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perfect fantasy draft

Go Big or Go Home: MFL10 QBs

I took a stab at predicting MFL10 QB ADP and highlighted the weak relationship between win rate and how late teams waited on quarterback. No quarterback drafted outside the top-153 picks had a positive win rate (anything over 10 percent) but the overall relationship between QB ADP and team success was still relatively weak. Teams that drafted Cam Newton got wrecked in 2016, winning only 4.7 percent of their leagues, although other early QBs tended to do well. But just how well did they do? Even if we remove Newton’s data point, these two stats — QB ADP and win…...

MFL10

Predicting MFL10 QB ADP

Some will say I’m a dreamer, but others will simply say I was right. Last year, I proclaimed the death of late-round QB for MFL10 bestball drafts, writing in May:…...

This “Sleeper” QB is Actually a Terrible Pick

You didn’t hear this from me, but Jay Cutler might secretly be a terrible pick this year. So you know that I am both a hypocrite and prone to bad predictions, I will admit I called Jay Cutler a value pick last offseason…....

Kirk Cousins Shows Improvement, but His ADP Falls

Source: Kirk Cousins Wants To Take Next Step With Ownership Of Offense – Redskins.com: “Just taking another step in terms of my command, confidence, I think is stuff that maybe the fans won’t be able to see directly,” Cousins said . . . of what he wants to improve on this year. “But behind the scenes, I don’t know if control is the word, but command and discernment about how the offense is run. All that experience is so valuable, as in any other profession, experience on the football field I think will really make a difference for me.” Kirk…...

The Overlooked MFL10-Winning QB

Every good superhero hides behind a mask. They conceal their true identity from all except their most trusted circle of friends and family, so that only a few know just how special they really are…....

Late Round QB is the New Black

These early months of 2016 are unlike anything we have seen in fantasy football history. The entire community has begun to wait on quarterback. Late round QB is sweeping the nation. Late-round QB was popularized as a term by J.J. Zachariason back in 2012, but few fantasy owners heeded his call. Steve Gallo then laid out the beautiful Zero QB Theorem the following year, but still few followed. QBs continued to go early in nearly every draft. Now, fantasy players have abandoned all caution, driven mad by the late-round success of last year’s quarterback crop. This year’s patience at the…...

3 Overlooked QBs for Your MFL10 Drafts

In 2015 MyFantasyLeague.com best-ball leagues, the best quarterback picks1 were the ones who regularly put together QB1 weeks. Seven top-12 weeks was the important threshold for the 2015 season, and it was a necessary condition to make the top-10 quarterback list, based on team average finish. Working off of that finding, I plotted our current Best Ball ADP against each QB’s number of top-12 finishes over the last two seasons in an effort to find undervalued MFL10 QBs for this season. The red line is the seven-week threshold. The first eight picks show what we would expect: they are drafted early,…...

Volatility and Quarterback Projections

Last week, Charles Kleinheksel showed us tight end volatility projections, Ben Gretch gave us wide receivers, and Aaron Butler broke down the running backs. Jonathan Bales devised the volatility score methodology in the early RotoViz years. Those scores provide a quick picture of how risky — or reliable — a player’s fantasy output may be. The formula is: (High 2016 Projection – Low 2016 Projection) / Median 2016 Projection In short, the higher the volatility score, the wider the range of 2016 outcomes for that player. To run the numbers, we use the QB Similarity Scores app. The app gives…...

perfect fantasy draft

Best MFL10 QBs of 2015

As MFL10 bestball drafts kick off this week, there is no better time to dig into last year’s results and search for lessons we should learn and apply to 2016 drafts…....

free agency

Go Big or Go Home: Quarterbacks in 2015 MFL10 Drafts

In 2015, quarterback ADP had a minimal impact on MFL10 success. With the exception of soul-crushing performances from overdrafted QBs Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, ADP had nearly no correlation to MFL10 win rate or average finish. Teams that drafted Luck and Rodgers paid a high price for their first quarterback, and neither passer got close to returning value.1 Although injuries hurt those two quarterbacks and the teams that drafted them, the futility of an early-round quarterback approach mirrors what we saw in 2014 as well. Outside of those top two QBs, the rest of the position was a mixed…...

perfect fantasy draft

Go Big or Go Home: MFL10 QBs

I took a stab at predicting MFL10 QB ADP and highlighted the weak relationship between win rate and how late teams waited on quarterback. No quarterback drafted outside the top-153 picks had a positive win rate (anything over 10 percent) but the overall relationship between QB ADP and team success was still relatively weak. Teams that drafted Cam Newton got wrecked in 2016, winning only 4.7 percent of their leagues, although other early QBs tended to do well. But just how well did they do? Even if we remove Newton’s data point, these two stats — QB ADP and win…...

MFL10

Predicting MFL10 QB ADP

Some will say I’m a dreamer, but others will simply say I was right. Last year, I proclaimed the death of late-round QB for MFL10 bestball drafts, writing in May:…...

This “Sleeper” QB is Actually a Terrible Pick

You didn’t hear this from me, but Jay Cutler might secretly be a terrible pick this year. So you know that I am both a hypocrite and prone to bad predictions, I will admit I called Jay Cutler a value pick last offseason…....

Kirk Cousins Shows Improvement, but His ADP Falls

Source: Kirk Cousins Wants To Take Next Step With Ownership Of Offense – Redskins.com: “Just taking another step in terms of my command, confidence, I think is stuff that maybe the fans won’t be able to see directly,” Cousins said . . . of what he wants to improve on this year. “But behind the scenes, I don’t know if control is the word, but command and discernment about how the offense is run. All that experience is so valuable, as in any other profession, experience on the football field I think will really make a difference for me.” Kirk…...

