Michael Dubner

RotoViz Featured Writer. Emphasis on NFL DFS and Best Ball.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

NFL FanDuel Week 1: What The Lineup Optimizer Is Telling Us To Do in GPPs

Michael Dubner September 6, 2019

GPPs are primarily won in three key areas: 1) player projections, 2) roster construction, and 3) ownership. Groupthink can run rampant through the fantasy football grapevines and cause DFSers to hone in on just one scenario in a player’s possible range of outcomes. What was once a good play in a vacuum can become sub-optimal as chalk. And what may feel thin at first may…...

The “Perfect” Draft for Your DRAFT Best Ball Teams

Michael Dubner August 27, 2019

You know that feeling when you finish a draft and can’t find any mistakes? Everything just falls perfectly in line with your plan and you wouldn’t change anything. Today we’ll be taking a look at one such perfect draft in the DRAFT Best Ball format. The “Perfect” Draft From Pick No. 9 in DRAFT Best Ball Round 1 Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns My favorite roster…...

Exploring the Results of a 10-Team, Superflex League in the Draft Dashboard

Michael Dubner August 20, 2019

This past weekend, my high school friends and I had our 10th annual fantasy football draft. While I am the defending champion, have the highest net winnings in our league’s history, and draft in hundreds of DRAFT best balls throughout the year, my draft always plays out differently than I expect. I always find myself surprised by the way this home league draft unfolds, and…...

Solo Elite TE: An Unconventional DRAFT Best Ball Championship Strategy

Michael Dubner August 14, 2019

Now that we have entered the optimal month to draft in the DRAFT Best Ball Championship, I’m looking for every edge RotoViz can create to improve our chances of taking down the $1 Million first-place prize. RotoViz has published a variety of articles detailing how to approach best ball drafts for 2019. Shawn Siegele’s Best Ball Workshop is the most comprehensive best ball article series…...

These 5 WRs Excel at Scoring Touchdowns and Nothing Will Slow Them Down

Michael Dubner August 9, 2019

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s ability to score touchdowns — and thus score…...

WRS That Will Score Less: Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates

Michael Dubner August 5, 2019

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s abilitay to score touchdowns — and thus…...

Best Ball Round Table, Part 3: How to Manage a Poor Draft Slot and Why 2019 Could Usher in a Fantasy Points Explosion

Michael Dubner July 30, 2019

I recently asked the gang to get together for a round table discussion looking at all of the biggest questions in best ball. I wanted to dive into the actionable intel found in the FFPC, Fanball, and DRAFT dashboards, as well as the Roster Construction Explorers for each format. Joining me today are some of the more decorated best ball players in the industry. Monty Phan and…...

Fool’s Gold WRS: Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates Who Won’t Score More

Michael Dubner July 25, 2019

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Most analysts just use receiving yards to regress touchdowns, so finding that there is signal with adding targets was novel.((And it was interesting to see that targets are actually negatively correlated with touchdowns, given the same…...

5 Wide Receivers Primed to Score More in 2019: Positive Touchdown Regression

Michael Dubner July 18, 2019

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a Wide Receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s ability to score touchdowns — and…...

Zero RB Will Win Someone $1,000,000: NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship Strategies

Michael Dubner July 15, 2019

Michael Dubner looks at how we can use the Zero RB fantasy football draft strategy in the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship tournament.  It’s been nearly six years since RotoViz’s Shawn Siegele penned the ground-breaking article “Zero RB, Antifragility, and the Myth of Value Based Drafting.” Despite the re-emergence of workhorse RBs, Zero RB is still thriving. While Zero RB may be effective in traditional…...

The Roster Construction You Can Use In Every DRAFT Best Ball Championship Entry

Michael Dubner June 27, 2019

We previously found that it may be best to wait until August to enter the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship, but there are some benefits to drafting at the beginning of the offseason. Teams that draft in August tend to post higher average scores. However, teams that draft earlier in the offseason can take advantage of facing opponents with lower scores, which may help you get…...

