RotoDoc

Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz. Mathematics Ph.D. 3x qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

NASCAR DFS Picks

DraftKings NASCAR Las Vegas Picks and Model Projections

This weekend’s DraftKings NASCAR Las Vegas projections are amped up. I’ve included my Sim Score projections, which I talked about in the DraftKings NASCAR Las Vegas strategy article. Also, the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup Optimizer is updated with the machine learning model projections, and the NASCAR Splits App will help you find statistics for each driver’s history at Las Vegas and other similar tracks. Also be sure to…...

Joe Williams – 2017’s Most Underrated Workhorse Back

In preparation for the RotoViz Radio 2017 NFL Draft series of podcasts, I was going through some different prospects trying to figure out which running backs had a successful combine. When I was perusing the data, one name jumped out at me for his combine measurables, and when I went and looked at his college statistics, the production also caught my eye. That guy is…...

NASCAR DFS Picks

DraftKings NASCAR Atlanta Picks and Model Projections

With qualifying and practice over, it’s time to dive into the DraftKings NASCAR Atlanta picks, fades, and model projections. I’ve updated the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup Optimizer with the model projections, and the NASCAR Splits App will help you find the statistics for each driver’s history at Atlanta and other similar tracks…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

NASCAR DFS Strategy: Atlanta QuikTrip 500

Atlanta Motor Speedway is a 1.54-mile quad oval with a 20-year old racing surface. The aged track is extremely abrasive, causing significant tire wear early into a fuel run. Thus, pit strategy often comes into play, which is how Jimmie Johnson took the race win last year. However, this year there’s an added twist with the introduction of NASCAR’s new race segments. Teams will be…...

NASCAR DFS Strategy

NASCAR DFS: Analyzing the Winning Lineup from a Wild Daytona 500

The Daytona 500 is now in our rear-view mirror. Kurt Busch came away with the win in NASCAR’s biggest race, adding to what is likely a Hall of Fame resume. I’m going to review the winning DraftKings lineup, as well as my 8th place lineup from the $300k contest, and give some brief thoughts on my picks and model results for this past weekend’s race…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

NASCAR DraftKings Daytona 500 Strategy

The NASCAR DraftKings Daytona 500 slate is a big one. DraftKings has put up a $500k prize pool, with $50k to first place. You know I’ll be trying to win the slate, but if I can’t, I certainly want a RotoViz NASCAR reader to take it down. Here is my NASCAR DraftKings Daytona 500 strategy, laid out on a platter for you…....

NASCAR DFS Daytona

DraftKings NASCAR Daytona 500 Picks and Model Projections

Nick Giffen, AKA @RotoDoc is a Ph.D in mathematics, a two-time qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event, and placed 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th in the $125k DFS tournament for The Clash at Daytona, one year after placing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the same event. RotoDoc also finished 8th out of over 20,000 entrants in the $400k DraftKings NASCAR Daytona 500 slate last year, after being in…...

NASCAR DFS Lineup

NASCAR DFS Picks: Can-Am Duels at Daytona

The Duels at Daytona are two qualifying races that set the starting lineup for the Daytona 500. There are varying agendas during these races, with some drivers trying to race their way in, other drivers locked in and preserving equipment, and several drivers racing to get points under NASCAR’s new format. I’ll give my NASCAR DFS picks and fades for each of the two races…....

NASCAR DFS Talladega

NASCAR DFS: Analyzing My GPP Winning Lineup from The Clash

I feel like this is a bit of deja vu. Last year I took 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place in $100k NASCAR DFS slate for The Clash (then called the Sprint Unlimited). This year? 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th in the same slate (which had a $125k prize pool this year)…....

NASCAR DFS Strategy

NASCAR DFS Picks and Projections: The Clash at Daytona

The Clash at Daytona is this Saturday, and with qualifying all set (by a random draw), it’s time to give NASCAR DFS picks and two kinds of projections for Saturday’s slate. Hopefully I can help you all in this same slate where I finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the $100k GPP last year…....

