RotoDoc

Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz. Mathematics Ph.D. 3x qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

NASCAR DFS Picks

NASCAR DFS Dover Picks, Ownership and Race Projections

After winning a Fantasy Racing World Championship qualifier last week, I’m ready to move on from those. However, if you are playing any FRWC qualifier events, I have a pick specifically geared toward that in this week’s NASCAR DFS Dover article…....

NASCAR DFS Lineup

NASCAR DFS Lineup Analysis: FRWC Qualifying Winning Lineup

I’m going to start a weekly NASCAR DFS lineup analysis series where I break down my best and worst lineup, along with the winning GPP lineup from the biggest GPP contest of the week. This week we look at my Fantasy Racing World Championship qualifier winning lineup along with my worst lineup from The $300k Beast GPP and BDholla89’s winning lineup from The Beast. If…...

NASCAR DFS Picks

NASCAR DFS Charlotte Picks, Ownership and Race Projections

After a week off for the All-Star break, we’re back with 600 miles for a monster NASCAR DFS Charlotte slate. DraftKings has a $300k GPP with $50k to first place. Hopefully one of you all will win the NASCAR DFS Charlotte monster GPP. As usual I’ll give my picks, points projections, and ownership projections for Sunday night’s race…....

Team Wins

Using Sabermetrics to Project 2017 NFL Team Wins

Earlier this offseason I looked at which teams got lucky in 2016 from a sabermetrics perspective regarding won-loss record. Using each team’s Pythagorean win percentage, we can use their 2017 schedules to give an estimate of wins for each team in 2017…....

NFL Draft Marlon Mack

3 Rookies We’ve Ranked Too Low

We just released our 2017 Post-Draft rookie rankings, where 23 RotoViz contributors ranked the rookies 1-50 (or even deeper in some cases). The composite rankings are great because the provide a bit of a wisdom of the crowd approach to rookie ranks…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

NASCAR DFS Kansas Picks, Ownership and Race Projections

After another GPP winning weekend for me, I’m excited for the NASCAR DFS Kansas slate — our first night race of the year. As usual I’ll give my picks, points projections, and ownership projections for Saturday night’s race…....

QB Success Model

The Post-Draft 2017 QB Success Model

Earlier this offseason I created the new and improved version of my QB success model. The QB success model uses several machine learning techniques to find the important variables in predicting QB success and in the implementation of the success classification itself. I’ve updated the results with the actual draft positions of the QBs from the 2017 NFL draft…....

NASCAR DFS picks

NASCAR DFS Talladega Picks, Ownership and Race Projections

Nick Giffen, AKA @RotoDoc is a Ph.D in mathematics, a two-time qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event, and placed 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th in the $125k DFS tournament for The Clash at Daytona, which is at a restrictor plate much like this weekend’s NASCAR DFS Talladega slate…....

2017 NFL Draft Reaction: A Look at Joe Williams on the 49ers

Joe Williams was taken by the San Francisco 49ers in the fourth round of this year’s NFL Draft at pick 121 overall. The 49ers traded up to get Williams, giving up their 143rd and 161st overall picks to the Indianapolis Colts, who would later pick physically and athletically similar running back Marlon Mack with that 143rd overall pick…....

Amara Darboh

2017 NFL Draft Reaction: Amara Darboh Goes to the Seattle Seahawks

Amara Darboh was drafted 106th overall by the Seattle Seahawks. Darboh’s immediate opportunity isn’t clear. Despite Kevin Cole’s opportunity scores showing Seattle as the seventh most desirable landing spot for wide receivers, Charles Kleinheksel’s air yards available metric shows Seattle is only the 18th most desirable landing spot. Before we dive into Darboh’s outlook, let’s take a look at him as a prospect…....

Rushing Efficiency

Who Led the League in Rushing Efficiency in 2016?

A few weeks ago I looked at 2016’s most efficient pass catchers, both from a raw perspective, as well as from a depth-adjusted perspective. Now it’s time to dive into the ball carriers that led the league in rushing efficiency. First I’ll just start with raw production, and in a follow-up article, I’ll look at a special kind of adjustment to provide further insight into the…...

The 2017 RotoViz Writing Contest

It’s that time of year again. We’re back with the 2017 version of the RotoViz writing contest. This is now year three of the contest, and in each of 2015 and 2016, we’ve had some great submissions that led to further writing opportunites here at the ‘Viz, with those writers still writing for us today. If you are this year’s winner, you’ll get a lifetime RotoViz pass,…...