When Should You Enter Your DRAFT Best Ball Championship Teams? The Optimal Draft Month for Maximizing Points

Michael Dubner June 18, 2019

Michael Dubner continues the DRAFT Best Ball article series where we will now focus our attention on the DRAFT Best Ball Championship and improve our chances of taking down the $1 Million first-place prize.  Since the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship opened this offseason, over 13,000 teams have already entered the contest, with some owners perhaps drafting over $1,000 worth of entries. This leads us…...

Box Score Scout Player Comparisons: Second-Round 2019 NFL Draft

Michael Dubner May 7, 2019

  After exploring the Box Score Scout’s player comparisons for first-round picks in the 2019 NFL Draft last week, we’ll do the same for fantasy football relevant players drafted in the second round. The media’s bold player comparisons for first-round NFL Draft picks are generally acceptable, since first-round picks are usually high quality prospects. However, as we get into Day 2 of the NFL Draft,…...

Box Score Scout: 2019 NFL Draft First-Round Player Comparisons

Michael Dubner April 30, 2019

  February to April is ruled by Draft Twitter. Countless hot takes, I’m right/you’re wrong, and no middle ground. As always, there were plenty of surprising draft picks, which certainly affects fantasy football value. While the media oftentimes uses the best case scenario for player comparisons, the RotoViz Box Score Scout has an NFL player comparison tool that provides rational, objective SimScore comparisons. Now that…...

The Happy Medium: Roster Five QBs and TEs in DRAFT Best Ball

Michael Dubner April 28, 2019

The RotoViz DRAFT Roster Construction Tool allows us to analyze the win rates of specific roster constructions. In the earlier installments of the DRAFT NFL Best Ball Roster Construction Guide, we explored the win rates of teams that drafted six QBs and TEs as well as teams that limited themselves to four onesie positions. Here we will explore the win rates for teams that drafted a…...

draftkings week 17

Limit the Onesie Positions in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues

Michael Dubner April 12, 2019

In the second installment of the DRAFT NFL Best Ball Roster Construction Guide, Michael Dubner finds a structural advantage using the 2-QB, 2-TE draft strategy. In my previous article, we found the one instance where the 3-QB, 3-TE Roster construction may provide a structural edge in DRAFT Best Ball leagues. Now that we’ve explored the roster construction that dedicates six spots to the onesie positions, we’ll now explore the…...

MFL10

Should We Ever Roster Six QBs and TEs in DRAFT NFL Best Ball Leagues?

Michael Dubner March 31, 2019

Quarterbacks and tight ends are often overlooked in NFL Best Ball drafts, but Michael Dubner uses the RotoViz DRAFT Roster Construction Explorer to find a structural edge at these positions. Savvy season-long fantasy football drafters have routinely gained an edge using the Late Round Quarterback strategy, and owners are also realizing that elite Tight Ends provide a league-tilting advantage at the position. Although many think they have figured out the QB and…...

NFL FanDuel Week 1: What The Lineup Optimizer Is Telling Us To Do in GPPs

Michael Dubner September 6, 2019

GPPs are primarily won in three key areas: 1) player projections, 2) roster construction, and 3) ownership. Groupthink can run rampant through the fantasy football grapevines and cause DFSers to hone in on just one scenario in a player’s possible range of outcomes. What was once a good play in a vacuum can become sub-optimal as chalk. And what may feel thin at first may…...

The “Perfect” Draft for Your DRAFT Best Ball Teams

Michael Dubner August 27, 2019

You know that feeling when you finish a draft and can’t find any mistakes? Everything just falls perfectly in line with your plan and you wouldn’t change anything. Today we’ll be taking a look at one such perfect draft in the DRAFT Best Ball format. The “Perfect” Draft From Pick No. 9 in DRAFT Best Ball Round 1 Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns My favorite roster…...

Exploring the Results of a 10-Team, Superflex League in the Draft Dashboard

Michael Dubner August 20, 2019

This past weekend, my high school friends and I had our 10th annual fantasy football draft. While I am the defending champion, have the highest net winnings in our league’s history, and draft in hundreds of DRAFT best balls throughout the year, my draft always plays out differently than I expect. I always find myself surprised by the way this home league draft unfolds, and…...

