Large-field GPPs are primarily won in three key areas: 1) player projections, 2) roster construction, and 3) ownership.
Groupthink can run rampant through the fantasy football grapevines and cause DFSers to concentrate on just one scenario in a player’s possible range of outcomes. What was once a good play in a vacuum can become sub-optimal as chalk. And what may feel thin at first may actually be plus-EV at low ownership.
One of the benefits to using the RotoViz Lineup Optimizer is that it provides information that is unbiased from public touting. Our goal here is to uncover players and roster constructions that are going overlooked by the public and can help vault us to the top of the leaderboards and bink a large GPP prize.
Week 6 DFS FanDuel Lineup Optimizer
Below is the optimal lineup using the RotoViz Lineup Optimizer.
I forced the optimizer to include a stack since it is basically mandatory to stack your quarterback with at least one pass-catcher in order to take down a FanDuel GPP. I also configured the flex to fill with a running back, since RBs tend to provide more upside in FanDuel’s half-PPR scoring format.
In the “Player Info” tab, I excluded all players with a Game Level Similarity Projection (GLSP) below 5 points or a value below 0.5. I also manually excluded all injured players or players I did not want to include in lineups but are popping in GLSP.
Warning: The DFS Lineup Optimizer is high on Dante Pettis. I can see a scenario where Pettis has a spiked-week score, but I’m personally not going to play someone who’s just running wind sprints. I’ve excluded him from the player pool as well.
Stack the Falcons Passing Offense
We highlighted the Falcons @ Texans game stack last week, which exploded for a combined 85 points.
The Falcons are primed for another shootout as 3-point favorites with a 27-point implied team total, and a game total has been bet up to 51 points (second highest). The Falcons versus Cardinals projects to be a fast-paced matchup, as the teams combine for the second-fastest pace-of-play in neutral game scripts.
The passing attack intersects with Matt Ryan, who leads the NFL in completions, is second in passing yards and passing touchdowns, and third in Expected Points per game. Ryan is typically viewed as a high-floor, low-variance fantasy player, but last week’s 32.9-FanDuel-point performance proves he is capable of a spike week. Another ceiling game for Ryan is likely given the expected increased play volume and the cake matchup.
Besides nailing the Falcons vs. Texans as the shootout of the week, another key was highlighting Calvin Ridley as the best ceiling per price-ownership combination among Falcons pass-catchers. We’re going to double-down on that again this week and prioritize Ridley since FanDuel failed to adjust Ridley’s salary. He’s priced as the WR33 but leads Falcons pass-catchers in Adjusted Yards per Attempt.
Tight End Flow Chart: Austin Hooper versus the Cardinals
Al Zeidenfeld’s Flow Chart is to roster whatever TE is playing the Cardinals. The Fantasy Strength-of-Schedule Streaming App confirms the Cardinals are the easiest matchup for opposing tight ends. Hooper leads all TEs in fantasy points per game, and the cake matchup is the cherry on top. The DFS Lineup Optimizer projects Hooper to be both the top value and top overall scorer at the TE position in Week 6.
Cooper Kupp Leads All WRs in Expected Fantasy Points
Kupp is coming off three-straight 20-plus FanDuel point performances but is still only costs $7,800. He should be an $8k receiver at this point.
Dalvin Cook – Top Projected RB
While Cook draws a tough matchup against the stout Eagles run defense, he’s a home-favorite, game-script independent back with the third most opportunities per game. Cook’s 50th percentile GLSP Projection is 4.5 points higher than the RB2.
RB2 and Flex Rotation
Besides Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry (seventh in opportunities; five total touchdowns; just $6,700) and Mark Ingram (six TDS; Bengals getting gashed by RBs) are finding their way into many optimal lineups.
It’s always a good idea to roster volume at a reasonable price. Leonard Fournette (third in Expected Points), Le’Veon Bell (fourth in EP), and Nick Chubb (fourth in opportunities/g) are all under $8k. It’s reasonable to project them all for more points than Ezekiel Elliott who is the highest-priced non-QB on the slate. Elliott is certainly still an awesome play, but is not a must-play.
GLSP is much higher on the KC Chiefs RBs than consensus. If both Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins miss Week 6, then Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy are upside tournament options given the offensive scoring environment, as long as ownership remains depressed.
The key to unlocking the slate is David Johnson’s availability. If Johnson is inactive, I will strongly consider pressing the lock button on Chase Edmonds. Edmonds should step directly into the same role as Johnson, but at $5,200 – which is just $100 more than Kalen Ballage who hasn’t reached double-digit fantasy points the season.
Given the volatility of the position, WR is almost always the position you should use to differentiate your lineup from the field. As a general rule of thumb, I’m willing to eat the chalk at RB and fade chalky WRs in FanDuel GPPs. If I set the Randomness to 50% on the DFS Lineup Optimizer and generate 50 lineups, the optimizer builds lineups with the following WR exposures:
|Will Fuller V||WR||6%|
Notes on players not mentioned earlier:
- Last week was Will Fuller week. This week is DeAndre Hopkins week. The Texans @ Chiefs game has a 55-point total.
- How much exposure I have to Will Fuller will depend on his ownership projection. Rosters high variance players when they are low owned.
- Get exposure to Julio Jones and Larry Fitzgerald in your Falcons vs Cardinals game stacks. Jones is second in the NFL in air yards. Fitzgerald is sixth in targets and costs just $5,600. If David Johnson is ruled out, you can roster both Edmonds and Fitzgerald in the same lineup for just $10,800.
- Amari Cooper is second in receiving yards and draws the Jets secondary surrendering the eighth-most receiving yards.
- Michael Thomas is first in Weighted Opportunity Rating. I personally won’t roster Thomas on FanDuel without the TD expectation that comes with Drew Brees, but that was also wrong last week.