DraftKings NASCAR Texas

DraftKings NASCAR Texas Picks, Sim Scores, Model Projections

After a huge weekend at Martinsville for me, including multiple GPP wins, I’m looking forward to the interesting challenges Texas will present. This weekend’s DraftKings NASCAR Texas projections focus heavily on the Sim Score projections. That’s because there are major changes to the Texas track, so we’ll need to rely on similar tracks for help…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

DraftKings NASCAR Martinsville Picks and Model Projections

This weekend’s DraftKings NASCAR Martinsville projections once again included my Sim Score projections. For a primer on those see the primer article. Also, I’m trying things out this week and will be tiering my GPP picks and fades into risk tiers. I tend to have a riskier tolerance, and since I know that’s not for everyone, I’ll be sure to provide a risk level with…...

Depth-Adjusted Efficiency — 2016’s Best and Worst

Yesterday I showed which players were 2016’s most- and least- efficient pass catchers from the perspective of yards per target over expectation (YPTOE). YPTOE situationally adjusted a player’s efficiency based on down, distance, and yard line. Today, I will depth-adjust those numbers, because not all passing depths are created equal…....

receiving efficiency

Which Players Had the Best Receiving Efficiency in 2016?

Last offseason I introduced my metrics YPCOE and YPTOE, which stand for Yards Per Carry/Target Over Expectation respectively. I used them to identify season-long regression candidates for rushing and receiving efficiency, and it successfully identified Davante Adams and Dez Bryant as bounce-back candidates, while also correctly identifying Tyler Lockett and Sammy Watkins as players likely to regress…....

The 2017 QB Prospect Model

Last year I created a model to predict quarterback success at the NFL level for prospects. The model was useful in that it helped identify traits that transfer to the NFL level, but it was certainly overfit and didn’t bring in enough data. I’ve updated the model for 2017, and the improvements paint a much better story of each QB’s NFL prospects. The results will…...

NASCAR DFS Picks

NASCAR DFS Dover Picks, Ownership and Race Projections

After winning a Fantasy Racing World Championship qualifier last week, I’m ready to move on from those. However, if you are playing any FRWC qualifier events, I have a pick specifically geared toward that in this week’s NASCAR DFS Dover article…....

NASCAR DFS Lineup

NASCAR DFS Lineup Analysis: FRWC Qualifying Winning Lineup

I’m going to start a weekly NASCAR DFS lineup analysis series where I break down my best and worst lineup, along with the winning GPP lineup from the biggest GPP contest of the week. This week we look at my Fantasy Racing World Championship qualifier winning lineup along with my worst lineup from The $300k Beast GPP and BDholla89’s winning lineup from The Beast. If…...

NASCAR DFS Picks

NASCAR DFS Charlotte Picks, Ownership and Race Projections

After a week off for the All-Star break, we’re back with 600 miles for a monster NASCAR DFS Charlotte slate. DraftKings has a $300k GPP with $50k to first place. Hopefully one of you all will win the NASCAR DFS Charlotte monster GPP. As usual I’ll give my picks, points projections, and ownership projections for Sunday night’s race…....

Team Wins

Using Sabermetrics to Project 2017 NFL Team Wins

Earlier this offseason I looked at which teams got lucky in 2016 from a sabermetrics perspective regarding won-loss record. Using each team’s Pythagorean win percentage, we can use their 2017 schedules to give an estimate of wins for each team in 2017…....

NFL Draft Marlon Mack

3 Rookies We’ve Ranked Too Low

We just released our 2017 Post-Draft rookie rankings, where 23 RotoViz contributors ranked the rookies 1-50 (or even deeper in some cases). The composite rankings are great because the provide a bit of a wisdom of the crowd approach to rookie ranks…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

NASCAR DFS Kansas Picks, Ownership and Race Projections

After another GPP winning weekend for me, I’m excited for the NASCAR DFS Kansas slate — our first night race of the year. As usual I’ll give my picks, points projections, and ownership projections for Saturday night’s race…....

QB Success Model

The Post-Draft 2017 QB Success Model

Earlier this offseason I created the new and improved version of my QB success model. The QB success model uses several machine learning techniques to find the important variables in predicting QB success and in the implementation of the success classification itself. I’ve updated the results with the actual draft positions of the QBs from the 2017 NFL draft…....

NASCAR DFS picks

NASCAR DFS Talladega Picks, Ownership and Race Projections

Nick Giffen, AKA @RotoDoc is a Ph.D in mathematics, a two-time qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event, and placed 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th in the $125k DFS tournament for The Clash at Daytona, which is at a restrictor plate much like this weekend’s NASCAR DFS Talladega slate…....