Solo Elite TE: An Unconventional DRAFT Best Ball Championship Strategy

Michael Dubner August 14, 2019

Now that we have entered the optimal month to draft in the DRAFT Best Ball Championship, I’m looking for every edge RotoViz can create to improve our chances of taking down the $1 Million first-place prize. RotoViz has published a variety of articles detailing how to approach best ball drafts for 2019. Shawn Siegele’s Best Ball Workshop is the most comprehensive best ball article series…...

These 5 WRs Excel at Scoring Touchdowns and Nothing Will Slow Them Down

Michael Dubner August 9, 2019

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s ability to score touchdowns — and thus score…...

WRS That Will Score Less: Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates

Michael Dubner August 5, 2019

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s abilitay to score touchdowns — and thus…...

Best Ball Round Table, Part 3: How to Manage a Poor Draft Slot and Why 2019 Could Usher in a Fantasy Points Explosion

Michael Dubner July 30, 2019

I recently asked the gang to get together for a round table discussion looking at all of the biggest questions in best ball. I wanted to dive into the actionable intel found in the FFPC, Fanball, and DRAFT dashboards, as well as the Roster Construction Explorers for each format. Joining me today are some of the more decorated best ball players in the industry. Monty Phan and…...

Fool’s Gold WRS: Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates Who Won’t Score More

Michael Dubner July 25, 2019

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Most analysts just use receiving yards to regress touchdowns, so finding that there is signal with adding targets was novel.((And it was interesting to see that targets are actually negatively correlated with touchdowns, given the same…...

5 Wide Receivers Primed to Score More in 2019: Positive Touchdown Regression

Michael Dubner July 18, 2019

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a Wide Receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s ability to score touchdowns — and…...

Zero RB Will Win Someone $1,000,000: NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship Strategies

Michael Dubner July 15, 2019

Michael Dubner looks at how we can use the Zero RB fantasy football draft strategy in the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship tournament.  It’s been nearly six years since RotoViz’s Shawn Siegele penned the ground-breaking article “Zero RB, Antifragility, and the Myth of Value Based Drafting.” Despite the re-emergence of workhorse RBs, Zero RB is still thriving. While Zero RB may be effective in traditional…...

The Roster Construction You Can Use In Every DRAFT Best Ball Championship Entry

Michael Dubner June 27, 2019

We previously found that it may be best to wait until August to enter the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship, but there are some benefits to drafting at the beginning of the offseason. Teams that draft in August tend to post higher average scores. However, teams that draft earlier in the offseason can take advantage of facing opponents with lower scores, which may help you get…...

When Should You Enter Your DRAFT Best Ball Championship Teams? The Optimal Draft Month for Maximizing Points

Michael Dubner June 18, 2019

Michael Dubner continues the DRAFT Best Ball article series where we will now focus our attention on the DRAFT Best Ball Championship and improve our chances of taking down the $1 Million first-place prize.  Since the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship opened this offseason, over 13,000 teams have already entered the contest, with some owners perhaps drafting over $1,000 worth of entries. This leads us…...

Box Score Scout Player Comparisons: Second-Round 2019 NFL Draft

Michael Dubner May 7, 2019

  After exploring the Box Score Scout’s player comparisons for first-round picks in the 2019 NFL Draft last week, we’ll do the same for fantasy football relevant players drafted in the second round. The media’s bold player comparisons for first-round NFL Draft picks are generally acceptable, since first-round picks are usually high quality prospects. However, as we get into Day 2 of the NFL Draft,…...

Box Score Scout: 2019 NFL Draft First-Round Player Comparisons

Michael Dubner April 30, 2019

  February to April is ruled by Draft Twitter. Countless hot takes, I’m right/you’re wrong, and no middle ground. As always, there were plenty of surprising draft picks, which certainly affects fantasy football value. While the media oftentimes uses the best case scenario for player comparisons, the RotoViz Box Score Scout has an NFL player comparison tool that provides rational, objective SimScore comparisons. Now that…...