NASCAR DFS Strategy

NASCAR DFS Strategy: The Clash at Daytona

The first race of the 20176 NASCAR season is almost here! DraftKings has released a NASCAR DFS slate for The Clash at Daytona. I’m hoping to repeat last year’s success, where I finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the $100k GPP for this very slate. I’ll break down my NASCAR DFS strategy for this unique slate. This NASCAR DFS strategy article will tell you what…...

NASCAR DFS Talladega

The 2017 NASCAR DFS Season Primer – Ford Drivers

Here’s your 2017 NASCAR DFS season preview for the Ford drivers. I’ll touch on their strengths, weaknesses, and expected range of outcomes, along with a pointer or two here or there for when to use these drivers in certain DFS contests. There’s also a table at the end with the average driver rating at each track type for each Ford driver from the 2016 season…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

The 2017 NASCAR DFS Season Primer – Toyota Drivers

Here’s your 2017 NASCAR DFS season preview for the Toyota drivers. I’ll touch on their strengths, weaknesses, and expected range of outcomes, along with a pointer or two here or there for when to use these drivers in certain DFS contests. There’s also a table at the end with the average driver rating at each track type for each Toyota driver from the 2016 season…....

mike pouncey

Pythagorean Wins: Who Got Lucky in 2016

Although NFL sabermetrics aren’t nearly on the same level as MLB sabermetrics, one useful metric is Pythagorean wins. Pythagorean wins are used to determine the number of games a team “should have won” based off of their points for and points against. I’m going to look at which teams won more and less than expected in an attempt to find regression candidates and evaluate what…...

DraftKings NASCAR Texas

The 2017 NASCAR DFS Season Primer – Chevrolet Drivers

Here’s your 2017 NASCAR DFS season preview for the Chevrolet drivers. I’ll touch on their strengths, weaknesses, and expected range of outcomes, along with a pointer or two here or there for when to use these drivers in certain DFS contests. There’s also a table at the end with the average driver rating at each track type for each Chevy driver from the 2016 season…....

NASCAR DFS picks

NASCAR DFS: Does NASCAR’s New Race Format Impact Strategy?

NASCAR announced a major overhaul to both its points system as well as to the race format for the 2017 season. The goal is muli-purposed: to encourage racing throughout the race, to reward both consistency and winning, to provide a cushion for the season’s best drivers in the playoffs so that one bad race doesn’t eliminate them, and to give TV viewers pre-planned commercial breaks…...

RB Model Performance

Evaluating My 2016 RB Model Performance

Prior to the season I created a machine learning model to project running back performance in 2016, and the results are in. This article is intended not only to evaluate my RB model performance, but to figure out the “why” behind the results and to brainstorm how to improve the model going forward…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

DraftKings NASCAR Las Vegas Picks and Model Projections

This weekend’s DraftKings NASCAR Las Vegas projections are amped up. I’ve included my Sim Score projections, which I talked about in the DraftKings NASCAR Las Vegas strategy article. Also, the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup Optimizer is updated with the machine learning model projections, and the NASCAR Splits App will help you find statistics for each driver’s history at Las Vegas and other similar tracks. Also be sure to…...

Joe Williams – 2017’s Most Underrated Workhorse Back

In preparation for the RotoViz Radio 2017 NFL Draft series of podcasts, I was going through some different prospects trying to figure out which running backs had a successful combine. When I was perusing the data, one name jumped out at me for his combine measurables, and when I went and looked at his college statistics, the production also caught my eye. That guy is…...

NASCAR DFS Picks

DraftKings NASCAR Atlanta Picks and Model Projections

With qualifying and practice over, it’s time to dive into the DraftKings NASCAR Atlanta picks, fades, and model projections. I’ve updated the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup Optimizer with the model projections, and the NASCAR Splits App will help you find the statistics for each driver’s history at Atlanta and other similar tracks…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

NASCAR DFS Strategy: Atlanta QuikTrip 500

Atlanta Motor Speedway is a 1.54-mile quad oval with a 20-year old racing surface. The aged track is extremely abrasive, causing significant tire wear early into a fuel run. Thus, pit strategy often comes into play, which is how Jimmie Johnson took the race win last year. However, this year there’s an added twist with the introduction of NASCAR’s new race segments. Teams will be…...