The Overlooked MFL10-Winning QB

Every good superhero hides behind a mask. They conceal their true identity from all except their most trusted circle of friends and family, so that only a few know just how special they really are…....

Late Round QB is the New Black

These early months of 2016 are unlike anything we have seen in fantasy football history. The entire community has begun to wait on quarterback. Late round QB is sweeping the nation. Late-round QB was popularized as a term by J.J. Zachariason back in 2012, but few fantasy owners heeded his call. Steve Gallo then laid out the beautiful Zero QB Theorem the following year, but still few followed. QBs continued to go early in nearly every draft. Now, fantasy players have abandoned all caution, driven mad by the late-round success of last year’s quarterback crop. This year’s patience at the…...

3 Overlooked QBs for Your MFL10 Drafts

In 2015 MyFantasyLeague.com best-ball leagues, the best quarterback picks1 were the ones who regularly put together QB1 weeks. Seven top-12 weeks was the important threshold for the 2015 season, and it was a necessary condition to make the top-10 quarterback list, based on team average finish. Working off of that finding, I plotted our current Best Ball ADP against each QB’s number of top-12 finishes over the last two seasons in an effort to find undervalued MFL10 QBs for this season. The red line is the seven-week threshold. The first eight picks show what we would expect: they are drafted early,…...

Volatility and Quarterback Projections

Last week, Charles Kleinheksel showed us tight end volatility projections, Ben Gretch gave us wide receivers, and Aaron Butler broke down the running backs. Jonathan Bales devised the volatility score methodology in the early RotoViz years. Those scores provide a quick picture of how risky — or reliable — a player’s fantasy output may be. The formula is: (High 2016 Projection – Low 2016 Projection) / Median 2016 Projection In short, the higher the volatility score, the wider the range of 2016 outcomes for that player. To run the numbers, we use the QB Similarity Scores app. The app gives…...

perfect fantasy draft

Best MFL10 QBs of 2015

As MFL10 bestball drafts kick off this week, there is no better time to dig into last year’s results and search for lessons we should learn and apply to 2016 drafts…....

free agency

Go Big or Go Home: Quarterbacks in 2015 MFL10 Drafts

In 2015, quarterback ADP had a minimal impact on MFL10 success. With the exception of soul-crushing performances from overdrafted QBs Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, ADP had nearly no correlation to MFL10 win rate or average finish. Teams that drafted Luck and Rodgers paid a high price for their first quarterback, and neither passer got close to returning value.1 Although injuries hurt those two quarterbacks and the teams that drafted them, the futility of an early-round quarterback approach mirrors what we saw in 2014 as well. Outside of those top two QBs, the rest of the position was a mixed…...

perfect fantasy draft

Go Big or Go Home: MFL10 QBs

I took a stab at predicting MFL10 QB ADP and highlighted the weak relationship between win rate and how late teams waited on quarterback. No quarterback drafted outside the top-153 picks had a positive win rate (anything over 10 percent) but the overall relationship between QB ADP and team success…...

MFL10

Predicting MFL10 QB ADP

Some will say I’m a dreamer, but others will simply say I was right. Last year, I proclaimed the death of late-round QB for MFL10 bestball drafts, writing in May:…...

This “Sleeper” QB is Actually a Terrible Pick

You didn’t hear this from me, but Jay Cutler might secretly be a terrible pick this year. So you know that I am both a hypocrite and prone to bad predictions, I will admit I called Jay Cutler a value pick last offseason…....

Kirk Cousins Shows Improvement, but His ADP Falls

Source: Kirk Cousins Wants To Take Next Step With Ownership Of Offense – Redskins.com: “Just taking another step in terms of my command, confidence, I think is stuff that maybe the fans won’t be able to see directly,” Cousins said . . . of what he wants to improve on…...

The Overlooked MFL10-Winning QB

Every good superhero hides behind a mask. They conceal their true identity from all except their most trusted circle of friends and family, so that only a few know just how special they really are…....

Late Round QB is the New Black

These early months of 2016 are unlike anything we have seen in fantasy football history. The entire community has begun to wait on quarterback. Late round QB is sweeping the nation. Late-round QB was popularized as a term by J.J. Zachariason back in 2012, but few fantasy owners heeded his…...

3 Overlooked QBs for Your MFL10 Drafts

In 2015 MyFantasyLeague.com best-ball leagues, the best quarterback picks1 were the ones who regularly put together QB1 weeks. Seven top-12 weeks was the important threshold for the 2015 season, and it was a necessary condition to make the top-10 quarterback list, based on team average finish. Working off of that finding,…...

Volatility and Quarterback Projections

Last week, Charles Kleinheksel showed us tight end volatility projections, Ben Gretch gave us wide receivers, and Aaron Butler broke down the running backs. Jonathan Bales devised the volatility score methodology in the early RotoViz years. Those scores provide a quick picture of how risky — or reliable — a…...

perfect fantasy draft

Best MFL10 QBs of 2015

As MFL10 bestball drafts kick off this week, there is no better time to dig into last year’s results and search for lessons we should learn and apply to 2016 drafts…....

free agency

Go Big or Go Home: Quarterbacks in 2015 MFL10 Drafts

In 2015, quarterback ADP had a minimal impact on MFL10 success. With the exception of soul-crushing performances from overdrafted QBs Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, ADP had nearly no correlation to MFL10 win rate or average finish. Teams that drafted Luck and Rodgers paid a high price for their first…...

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