Michael Dubner

RotoViz Featured Writer. Emphasis on DFS and DRAFT Best Ball.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Exploring the Results of a 10-Team, Superflex League in the Draft Dashboard

This past weekend, my high school friends and I had our 10th annual fantasy football draft. While I am the defending champion, have the highest net winnings in our league’s history, and draft in hundreds of DRAFT best balls throughout the year, my draft always plays out differently than I expect. I always find myself surprised by the way this home league draft unfolds, and adding the Superflex position for the first time this year added another wrinkle to projecting how the draft will unfold. League Settings The easiest way to gain an advantage on the rest of your league…...

Solo Elite TE: An Unconventional DRAFT Best Ball Championship Strategy

Now that we have entered the optimal month to draft in the DRAFT Best Ball Championship, I’m looking for every edge RotoViz can create to improve our chances of taking down the $1 Million first-place prize. RotoViz has published a variety of articles detailing how to approach best ball drafts for 2019. Shawn Siegele’s Best Ball Workshop is the most comprehensive best ball article series you will find on the internet. The DRAFT Roster Construction Explorer has provided us with valuable insight, including evidence that RotoViz’s favorite draft strategy will help someone win the $1 Million prize. While we’ve already…...

These 5 WRs Excel at Scoring Touchdowns and Nothing Will Slow Them Down

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s ability to score touchdowns — and thus score fantasy football points — may be drastically skewed if their actual touchdowns don’t align with their expected number. So far in this four-part touchdown regression article series, we discussed the 1. WRS primed to score more…...

WRS That Will Score Less: Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s abilitay to score touchdowns — and thus score fantasy football points — may be drastically skewed if their actual touchdowns don’t align with their expected number. We’ve already explored the 5 Wide Receivers Primed to Score More in 2019: Positive Touchdown Regression…...

Best Ball Round Table, Part 3: How to Manage a Poor Draft Slot and Why 2019 Could Usher in a Fantasy Points Explosion

I recently asked the gang to get together for a round table discussion looking at all of the biggest questions in best ball. I wanted to dive into the actionable intel found in the FFPC, Fanball, and DRAFT dashboards, as well as the Roster Construction Explorers for each format. Joining me today are some of the more decorated best ball players in the industry. Monty Phan and John Lapinski are veterans of the FFPC wars with 2018 Bare Knuckles and Terminator titles as two of their most recent trophies. They’re joined by Mike Beers, the best ball guru himself and 2017 Pros Vs Joes overall champion,…...

Fool’s Gold WRS: Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates Who Won’t Score More

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Most analysts just use receiving yards to regress touchdowns, so finding that there is signal with adding targets was novel.1 Last week we explored the Five Wide Receivers Primed to Score More in 2019 based on positive touchdown regression. Those were WRs who scored fewer touchdowns compared to expectation. I personally have greater than 10 percent exposure in DRAFT Best Ball leagues to three of those WRs. While we already touched…...

5 Wide Receivers Primed to Score More in 2019: Positive Touchdown Regression

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a Wide Receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s ability to score touchdowns — and thus score fantasy football points — may be drastically skewed if their actual touchdowns doesn’t align with their expected number. In Part 1 of this WR touchdown regression article series, we’ll look at the Wide…...

Zero RB Will Win Someone $1,000,000: NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship Strategies

Michael Dubner looks at how we can use the Zero RB fantasy football draft strategy in the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship tournament.  It’s been nearly six years since RotoViz’s Shawn Siegele penned the ground-breaking article “Zero RB, Antifragility, and the Myth of Value Based Drafting.” Despite the re-emergence of workhorse RBs, Zero RB is still thriving. While Zero RB may be effective in traditional best ball leagues, how effective is this strategy in the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship format? We’ve already explored: Onesie position strategies on DRAFT: 1. allocating four roster spots to the positions, 2. six QB/TEs,…...

The Roster Construction You Can Use In Every DRAFT Best Ball Championship Entry

We previously found that it may be best to wait until August to enter the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship, but there are some benefits to drafting at the beginning of the offseason. Teams that draft in August tend to post higher average scores. However, teams that draft earlier in the offseason can take advantage of facing opponents with lower scores, which may help you get more teams into Round 1 of the Best Ball Championship Playoffs. To explore the best roster construction for early best ball drafters, we will use the Fanball Roster Construction Explorer, as it provides at least…...

When Should You Enter Your DRAFT Best Ball Championship Teams? The Optimal Draft Month for Maximizing Points

Michael Dubner continues the DRAFT Best Ball article series where we will now focus our attention on the DRAFT Best Ball Championship and improve our chances of taking down the $1 Million first-place prize.  Since the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship opened this offseason, over 13,000 teams have already entered the contest, with some owners perhaps drafting over $1,000 worth of entries. This leads us to the question: What is the optimal draft month to enter the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship? Why Does Draft Month Even Matter? In traditional 12-man best ball leagues, you are only competing against the…...

Exploring the Results of a 10-Team, Superflex League in the Draft Dashboard

This past weekend, my high school friends and I had our 10th annual fantasy football draft. While I am the defending champion, have the highest net winnings in our league’s history, and draft in hundreds of DRAFT best balls throughout the year, my draft always plays out differently than I expect. I always find myself surprised by the way this home league draft unfolds, and adding the Superflex position for the first time this year added another wrinkle to projecting how the draft will unfold. League Settings The easiest way to gain an advantage on the rest of your league…...

