Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 12. Some inefficient players still manage performances you can live with, while some will destroy your chance at a title. Some players put up Week 12 performances you couldn’t win without.

For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end of the article.

As we wrap up the first week of the playoffs in many leagues, including FFPC leagues, we’re reminded of how little we know at the beginning of the season. Shawn detailed how a team he drafted with Ben Gretch, Pat Kerrane, and Peter Overzet put up 219 points without three of their first five picks active. The team Shawn and I drafted in the FFPC Main Event scored 169 with only 10.5 points from our first three picks combined.^[1]DeAndre Hopkins scored 10.5. Julio Jones did not play. A.J. Brown was on our bench, so his 26 points didn’t help us.

One thing we did not anticipate, despite drafting a true Zero Running Back team, is that our RBs would truly be near-zeroes so often. We have started J.D. McKissic each of the last three weeks, and five of the last seven. Prior to Week 12, his target numbers were almost Austin Ekeler-esque. If you started to confuse the two of them, McKissic made sure to remind you, in no uncertain terms, he was not Ekeler.

Those are the top-five least efficient running backs. No RB — not even the likes of Peyton Barber or David Montgomery — has been as inefficient as McKissic over the course of the season. In fact only one player in the NFL has been worse.

Despite how bad he’s been, McKissic has had enough useful games that he’s not killing your team if you are also forced to start him, or if you somehow drafted him in best ball. The 2020 Best Ball Win Rates tool is not yet updated for Week 12, but after Week 11, McKissic had a nearly 17% win rate in BestBall10s.

Antonio Gibson’s emergence figures to bring that number closer to earth, but it’s still impressive that someone underperforming his opportunity by that much could find himself on so many winning rosters. By contrast, A.J. Green’s win rate has never been above 6% in 2020.

Green’s inefficiency is almost unfathomable, especially when you compare it to the other top receivers on his team.

It’s impressive not only that Tee Higgins can put up such good numbers as a rookie, with a rookie quarterback (mostly), while Green is so underwhelming, but also that he leads his team in FPOE. However, as you could have probably guessed, he’s not the only rookie to do that in 2020.

Only two WRs in the NFL have been more efficient than rookie Justin Jefferson through 12 weeks, and incidentally, both of them overtook him in Week 12.