The Happy Medium: Roster Five QBs and TEs in DRAFT Best Ball

Michael Dubner April 28, 2019

The RotoViz DRAFT Roster Construction Tool allows us to analyze the win rates of specific roster constructions. In the earlier installments of the DRAFT NFL Best Ball Roster Construction Guide, we explored the win rates of teams that drafted six QBs and TEs as well as teams that limited themselves to four onesie positions. Here we will explore the win rates for teams that drafted a…...

draftkings week 17

Limit the Onesie Positions in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues

Michael Dubner April 12, 2019

In the second installment of the DRAFT NFL Best Ball Roster Construction Guide, Michael Dubner finds a structural advantage using the 2-QB, 2-TE draft strategy. In my previous article, we found the one instance where the 3-QB, 3-TE Roster construction may provide a structural edge in DRAFT Best Ball leagues. Now that we’ve explored the roster construction that dedicates six spots to the onesie positions, we’ll now explore the…...

MFL10

Should We Ever Roster Six QBs and TEs in DRAFT NFL Best Ball Leagues?

Michael Dubner March 31, 2019

Quarterbacks and tight ends are often overlooked in NFL Best Ball drafts, but Michael Dubner uses the RotoViz DRAFT Roster Construction Explorer to find a structural edge at these positions. Savvy season-long fantasy football drafters have routinely gained an edge using the Late Round Quarterback strategy, and owners are also realizing that elite Tight Ends provide a league-tilting advantage at the position. Although many think they have figured out the QB and…...

NFL FanDuel Week 1: What The Lineup Optimizer Is Telling Us To Do in GPPs

Michael Dubner September 6, 2019

GPPs are primarily won in three key areas: 1) player projections, 2) roster construction, and 3) ownership. Groupthink can run rampant through the fantasy football grapevines and cause DFSers to hone in on just one scenario in a player’s possible range of outcomes. What was once a good play in a vacuum can become sub-optimal as chalk. And what may feel thin at first may…...

The “Perfect” Draft for Your DRAFT Best Ball Teams

Michael Dubner August 27, 2019

You know that feeling when you finish a draft and can’t find any mistakes? Everything just falls perfectly in line with your plan and you wouldn’t change anything. Today we’ll be taking a look at one such perfect draft in the DRAFT Best Ball format. The “Perfect” Draft From Pick No. 9 in DRAFT Best Ball Round 1 Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns My favorite roster…...

Exploring the Results of a 10-Team, Superflex League in the Draft Dashboard

Michael Dubner August 20, 2019

This past weekend, my high school friends and I had our 10th annual fantasy football draft. While I am the defending champion, have the highest net winnings in our league’s history, and draft in hundreds of DRAFT best balls throughout the year, my draft always plays out differently than I expect. I always find myself surprised by the way this home league draft unfolds, and…...

Solo Elite TE: An Unconventional DRAFT Best Ball Championship Strategy

Michael Dubner August 14, 2019

Now that we have entered the optimal month to draft in the DRAFT Best Ball Championship, I’m looking for every edge RotoViz can create to improve our chances of taking down the $1 Million first-place prize. RotoViz has published a variety of articles detailing how to approach best ball drafts for 2019. Shawn Siegele’s Best Ball Workshop is the most comprehensive best ball article series…...

These 5 WRs Excel at Scoring Touchdowns and Nothing Will Slow Them Down

Michael Dubner August 9, 2019

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s ability to score touchdowns — and thus score…...

WRS That Will Score Less: Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates

Michael Dubner August 5, 2019

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s abilitay to score touchdowns — and thus…...

Best Ball Round Table, Part 3: How to Manage a Poor Draft Slot and Why 2019 Could Usher in a Fantasy Points Explosion

Michael Dubner July 30, 2019

I recently asked the gang to get together for a round table discussion looking at all of the biggest questions in best ball. I wanted to dive into the actionable intel found in the FFPC, Fanball, and DRAFT dashboards, as well as the Roster Construction Explorers for each format. Joining me today are some of the more decorated best ball players in the industry. Monty Phan and…...

Fool’s Gold WRS: Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates Who Won’t Score More

Michael Dubner July 25, 2019

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Most analysts just use receiving yards to regress touchdowns, so finding that there is signal with adding targets was novel.((And it was interesting to see that targets are actually negatively correlated with touchdowns, given the same…...

