Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Mark Andrews Is the Next George Kittle, Only More Efficient: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 2

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look out how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency…...

D.J. Moore’s Breakout Is Really Happening: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 1

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look out how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency…...

Just Draft the Right Players: My Top Targets In Each Round

I’ve been in a handful of drafts this offseason with co-managers (including one with three other co-managers). One thing I’ve found myself doing in order to prepare to co-draft a fantasy team is to pick out my draft targets in each round. In most rounds there are only a handful of players I’m actually considering. So putting those targets down in writing has been helpful when strategizing with another owner. And maybe you’d like to see who I’m targeting too. I’m using FFPC redraft ADP from the last week to ensure I’m looking at the most up-to-date data. I’ve broken down each…...

Good Players Are Good, WR Edition: Why You Shouldn’t Fade Efficiency – The Wrong Read, No. 59

Welcome to the 59th installment of The Wrong Read. Last offseason we found that rookie year efficiency not only tends to persist for WRs, but also signals increased opportunity and fantasy scoring in subsequent seasons. And that’s not all. Efficiency is actually far more predictive than you’ve been told. Volume is king, or so they say. It’s true — nearly a truism — that opportunity is more predictable than efficiency. The takeaway for those chasing fantasy championships is that you should be buying volume and fading efficiency, right? Wrong. A recent episode of RotoViz Overtime featured a rare appearance by…...

Rookie RBs Are Still the Key to Winning at Fantasy: Win Rates and Opportunity Costs – The Wrong Read, No. 58

Welcome to the 58th installment of The Wrong Read. Last offseason I wrote about the advantage that drafting a rookie running back in the proper range can give you. Few players outperform ADP-based expectations more frequently or to a greater degree than rookie RBs going in Rounds 9-12. Today we update our numbers with 2018 data and look at the issue from a slightly different angle. Past installments of the Wrong Read have examined rookie RB outperformance in terms of actual fantasy points above ADP-implied points. How many points do certain players score above and beyond the number of points…...

How to Win the Flex in 2019: Zero RB Is Set Up to Dominate Fantasy Drafts Yet Again

The Flex position is arguably the most important position in fantasy because it’s one of the easiest positions to generate more value over average than your opponents. Whatever strategy fits your particular league format, that strategy should be based on putting an elite player in the Flex position. That’s a quote from Shawn Siegele’s original article explaining why the Flex position wins championships. “Win the Flex” has since become a clarion call for RotoViz faithfuls, and one of the main reasons for this is that winning the Flex so often dovetails with one of our favorite draft strategies.1 Winning the…...

How to Win Your Scott Fish Bowl Draft: The SFB9 Game Log Explorer Has Some Strong Thoughts On Early TEs

Scott Fish Bowl 9 drafts are just days away. Unless you already play in another “half-PPR, half-point per first down, TE-premium, three flex, one superflex, achievement bonus league,” chances are you might be underprepared. Luckily, you can get a quick handle on how to approach your draft using our new (and free!) SFB9 Game Log Explorer app. One of the first questions worth answering is whether the TE-premium element makes it imperative to try to get one of the big three TEs. Travis Kelce’s 445 total points through 16 weeks ranked sixth overall last year among all positions, including QBs…....

Year 2 Breakouts Still Happen Earlier (Well, Younger) Than You Think – The Wrong Read, No. 57

Welcome to the 57th installment of The Wrong Read. Filling your team with QBs and TEs (and RBs and WRs) entering Year 2 appears to be an easy way to improve your win rate. But obviously not every Year 2 player will break out. Simply loading up on players going into their second year does expose your team to massive breakout potential, but also to a lot of players who will do nothing. However, if you’re looking for a simple way to supercharge your Year-2-centric teams, read on. We know that Year 2 is the season to target for breakouts…...

Just Pick Players: Win Your League With This Simple Onesie Selection Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 56

Welcome to the 56th installment of The Wrong Read. Quarterback and tight end are the forgotten positions in fantasy, but they are probably more important than you think — you can win your best ball league simply by taking the right roster construction approach to these positions. At the end of the day though, you also have to pick players, and good process here can make a huge difference. So how do we find QB and TE options who are set up to outperform expectations? There is at least one way, and it’s super easy. Previous installments of The Wrong…...

4 RB Sleepers to Watch and 1 Early Pick Who’s Better Than You Think: 2019 Backfield Dominator Ratings

  Last offseason I introduced a metric I called Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). BDR measures the percentage of running back production that a college RB accounts for in his offense. In other words, it adjusts for offensive systems or for quarterbacks who, for whatever reason, don’t utilize RBs in the passing game.1 Although raw receiving production can tell us a lot about a RB’s receiving ability, often raw receiving production is stifled for reasons having little to do with a RB’s actual skill in the receiving game. Devonta Freeman caught barely more than one pass per game during his career…...

Mark Andrews Is the Next George Kittle, Only More Efficient: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 2

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look out how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency…...

D.J. Moore’s Breakout Is Really Happening: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 1

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look out how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency…...