2017 NFL Draft Reaction: A Look at Joe Williams on the 49ers

Joe Williams was taken by the San Francisco 49ers in the fourth round of this year’s NFL Draft at pick 121 overall. The 49ers traded up to get Williams, giving up their 143rd and 161st overall picks to the Indianapolis Colts, who would later pick physically and athletically similar running back Marlon Mack with that 143rd overall pick…....

Amara Darboh

2017 NFL Draft Reaction: Amara Darboh Goes to the Seattle Seahawks

Amara Darboh was drafted 106th overall by the Seattle Seahawks. Darboh’s immediate opportunity isn’t clear. Despite Kevin Cole’s opportunity scores showing Seattle as the seventh most desirable landing spot for wide receivers, Charles Kleinheksel’s air yards available metric shows Seattle is only the 18th most desirable landing spot. Before we dive into Darboh’s outlook, let’s take a look at him as a prospect…....

Rushing Efficiency

Who Led the League in Rushing Efficiency in 2016?

A few weeks ago I looked at 2016’s most efficient pass catchers, both from a raw perspective, as well as from a depth-adjusted perspective. Now it’s time to dive into the ball carriers that led the league in rushing efficiency. First I’ll just start with raw production, and in a follow-up article, I’ll look at a special kind of adjustment to provide further insight into the…...

The 2017 RotoViz Writing Contest

It’s that time of year again. We’re back with the 2017 version of the RotoViz writing contest. This is now year three of the contest, and in each of 2015 and 2016, we’ve had some great submissions that led to further writing opportunites here at the ‘Viz, with those writers still writing for us today. If you are this year’s winner, you’ll get a lifetime RotoViz pass,…...

DraftKings NASCAR Texas

DraftKings NASCAR Texas Picks, Sim Scores, Model Projections

After a huge weekend at Martinsville for me, including multiple GPP wins, I’m looking forward to the interesting challenges Texas will present. This weekend’s DraftKings NASCAR Texas projections focus heavily on the Sim Score projections. That’s because there are major changes to the Texas track, so we’ll need to rely on similar tracks for help…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

DraftKings NASCAR Martinsville Picks and Model Projections

This weekend’s DraftKings NASCAR Martinsville projections once again included my Sim Score projections. For a primer on those see the primer article. Also, I’m trying things out this week and will be tiering my GPP picks and fades into risk tiers. I tend to have a riskier tolerance, and since I know that’s not for everyone, I’ll be sure to provide a risk level with…...

Depth-Adjusted Efficiency — 2016’s Best and Worst

Yesterday I showed which players were 2016’s most- and least- efficient pass catchers from the perspective of yards per target over expectation (YPTOE). YPTOE situationally adjusted a player’s efficiency based on down, distance, and yard line. Today, I will depth-adjust those numbers, because not all passing depths are created equal…....

receiving efficiency

Which Players Had the Best Receiving Efficiency in 2016?

Last offseason I introduced my metrics YPCOE and YPTOE, which stand for Yards Per Carry/Target Over Expectation respectively. I used them to identify season-long regression candidates for rushing and receiving efficiency, and it successfully identified Davante Adams and Dez Bryant as bounce-back candidates, while also correctly identifying Tyler Lockett and Sammy Watkins as players likely to regress…....

The 2017 QB Prospect Model

Last year I created a model to predict quarterback success at the NFL level for prospects. The model was useful in that it helped identify traits that transfer to the NFL level, but it was certainly overfit and didn’t bring in enough data. I’ve updated the model for 2017, and the improvements paint a much better story of each QB’s NFL prospects. The results will…...

NASCAR DFS Picks

NASCAR DFS Dover Picks, Ownership and Race Projections

After winning a Fantasy Racing World Championship qualifier last week, I’m ready to move on from those. However, if you are playing any FRWC qualifier events, I have a pick specifically geared toward that in this week’s NASCAR DFS Dover article…....

NASCAR DFS Lineup

NASCAR DFS Lineup Analysis: FRWC Qualifying Winning Lineup

I’m going to start a weekly NASCAR DFS lineup analysis series where I break down my best and worst lineup, along with the winning GPP lineup from the biggest GPP contest of the week. This week we look at my Fantasy Racing World Championship qualifier winning lineup along with my worst lineup from The $300k Beast GPP and BDholla89’s winning lineup from The Beast. If…...

