Earlier this offseason, I used our Bounceback indicators to help drafters load up on the right wide receivers in dynasty. Several of those receivers have already returned a good profit as they’ve risen throughout the year. Now it’s time to dive back in for redraft. With the biggest draft weekend of the year only days away, how should we play these controversial receivers?
The Wrong Read and Wide Receiver Bouncebacks
In the Anatomy of WR Bouncebacks: The Wrong Read No. 46, Blair Andrews found a number of metrics we should focus on when trying to buy low at WR.
Those indicators allowed us to sift through eleven 2019 candidates and recommend Marvin Jones and Jamison Crowder, while selling A.J. Green. Despite Jones’ late-season injury, the two receivers combined to add 193 points over their 2018 results.
Both receivers finished with win rates well above 10%, and owners who stacked them won at almost 19%. Meanwhile, Green owners – and that included me in a league where I couldn’t resist the siren song and didn’t take my own advice – crawled to a 1.7% win rate.
What We’re Looking For – Busting Myths
Many of the traits that help us identify bouncebacks are intuitive, but Blair helps us bust some myths as well.
Successful bouncebacks tend to be younger and drafted earlier. They were more prolific producers in the year prior to decline. They were more efficient both in the year before the decline and in the year of the decline.[1]
This follows our research across multiple categories. Chasing expected points (EP) is more effective than chasing efficiency in-season, but emphasizing inefficient players between seasons is merely a recipe for loading up on bad players.
The Candidates: 4 to Buy, 4 to Sell
With the bounceback traits in mind, it’s time to take a more in-depth look at the 16 players who scored more than 150 points in 2018 and suffered a decline of 50 points or more in 2019.
Footnotes
| ↑1 | For the specifics, make sure to check out Blair’s original work and be on the lookout for his 2020 updates. |
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