Solo Elite TE: An Unconventional DRAFT Best Ball Championship Strategy

Now that we have entered the optimal month to draft in the DRAFT Best Ball Championship, I’m looking for every edge RotoViz can create to improve our chances of taking down the $1 Million first-place prize. RotoViz has published a variety of articles detailing how to approach best ball drafts for 2019. Shawn Siegele’s Best Ball Workshop is the most comprehensive best ball article series you will find on the internet. The DRAFT Roster Construction Explorer has provided us with valuable insight, including evidence that RotoViz’s favorite draft strategy will help someone win the $1 Million prize. While we’ve already…...

These 5 WRs Excel at Scoring Touchdowns and Nothing Will Slow Them Down

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s ability to score touchdowns — and thus score fantasy football points — may be drastically skewed if their actual touchdowns don’t align with their expected number. So far in this four-part touchdown regression article series, we discussed the 1. WRS primed to score more…...

WRS That Will Score Less: Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s abilitay to score touchdowns — and thus score fantasy football points — may be drastically skewed if their actual touchdowns don’t align with their expected number. We’ve already explored the 5 Wide Receivers Primed to Score More in 2019: Positive Touchdown Regression…...

Best Ball Round Table, Part 3: How to Manage a Poor Draft Slot and Why 2019 Could Usher in a Fantasy Points Explosion

I recently asked the gang to get together for a round table discussion looking at all of the biggest questions in best ball. I wanted to dive into the actionable intel found in the FFPC, Fanball, and DRAFT dashboards, as well as the Roster Construction Explorers for each format. Joining me today are some of the more decorated best ball players in the industry. Monty Phan and John Lapinski are veterans of the FFPC wars with 2018 Bare Knuckles and Terminator titles as two of their most recent trophies. They’re joined by Mike Beers, the best ball guru himself and 2017 Pros Vs Joes overall champion,…...

Fool’s Gold WRS: Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates Who Won’t Score More

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Most analysts just use receiving yards to regress touchdowns, so finding that there is signal with adding targets was novel.1 Last week we explored the Five Wide Receivers Primed to Score More in 2019 based on positive touchdown regression. Those were WRs who scored fewer touchdowns compared to expectation. I personally have greater than 10 percent exposure in DRAFT Best Ball leagues to three of those WRs. While we already touched…...

5 Wide Receivers Primed to Score More in 2019: Positive Touchdown Regression

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a Wide Receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s ability to score touchdowns — and thus score fantasy football points — may be drastically skewed if their actual touchdowns doesn’t align with their expected number. In Part 1 of this WR touchdown regression article series, we’ll look at the Wide…...

Zero RB Will Win Someone $1,000,000: NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship Strategies

Michael Dubner looks at how we can use the Zero RB fantasy football draft strategy in the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship tournament.  It’s been nearly six years since RotoViz’s Shawn Siegele penned the ground-breaking article “Zero RB, Antifragility, and the Myth of Value Based Drafting.” Despite the re-emergence of workhorse RBs, Zero RB is still thriving. While Zero RB may be effective in traditional best ball leagues, how effective is this strategy in the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship format? We’ve already explored: Onesie position strategies on DRAFT: 1. allocating four roster spots to the positions, 2. six QB/TEs,…...

The Roster Construction You Can Use In Every DRAFT Best Ball Championship Entry

We previously found that it may be best to wait until August to enter the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship, but there are some benefits to drafting at the beginning of the offseason. Teams that draft in August tend to post higher average scores. However, teams that draft earlier in the offseason can take advantage of facing opponents with lower scores, which may help you get more teams into Round 1 of the Best Ball Championship Playoffs. To explore the best roster construction for early best ball drafters, we will use the Fanball Roster Construction Explorer, as it provides at least…...

When Should You Enter Your DRAFT Best Ball Championship Teams? The Optimal Draft Month for Maximizing Points

Michael Dubner continues the DRAFT Best Ball article series where we will now focus our attention on the DRAFT Best Ball Championship and improve our chances of taking down the $1 Million first-place prize.  Since the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship opened this offseason, over 13,000 teams have already entered the contest, with some owners perhaps drafting over $1,000 worth of entries. This leads us to the question: What is the optimal draft month to enter the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship? Why Does Draft Month Even Matter? In traditional 12-man best ball leagues, you are only competing against the…...

Exploring the Results of a 10-Team, Superflex League in the Draft Dashboard

This past weekend, my high school friends and I had our 10th annual fantasy football draft. While I am the defending champion, have the highest net winnings in our league’s history, and draft in hundreds of DRAFT best balls throughout the year, my draft always plays out differently than I…...

Solo Elite TE: An Unconventional DRAFT Best Ball Championship Strategy

Now that we have entered the optimal month to draft in the DRAFT Best Ball Championship, I’m looking for every edge RotoViz can create to improve our chances of taking down the $1 Million first-place prize. RotoViz has published a variety of articles detailing how to approach best ball drafts…...

These 5 WRs Excel at Scoring Touchdowns and Nothing Will Slow Them Down

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and…...

WRS That Will Score Less: Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and…...

Fool’s Gold WRS: Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates Who Won’t Score More

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Most analysts just use receiving yards to regress touchdowns, so finding that there is signal with adding targets was novel.1 Last…...

5 Wide Receivers Primed to Score More in 2019: Positive Touchdown Regression

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a Wide Receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets…...

Zero RB Will Win Someone $1,000,000: NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship Strategies

Michael Dubner looks at how we can use the Zero RB fantasy football draft strategy in the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship tournament.  It’s been nearly six years since RotoViz’s Shawn Siegele penned the ground-breaking article “Zero RB, Antifragility, and the Myth of Value Based Drafting.” Despite the re-emergence of…...

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