NASCAR DFS Strategy

NASCAR DFS: Analyzing the Winning Lineup from a Wild Daytona 500

The Daytona 500 is now in our rear-view mirror. Kurt Busch came away with the win in NASCAR’s biggest race, adding to what is likely a Hall of Fame resume. I’m going to review the winning DraftKings lineup, as well as my 8th place lineup from the $300k contest, and give some brief thoughts on my picks and model results for this past weekend’s race…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

NASCAR DraftKings Daytona 500 Strategy

The NASCAR DraftKings Daytona 500 slate is a big one. DraftKings has put up a $500k prize pool, with $50k to first place. You know I’ll be trying to win the slate, but if I can’t, I certainly want a RotoViz NASCAR reader to take it down. Here is my NASCAR DraftKings Daytona 500 strategy, laid out on a platter for you…....

NASCAR DFS Daytona

DraftKings NASCAR Daytona 500 Picks and Model Projections

Nick Giffen, AKA @RotoDoc is a Ph.D in mathematics, a two-time qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event, and placed 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th in the $125k DFS tournament for The Clash at Daytona, one year after placing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the same event. RotoDoc also finished 8th out of over 20,000 entrants in the $400k DraftKings NASCAR Daytona 500 slate last year, after being in…...

NASCAR DFS Lineup

NASCAR DFS Picks: Can-Am Duels at Daytona

The Duels at Daytona are two qualifying races that set the starting lineup for the Daytona 500. There are varying agendas during these races, with some drivers trying to race their way in, other drivers locked in and preserving equipment, and several drivers racing to get points under NASCAR’s new format. I’ll give my NASCAR DFS picks and fades for each of the two races…....

NASCAR DFS Talladega

NASCAR DFS: Analyzing My GPP Winning Lineup from The Clash

I feel like this is a bit of deja vu. Last year I took 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place in $100k NASCAR DFS slate for The Clash (then called the Sprint Unlimited). This year? 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th in the same slate (which had a $125k prize pool this year)…....

NASCAR DFS Strategy

NASCAR DFS Picks and Projections: The Clash at Daytona

The Clash at Daytona is this Saturday, and with qualifying all set (by a random draw), it’s time to give NASCAR DFS picks and two kinds of projections for Saturday’s slate. Hopefully I can help you all in this same slate where I finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the $100k GPP last year…....

NASCAR DFS Strategy

NASCAR DFS Strategy: The Clash at Daytona

The first race of the 20176 NASCAR season is almost here! DraftKings has released a NASCAR DFS slate for The Clash at Daytona. I’m hoping to repeat last year’s success, where I finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the $100k GPP for this very slate. I’ll break down my NASCAR DFS strategy for this unique slate. This NASCAR DFS strategy article will tell you what…...

NASCAR DFS Talladega

The 2017 NASCAR DFS Season Primer – Ford Drivers

Here’s your 2017 NASCAR DFS season preview for the Ford drivers. I’ll touch on their strengths, weaknesses, and expected range of outcomes, along with a pointer or two here or there for when to use these drivers in certain DFS contests. There’s also a table at the end with the average driver rating at each track type for each Ford driver from the 2016 season…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

The 2017 NASCAR DFS Season Primer – Toyota Drivers

Here’s your 2017 NASCAR DFS season preview for the Toyota drivers. I’ll touch on their strengths, weaknesses, and expected range of outcomes, along with a pointer or two here or there for when to use these drivers in certain DFS contests. There’s also a table at the end with the average driver rating at each track type for each Toyota driver from the 2016 season…....

mike pouncey

Pythagorean Wins: Who Got Lucky in 2016

Although NFL sabermetrics aren’t nearly on the same level as MLB sabermetrics, one useful metric is Pythagorean wins. Pythagorean wins are used to determine the number of games a team “should have won” based off of their points for and points against. I’m going to look at which teams won more and less than expected in an attempt to find regression candidates and evaluate what…...

