Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

2019 Rookie RB Tournament: (2) David Montgomery vs. (15) Travis Homer

In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament, second-seeded David Montgomery faces off against the 15 seed Travis Homer. Is Homer’s excellent combine enough to overcome Montgomery’s elite production? Find out below. Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament pits 16 of the top prospects at the position in this year’s draft in head-to-head matchups. Our dynasty team considered the following when voting to determine the winner of each matchup: RotoViz metrics and research, projected chance of future fantasy success, cost to acquire the player in rookie drafts, and personal criteria…....

2019 Rookie WR Tournament: (1) N’Keal Harry vs. (16) Greg Dortch

In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament, top seed N’Keal Harry takes on 16th-seeded Greg Dortch. Can Dortch channel his inner UMBC, or will Harry live up to his top billing? The votes are in; keep reading to discover the results.  Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament pits 16 of the top prospects at the position in this year’s draft in head-to-head matchups. Our dynasty team considered the following when voting to determine the winner of each matchup: RotoViz metrics and research, projected chance of future fantasy success, cost…...

How Should We Measure College Breakouts? The Wrong Read, No. 55

Welcome to the 55th installment of The Wrong Read. We love breakouts at RotoViz. We want to target wide receiver prospects who break out in college, and especially those who break out early. The question then becomes, what should we count as a breakout? Breakout age is among the most important WR metrics apart from draft position — the skeleton key of WR prospect evaluation. But we can calculate it in several ways, using different thresholds and different production metrics. Do these different methods make a difference? Which metrics should we use when measuring receiving production? Where should we set…...

Greg Dortch Is Small and Slow and I Don’t Care

Wake Forest wide receiver Greg Dortch is skipping his final two years of college eligibility to declare for the NFL draft. Is he someone dynasty owners should be paying attention to? There are reasons both for optimism and for restraint.1 Production First, the good news: Dortch was extremely productive at a young age in his two seasons at Wake Forest. He played only eight games in his redshirt freshman season, but he managed 722 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in those games, good for a 41 percent dominator rating and an age 19 breakout. He followed that up with over 1,000…...

2019 NFL Draft Prospect: Greg Dortch

Wake Forest wide receiver Greg Dortch recently announced that he would forgo his final two years of college eligibility to declare for the NFL draft. Is he someone dynasty owners should be paying attention to? There are reasons both for optimism and for restraint…....

One Weird Trick for Finding Top WR Prospects: Early Declaration and Draft Age – The Wrong Read, No. 53

Welcome to the 53rd installment of The Wrong Read. Does draft age really matter for wide receiver prospects? The truth may surprise you — at least if you’ve been following this column for a little while. As Karl Popper put it, the most important evolutionary advantage of the argumentative use of language is that it “allows us to let theories die in our stead.” In 2014, Chip Kelly was quoted as saying that he preferred to draft players who graduated college, or at least those who were about to graduate. The Eagles’ first six picks that year were all seniors, including…...

Good Players Are Good: Why You Should Chase Rookie-Year Efficiency at RB – The Wrong Read, No. 52

Welcome to the 52nd installment of The Wrong Read. Based on the number of articles appearing in this “weekly” series, one year has passed since we started. Strangely it’s taken about 16 months to get here. The thing is, time slows down as you approach a massive object like the black hole that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers football team. Ronald Jones is evidently on the other side of the event horizon and I was (and still am) foolishly trying to bring him back…....

Floor and Ceiling Projections and the Jets Franken-RB: Week 15 RB GLSP

Game-Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) use historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The result is a range of outcomes. The low projection is the 25th-percentile point total from the most similar matchups. The high projection is the 75th-percentile result…....

2019 Rookie RB Tournament: (2) David Montgomery vs. (15) Travis Homer

In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament, second-seeded David Montgomery faces off against the 15 seed Travis Homer. Is Homer’s excellent combine enough to overcome Montgomery’s elite production? Find out below. Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament pits 16 of the top prospects at the position in this year’s draft in head-to-head matchups. Our dynasty team considered the following when voting to determine the winner of each matchup: RotoViz metrics and research, projected chance of future fantasy success, cost to acquire the player in rookie drafts, and personal criteria…....

2019 Rookie WR Tournament: (1) N’Keal Harry vs. (16) Greg Dortch

In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament, top seed N’Keal Harry takes on 16th-seeded Greg Dortch. Can Dortch channel his inner UMBC, or will Harry live up to his top billing? The votes are in; keep reading to discover the results.  Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament pits 16 of the top prospects at the position in this year’s draft in head-to-head matchups. Our dynasty team considered the following when voting to determine the winner of each matchup: RotoViz metrics and research, projected chance of future fantasy success, cost…...