Just Draft the Right Players: My Top Targets In Each Round

I’ve been in a handful of drafts this offseason with co-managers (including one with three other co-managers). One thing I’ve found myself doing in order to prepare to co-draft a fantasy team is to pick out my draft targets in each round. In most rounds there are only a handful of players I’m actually considering. So putting those targets down in writing has been helpful when strategizing with another owner. And maybe you’d like to see who I’m targeting too. I’m using FFPC redraft ADP from the last week to ensure I’m looking at the most up-to-date data. I’ve broken down each…...

Good Players Are Good, WR Edition: Why You Shouldn’t Fade Efficiency – The Wrong Read, No. 59

Welcome to the 59th installment of The Wrong Read. Last offseason we found that rookie year efficiency not only tends to persist for WRs, but also signals increased opportunity and fantasy scoring in subsequent seasons. And that’s not all. Efficiency is actually far more predictive than you’ve been told. Volume is king, or so they say. It’s true — nearly a truism — that opportunity is more predictable than efficiency. The takeaway for those chasing fantasy championships is that you should be buying volume and fading efficiency, right? Wrong. A recent episode of RotoViz Overtime featured a rare appearance by…...

Rookie RBs Are Still the Key to Winning at Fantasy: Win Rates and Opportunity Costs – The Wrong Read, No. 58

Welcome to the 58th installment of The Wrong Read. Last offseason I wrote about the advantage that drafting a rookie running back in the proper range can give you. Few players outperform ADP-based expectations more frequently or to a greater degree than rookie RBs going in Rounds 9-12. Today we update our numbers with 2018 data and look at the issue from a slightly different angle. Past installments of the Wrong Read have examined rookie RB outperformance in terms of actual fantasy points above ADP-implied points. How many points do certain players score above and beyond the number of points…...

How to Win the Flex in 2019: Zero RB Is Set Up to Dominate Fantasy Drafts Yet Again

The Flex position is arguably the most important position in fantasy because it’s one of the easiest positions to generate more value over average than your opponents. Whatever strategy fits your particular league format, that strategy should be based on putting an elite player in the Flex position. That’s a quote from Shawn Siegele’s original article explaining why the Flex position wins championships. “Win the Flex” has since become a clarion call for RotoViz faithfuls, and one of the main reasons for this is that winning the Flex so often dovetails with one of our favorite draft strategies.1 Winning the…...

How to Win Your Scott Fish Bowl Draft: The SFB9 Game Log Explorer Has Some Strong Thoughts On Early TEs

Scott Fish Bowl 9 drafts are just days away. Unless you already play in another “half-PPR, half-point per first down, TE-premium, three flex, one superflex, achievement bonus league,” chances are you might be underprepared. Luckily, you can get a quick handle on how to approach your draft using our new (and free!) SFB9 Game Log Explorer app. One of the first questions worth answering is whether the TE-premium element makes it imperative to try to get one of the big three TEs. Travis Kelce’s 445 total points through 16 weeks ranked sixth overall last year among all positions, including QBs…....

Year 2 Breakouts Still Happen Earlier (Well, Younger) Than You Think – The Wrong Read, No. 57

Welcome to the 57th installment of The Wrong Read. Filling your team with QBs and TEs (and RBs and WRs) entering Year 2 appears to be an easy way to improve your win rate. But obviously not every Year 2 player will break out. Simply loading up on players going into their second year does expose your team to massive breakout potential, but also to a lot of players who will do nothing. However, if you’re looking for a simple way to supercharge your Year-2-centric teams, read on. We know that Year 2 is the season to target for breakouts…...

Just Pick Players: Win Your League With This Simple Onesie Selection Tactic – The Wrong Read, No. 56

Welcome to the 56th installment of The Wrong Read. Quarterback and tight end are the forgotten positions in fantasy, but they are probably more important than you think — you can win your best ball league simply by taking the right roster construction approach to these positions. At the end of the day though, you also have to pick players, and good process here can make a huge difference. So how do we find QB and TE options who are set up to outperform expectations? There is at least one way, and it’s super easy. Previous installments of The Wrong…...

4 RB Sleepers to Watch and 1 Early Pick Who’s Better Than You Think: 2019 Backfield Dominator Ratings

  Last offseason I introduced a metric I called Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). BDR measures the percentage of running back production that a college RB accounts for in his offense. In other words, it adjusts for offensive systems or for quarterbacks who, for whatever reason, don’t utilize RBs in the passing game.1 Although raw receiving production can tell us a lot about a RB’s receiving ability, often raw receiving production is stifled for reasons having little to do with a RB’s actual skill in the receiving game. Devonta Freeman caught barely more than one pass per game during his career…...

Just Draft the Right Players: My Top Targets In Each Round

I’ve been in a handful of drafts this offseason with co-managers (including one with three other co-managers). One thing I’ve found myself doing in order to prepare to co-draft a fantasy team is to pick out my draft targets in each round. In most rounds there are only a handful of…...

How to Win the Flex in 2019: Zero RB Is Set Up to Dominate Fantasy Drafts Yet Again

The Flex position is arguably the most important position in fantasy because it’s one of the easiest positions to generate more value over average than your opponents. Whatever strategy fits your particular league format, that strategy should be based on putting an elite player in the Flex position. That’s a…...

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