DraftKings NASCAR Texas

The 2017 NASCAR DFS Season Primer – Chevrolet Drivers

Here’s your 2017 NASCAR DFS season preview for the Chevrolet drivers. I’ll touch on their strengths, weaknesses, and expected range of outcomes, along with a pointer or two here or there for when to use these drivers in certain DFS contests. There’s also a table at the end with the average driver rating at each track type for each Chevy driver from the 2016 season…....

NASCAR DFS picks

NASCAR DFS: Does NASCAR’s New Race Format Impact Strategy?

NASCAR announced a major overhaul to both its points system as well as to the race format for the 2017 season. The goal is muli-purposed: to encourage racing throughout the race, to reward both consistency and winning, to provide a cushion for the season’s best drivers in the playoffs so that one bad race doesn’t eliminate them, and to give TV viewers pre-planned commercial breaks…...

RB Model Performance

Evaluating My 2016 RB Model Performance

Prior to the season I created a machine learning model to project running back performance in 2016, and the results are in. This article is intended not only to evaluate my RB model performance, but to figure out the “why” behind the results and to brainstorm how to improve the model going forward…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

DraftKings NASCAR Las Vegas Picks and Model Projections

This weekend’s DraftKings NASCAR Las Vegas projections are amped up. I’ve included my Sim Score projections, which I talked about in the DraftKings NASCAR Las Vegas strategy article. Also, the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup Optimizer is updated with the machine learning model projections, and the NASCAR Splits App will help you find statistics for each driver’s history at Las Vegas and other similar tracks. Also be sure to…...

Joe Williams – 2017’s Most Underrated Workhorse Back

In preparation for the RotoViz Radio 2017 NFL Draft series of podcasts, I was going through some different prospects trying to figure out which running backs had a successful combine. When I was perusing the data, one name jumped out at me for his combine measurables, and when I went and looked at his college statistics, the production also caught my eye. That guy is…...

NASCAR DFS Picks

DraftKings NASCAR Atlanta Picks and Model Projections

With qualifying and practice over, it’s time to dive into the DraftKings NASCAR Atlanta picks, fades, and model projections. I’ve updated the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup Optimizer with the model projections, and the NASCAR Splits App will help you find the statistics for each driver’s history at Atlanta and other similar tracks…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

NASCAR DFS Strategy: Atlanta QuikTrip 500

Atlanta Motor Speedway is a 1.54-mile quad oval with a 20-year old racing surface. The aged track is extremely abrasive, causing significant tire wear early into a fuel run. Thus, pit strategy often comes into play, which is how Jimmie Johnson took the race win last year. However, this year there’s an added twist with the introduction of NASCAR’s new race segments. Teams will be…...

NASCAR DFS Strategy

NASCAR DFS: Analyzing the Winning Lineup from a Wild Daytona 500

The Daytona 500 is now in our rear-view mirror. Kurt Busch came away with the win in NASCAR’s biggest race, adding to what is likely a Hall of Fame resume. I’m going to review the winning DraftKings lineup, as well as my 8th place lineup from the $300k contest, and give some brief thoughts on my picks and model results for this past weekend’s race…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

NASCAR DraftKings Daytona 500 Strategy

The NASCAR DraftKings Daytona 500 slate is a big one. DraftKings has put up a $500k prize pool, with $50k to first place. You know I’ll be trying to win the slate, but if I can’t, I certainly want a RotoViz NASCAR reader to take it down. Here is my NASCAR DraftKings Daytona 500 strategy, laid out on a platter for you…....

NASCAR DFS Daytona

DraftKings NASCAR Daytona 500 Picks and Model Projections

Nick Giffen, AKA @RotoDoc is a Ph.D in mathematics, a two-time qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event, and placed 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th in the $125k DFS tournament for The Clash at Daytona, one year after placing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the same event. RotoDoc also finished 8th out of over 20,000 entrants in the $400k DraftKings NASCAR Daytona 500 slate last year, after being in…...

