After exploring the Box Score Scout’s player comparisons for first-round picks in the 2019 NFL Draft last week, we’ll do the same for fantasy football relevant players drafted in the second round.
The media’s bold player comparisons for first-round NFL Draft picks are generally acceptable, since first-round picks are usually high quality prospects. However, as we get into Day 2 of the NFL Draft, the outlandish player comparisons become more comedic.
Michael Dubner leverages the RotoViz Box Score Scout’s player comparison tool to generate rational, objective SimScore player comparisons that provides a more fair representation of a player’s range of outcomes.
The Sandwich Technique: In medical school, I learned about the sandwich technique for providing feedback to patients and colleagues. This is a way to soften the impact of the criticism and to develop rapport. If you want gentle player comparisons that won’t offend your favorite NFL prospects, then the RotoViz Box Score Scout is not for you. The Box Score Scout player comparison tool is ruthless, as seen with Daniel Jones’ comparisons last week.
36. WR DEEBO SAMUEL (SOUTH CAROLINA) – SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Analysis: Earlier this offseason, Hasan Rahim wrote an in depth profile of Samuel. Despite being an older prospect who redshirted, Samuel never officially broke-out. However, his special teams usage is encouraging, and Kyle Shanahan should be able to maximize his hybrid skill set. Samuel will be behind George Kittle in the target pecking order, but could surpass Dante Pettis as the top wide receiver. Samuel’s Box Score Scout player comparisons suggest a wide range of outcomes, and my #gut tells me that’s spot on.
42. QB DREW LOCK (MISSOURI) – DENVER BRONCOS
Analysis: We should be skeptical of any quarterback not picked at the top of the first-round. He’ll have to sit behind veteran Joe Flacco to begin his career, but at least Lock’s ADP is becoming cheaper in superflex dynasty leagues:
50. TE IRV SMITH JR. (ALABAMA) – MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Analysis: A Day-2 draft pick from Alabama who declared at a really young age will always spark interest in the fantasy football community. John Lapinski’s list of TEs who finished their college careers before turning 21 will make you salivate. If the Vikings don’t end up trading veteran Kyle Rudolph, then we will likely need to wait until 2020 before we get to see a lot of Smith, at which point Smith could become a valuable receiving TE in fantasy football.
51. WR A.J. BROWN (OLE MISS) – TENNESSEE TITANS
Analysis: Given Brown’s young breakout age, college production, and declaring early for the draft, he entered the 2019 NFL Draft as one of my favorite WR prospects. However, after landing on the Titans, Brown is less of a slam-dunk for early career production. There are plenty of excuses we can make for the Titans passing attack the last few years, but at this point I will need Marcus Mariota to prove that he can support reliable fantasy football relevant pass-catchers until I believe it again. Brown still has one of the highest floors of this year’s draft class, but he is more likely to hurt Corey Davis’ fantasy value than provide consistent fantasy football value on his own as a rookie.
52. TE DREW SAMPLE (WASHINGTON) – CINCINNATI BENGALS
Analysis: Easily one of the most head-scratching picks of the 2019 NFL Draft. Many of Sample’s top player comparisons were drafted outside of the top-100. This pick has “bust” written all over it. Hard pass.
53. RB MILES SANDERS (PENN ST.) – PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Analysis: Sanders’ Box Score Scout player comparisons is a mixed bag, but since he played behind Saquon Barkley his first few years, I didn’t expect his comps to pop off the page. While the Eagles have employed a RBBC for several years, Philadelphia also hasn’t put this much resource equity into the position in quite some time. For an analytically-inclined front office, using a second-round pick on an RB speaks volumes as to how they view Sanders.
Sanders has the three-down skill-set that the Eagles backfield has lacked in recent years. I think it’s more likely than not that Sanders sees the bulk of the RB touches, with Jordan Howard becoming a short-yardage grinder. Sanders has a massive ceiling on the explosive Eagles offense behind a top offensive line. I’ll be bullish on Sanders from Day 1.
56. WR MECOLE HARDMAN (GEORGIA) – KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Analysis: Clearly a pick intended to replace Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs surprised many by passing on other talented WRs in favor of Hardman. While Hardman’s closest WR player comparisons aren’t that desirable, I’m willing to throw out most of my pre-draft evaluation of Hardman given his draft capital and landing spot on the Chiefs. Hardman is ranked No. 8 in the RotoViz Rookie Rankings, and three rankers have him fifth on their board. I can feel the fire from here.
57. WR JJ ARCEGA-WHITESIDE (STANFORD) – PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Analysis: There are a lot of names on this list of player comparisons for Arcega-Whiteside that will get the juices flowing, including now-teammate Alshon Jeffery. The Eagles may have drafted Arcega-Whiteside to eventually becomes Jeffery’s replacement. Jeffery is still signed through 2021, but could become a future cut-candidae given his $15M cap hits in 2020 and 2021. Arcega-Whiteside will likely have little fantasy football value in 2019, but could become a factor in 2020 and beyond given the unknown status of Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, and Nelson Agholor.
59. WR PARRIS CAMPBELL (OHIO ST.) – INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Analysis: Like Hardman, Campbell benefits from landing on an explosive offense and a good coaching staff. I also think the fact that RotoViz has Campbell over Isabella in the Rookie WR Tournament speaks volumes as to what we think his chances are of succeeding.
62. WR ANDY ISABELLA (UMASS) – ARIZONA CARDINALS
Analysis: Isabella’s jaw-dropping 52.2 percent college dominator rating helped make him the analytics-Cinderella of the 2019 NFL Draft. Most of his closest player comparisons have had success in the NFL. Landing in the most exciting up-and-coming offense led by QB Kyler Murray and HC Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid system adds fuel to fire. RotoViz is certainly not shy with our Rookie Ranking of Isabella:
64. WR DK METCALF (OLE MISS) – SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Analysis: After posting the second best Freak Score in the RotoViz database history (only behind Calvin Johnson), a division formed between the pro- and anti- Metcalf groups. Given Metcalf’s first-round pre-draft projection, it seems like the anti-Metcalf side is winning the debate after he fell to the last pick of the second round. Here’s a more in-depth prospect profile of Metcalf. The RotoViz Box Score Scout seem to heavily weight his red flags and draft capital (or lack thereof), as his closest player comparisons are not encouraging.
As for his landing spot in Seattle, Metcalf has a good chance of earning starting snaps early in his rookie season, assuming Doug Baldwin will retire. Metcalf will be catching passes from one of the most efficient QBs in Russell Wilson, but volume will be an issue, as the Seahawks are one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL.
Metcalf reminds us of the human element of football, as his draft day video will bring you to tears.
Let me know who your favorite NFL player comparisons are for second-round skill position players @Michael_Dubner.
I also encourage you to check out the RotoViz Rookie Fantasy Football Tournament for a more in-depth analysis on each prospect.