5 Wide Receivers Primed to Score More in 2019: Positive Touchdown Regression

Michael Dubner July 18, 2019

Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a Wide Receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s ability to score touchdowns — and…...

Zero RB Will Win Someone $1,000,000: NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship Strategies

Michael Dubner July 15, 2019

Michael Dubner looks at how we can use the Zero RB fantasy football draft strategy in the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship tournament.  It’s been nearly six years since RotoViz’s Shawn Siegele penned the ground-breaking article “Zero RB, Antifragility, and the Myth of Value Based Drafting.” Despite the re-emergence of workhorse RBs, Zero RB is still thriving. While Zero RB may be effective in traditional…...

The Roster Construction You Can Use In Every DRAFT Best Ball Championship Entry

Michael Dubner June 27, 2019

We previously found that it may be best to wait until August to enter the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship, but there are some benefits to drafting at the beginning of the offseason. Teams that draft in August tend to post higher average scores. However, teams that draft earlier in the offseason can take advantage of facing opponents with lower scores, which may help you get…...

When Should You Enter Your DRAFT Best Ball Championship Teams? The Optimal Draft Month for Maximizing Points

Michael Dubner June 18, 2019

Michael Dubner continues the DRAFT Best Ball article series where we will now focus our attention on the DRAFT Best Ball Championship and improve our chances of taking down the $1 Million first-place prize.  Since the NFL DRAFT Best Ball Championship opened this offseason, over 13,000 teams have already entered the contest, with some owners perhaps drafting over $1,000 worth of entries. This leads us…...

Box Score Scout Player Comparisons: Second-Round 2019 NFL Draft

Michael Dubner May 7, 2019

  After exploring the Box Score Scout’s player comparisons for first-round picks in the 2019 NFL Draft last week, we’ll do the same for fantasy football relevant players drafted in the second round. The media’s bold player comparisons for first-round NFL Draft picks are generally acceptable, since first-round picks are usually high quality prospects. However, as we get into Day 2 of the NFL Draft,…...

Box Score Scout: 2019 NFL Draft First-Round Player Comparisons

Michael Dubner April 30, 2019

  February to April is ruled by Draft Twitter. Countless hot takes, I’m right/you’re wrong, and no middle ground. As always, there were plenty of surprising draft picks, which certainly affects fantasy football value. While the media oftentimes uses the best case scenario for player comparisons, the RotoViz Box Score Scout has an NFL player comparison tool that provides rational, objective SimScore comparisons. Now that…...

The Happy Medium: Roster Five QBs and TEs in DRAFT Best Ball

Michael Dubner April 28, 2019

The RotoViz DRAFT Roster Construction Tool allows us to analyze the win rates of specific roster constructions. In the earlier installments of the DRAFT NFL Best Ball Roster Construction Guide, we explored the win rates of teams that drafted six QBs and TEs as well as teams that limited themselves to four onesie positions. Here we will explore the win rates for teams that drafted a…...

draftkings week 17

Limit the Onesie Positions in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues

Michael Dubner April 12, 2019

In the second installment of the DRAFT NFL Best Ball Roster Construction Guide, Michael Dubner finds a structural advantage using the 2-QB, 2-TE draft strategy. In my previous article, we found the one instance where the 3-QB, 3-TE Roster construction may provide a structural edge in DRAFT Best Ball leagues. Now that we’ve explored the roster construction that dedicates six spots to the onesie positions, we’ll now explore the…...

MFL10

Should We Ever Roster Six QBs and TEs in DRAFT NFL Best Ball Leagues?

Michael Dubner March 31, 2019

Quarterbacks and tight ends are often overlooked in NFL Best Ball drafts, but Michael Dubner uses the RotoViz DRAFT Roster Construction Explorer to find a structural edge at these positions. Savvy season-long fantasy football drafters have routinely gained an edge using the Late Round Quarterback strategy, and owners are also realizing that elite Tight Ends provide a league-tilting advantage at the position. Although many think they have figured out the QB and…...

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