NASCAR DFS Lineup

NASCAR DFS Picks: Can-Am Duels at Daytona

The Duels at Daytona are two qualifying races that set the starting lineup for the Daytona 500. There are varying agendas during these races, with some drivers trying to race their way in, other drivers locked in and preserving equipment, and several drivers racing to get points under NASCAR’s new format. I’ll give my NASCAR DFS picks and fades for each of the two races…....

NASCAR DFS Talladega

NASCAR DFS: Analyzing My GPP Winning Lineup from The Clash

I feel like this is a bit of deja vu. Last year I took 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place in $100k NASCAR DFS slate for The Clash (then called the Sprint Unlimited). This year? 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th in the same slate (which had a $125k prize pool this year)…....

NASCAR DFS Strategy

NASCAR DFS Picks and Projections: The Clash at Daytona

The Clash at Daytona is this Saturday, and with qualifying all set (by a random draw), it’s time to give NASCAR DFS picks and two kinds of projections for Saturday’s slate. Hopefully I can help you all in this same slate where I finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the $100k GPP last year…....

NASCAR DFS Strategy

NASCAR DFS Strategy: The Clash at Daytona

The first race of the 20176 NASCAR season is almost here! DraftKings has released a NASCAR DFS slate for The Clash at Daytona. I’m hoping to repeat last year’s success, where I finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the $100k GPP for this very slate. I’ll break down my NASCAR DFS strategy for this unique slate. This NASCAR DFS strategy article will tell you what…...

NASCAR DFS Talladega

The 2017 NASCAR DFS Season Primer – Ford Drivers

Here’s your 2017 NASCAR DFS season preview for the Ford drivers. I’ll touch on their strengths, weaknesses, and expected range of outcomes, along with a pointer or two here or there for when to use these drivers in certain DFS contests. There’s also a table at the end with the average driver rating at each track type for each Ford driver from the 2016 season…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

The 2017 NASCAR DFS Season Primer – Toyota Drivers

Here’s your 2017 NASCAR DFS season preview for the Toyota drivers. I’ll touch on their strengths, weaknesses, and expected range of outcomes, along with a pointer or two here or there for when to use these drivers in certain DFS contests. There’s also a table at the end with the average driver rating at each track type for each Toyota driver from the 2016 season…....

mike pouncey

Pythagorean Wins: Who Got Lucky in 2016

Although NFL sabermetrics aren’t nearly on the same level as MLB sabermetrics, one useful metric is Pythagorean wins. Pythagorean wins are used to determine the number of games a team “should have won” based off of their points for and points against. I’m going to look at which teams won more and less than expected in an attempt to find regression candidates and evaluate what…...

DraftKings NASCAR Texas

The 2017 NASCAR DFS Season Primer – Chevrolet Drivers

Here’s your 2017 NASCAR DFS season preview for the Chevrolet drivers. I’ll touch on their strengths, weaknesses, and expected range of outcomes, along with a pointer or two here or there for when to use these drivers in certain DFS contests. There’s also a table at the end with the average driver rating at each track type for each Chevy driver from the 2016 season…....

NASCAR DFS picks

NASCAR DFS: Does NASCAR’s New Race Format Impact Strategy?

NASCAR announced a major overhaul to both its points system as well as to the race format for the 2017 season. The goal is muli-purposed: to encourage racing throughout the race, to reward both consistency and winning, to provide a cushion for the season’s best drivers in the playoffs so that one bad race doesn’t eliminate them, and to give TV viewers pre-planned commercial breaks…...

RB Model Performance

Evaluating My 2016 RB Model Performance

Prior to the season I created a machine learning model to project running back performance in 2016, and the results are in. This article is intended not only to evaluate my RB model performance, but to figure out the “why” behind the results and to brainstorm how to improve the model going forward…....

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