to crush your rookie drafts and best ball leagues in 2025!

For a limited time, purchasers of the Rookie Guide can take $29.99 off the first-year cost of a new 1-year RotoViz subscription!

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Kevin Szafraniec

Full-time Cat Dad, Sneakerhead, Record Collector, LOTR Fanboy, and Jeopardy Enthusiast. Fantasy football writer and beatmaker in my free time. Follow me on X and Bluesky @thecatdadff

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