How Should We Measure College Breakouts? The Wrong Read, No. 55

Welcome to the 55th installment of The Wrong Read. We love breakouts at RotoViz. We want to target wide receiver prospects who break out in college, and especially those who break out early. The question then becomes, what should we count as a breakout? Breakout age is among the most important WR metrics apart from draft position — the skeleton key of WR prospect evaluation. But we can calculate it in several ways, using different thresholds and different production metrics. Do these different methods make a difference? Which metrics should we use when measuring receiving production? Where should we set…...

Greg Dortch Is Small and Slow and I Don’t Care

Wake Forest wide receiver Greg Dortch is skipping his final two years of college eligibility to declare for the NFL draft. Is he someone dynasty owners should be paying attention to? There are reasons both for optimism and for restraint.1 Production First, the good news: Dortch was extremely productive at a young age in his two seasons at Wake Forest. He played only eight games in his redshirt freshman season, but he managed 722 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in those games, good for a 41 percent dominator rating and an age 19 breakout. He followed that up with over 1,000…...

2019 NFL Draft Prospect: Greg Dortch

Wake Forest wide receiver Greg Dortch recently announced that he would forgo his final two years of college eligibility to declare for the NFL draft. Is he someone dynasty owners should be paying attention to? There are reasons both for optimism and for restraint…....

One Weird Trick for Finding Top WR Prospects: Early Declaration and Draft Age – The Wrong Read, No. 53

Welcome to the 53rd installment of The Wrong Read. Does draft age really matter for wide receiver prospects? The truth may surprise you — at least if you’ve been following this column for a little while. As Karl Popper put it, the most important evolutionary advantage of the argumentative use of language is that it “allows us to let theories die in our stead.” In 2014, Chip Kelly was quoted as saying that he preferred to draft players who graduated college, or at least those who were about to graduate. The Eagles’ first six picks that year were all seniors, including…...

Good Players Are Good: Why You Should Chase Rookie-Year Efficiency at RB – The Wrong Read, No. 52

Welcome to the 52nd installment of The Wrong Read. Based on the number of articles appearing in this “weekly” series, one year has passed since we started. Strangely it’s taken about 16 months to get here. The thing is, time slows down as you approach a massive object like the black hole that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers football team. Ronald Jones is evidently on the other side of the event horizon and I was (and still am) foolishly trying to bring him back…....

Floor and Ceiling Projections and the Jets Franken-RB: Week 15 RB GLSP

Game-Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) use historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The result is a range of outcomes. The low projection is the 25th-percentile point total from the most similar matchups. The high projection is the 75th-percentile result…....

2019 Rookie RB Tournament: (2) David Montgomery vs. (15) Travis Homer

In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament, second-seeded David Montgomery faces off against the 15 seed Travis Homer. Is Homer’s excellent combine enough to overcome Montgomery’s elite production? Find out below. Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz Dynasty Coordinator: The 2019 RotoViz Rookie RB Tournament pits 16…...

2019 Rookie WR Tournament: (1) N’Keal Harry vs. (16) Greg Dortch

In the first round of the 2019 RotoViz Rookie WR Tournament, top seed N’Keal Harry takes on 16th-seeded Greg Dortch. Can Dortch channel his inner UMBC, or will Harry live up to his top billing? The votes are in; keep reading to discover the results.  Note from Curtis Patrick, RotoViz…...

How Should We Measure College Breakouts? The Wrong Read, No. 55

Welcome to the 55th installment of The Wrong Read. We love breakouts at RotoViz. We want to target wide receiver prospects who break out in college, and especially those who break out early. The question then becomes, what should we count as a breakout? Breakout age is among the most…...

Greg Dortch Is Small and Slow and I Don’t Care

Wake Forest wide receiver Greg Dortch is skipping his final two years of college eligibility to declare for the NFL draft. Is he someone dynasty owners should be paying attention to? There are reasons both for optimism and for restraint.1 Production First, the good news: Dortch was extremely productive at a…...

2019 NFL Draft Prospect: Greg Dortch

Wake Forest wide receiver Greg Dortch recently announced that he would forgo his final two years of college eligibility to declare for the NFL draft. Is he someone dynasty owners should be paying attention to? There are reasons both for optimism and for restraint…....

Floor and Ceiling Projections and the Jets Franken-RB: Week 15 RB GLSP

Game-Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) use historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The result is a range of outcomes. The low projection is the 25th-percentile point total from the most similar matchups. The high projection is the 75th-percentile result…....

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