NASCAR DFS Picks

NASCAR DFS Charlotte Picks, Ownership and Race Projections

After a week off for the All-Star break, we’re back with 600 miles for a monster NASCAR DFS Charlotte slate. DraftKings has a $300k GPP with $50k to first place. Hopefully one of you all will win the NASCAR DFS Charlotte monster GPP. As usual I’ll give my picks, points projections, and ownership projections for Sunday night’s race…....

Team Wins

Using Sabermetrics to Project 2017 NFL Team Wins

Earlier this offseason I looked at which teams got lucky in 2016 from a sabermetrics perspective regarding won-loss record. Using each team’s Pythagorean win percentage, we can use their 2017 schedules to give an estimate of wins for each team in 2017…....

NFL Draft Marlon Mack

3 Rookies We’ve Ranked Too Low

We just released our 2017 Post-Draft rookie rankings, where 23 RotoViz contributors ranked the rookies 1-50 (or even deeper in some cases). The composite rankings are great because the provide a bit of a wisdom of the crowd approach to rookie ranks…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

NASCAR DFS Kansas Picks, Ownership and Race Projections

After another GPP winning weekend for me, I’m excited for the NASCAR DFS Kansas slate — our first night race of the year. As usual I’ll give my picks, points projections, and ownership projections for Saturday night’s race…....

QB Success Model

The Post-Draft 2017 QB Success Model

Earlier this offseason I created the new and improved version of my QB success model. The QB success model uses several machine learning techniques to find the important variables in predicting QB success and in the implementation of the success classification itself. I’ve updated the results with the actual draft positions of the QBs from the 2017 NFL draft…....

NASCAR DFS picks

NASCAR DFS Talladega Picks, Ownership and Race Projections

Nick Giffen, AKA @RotoDoc is a Ph.D in mathematics, a two-time qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event, and placed 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th in the $125k DFS tournament for The Clash at Daytona, which is at a restrictor plate much like this weekend’s NASCAR DFS Talladega slate…....

2017 NFL Draft Reaction: A Look at Joe Williams on the 49ers

Joe Williams was taken by the San Francisco 49ers in the fourth round of this year’s NFL Draft at pick 121 overall. The 49ers traded up to get Williams, giving up their 143rd and 161st overall picks to the Indianapolis Colts, who would later pick physically and athletically similar running back Marlon Mack with that 143rd overall pick…....

Amara Darboh

2017 NFL Draft Reaction: Amara Darboh Goes to the Seattle Seahawks

Amara Darboh was drafted 106th overall by the Seattle Seahawks. Darboh’s immediate opportunity isn’t clear. Despite Kevin Cole’s opportunity scores showing Seattle as the seventh most desirable landing spot for wide receivers, Charles Kleinheksel’s air yards available metric shows Seattle is only the 18th most desirable landing spot. Before we dive into Darboh’s outlook, let’s take a look at him as a prospect…....

Rushing Efficiency

Who Led the League in Rushing Efficiency in 2016?

A few weeks ago I looked at 2016’s most efficient pass catchers, both from a raw perspective, as well as from a depth-adjusted perspective. Now it’s time to dive into the ball carriers that led the league in rushing efficiency. First I’ll just start with raw production, and in a follow-up article, I’ll look at a special kind of adjustment to provide further insight into the…...

The 2017 RotoViz Writing Contest

It’s that time of year again. We’re back with the 2017 version of the RotoViz writing contest. This is now year three of the contest, and in each of 2015 and 2016, we’ve had some great submissions that led to further writing opportunites here at the ‘Viz, with those writers still writing for us today. If you are this year’s winner, you’ll get a lifetime RotoViz pass,…...

DraftKings NASCAR Texas

DraftKings NASCAR Texas Picks, Sim Scores, Model Projections

After a huge weekend at Martinsville for me, including multiple GPP wins, I’m looking forward to the interesting challenges Texas will present. This weekend’s DraftKings NASCAR Texas projections focus heavily on the Sim Score projections. That’s because there are major changes to the Texas track, so we’ll need to rely on similar tracks for help…....

NASCAR DFS Picks

DraftKings NASCAR Martinsville Picks and Model Projections

This weekend’s DraftKings NASCAR Martinsville projections once again included my Sim Score projections. For a primer on those see the primer article. Also, I’m trying things out this week and will be tiering my GPP picks and fades into risk tiers. I tend to have a riskier tolerance, and since I know that’s not for everyone, I’ll be sure to provide a risk level with…...

Depth-Adjusted Efficiency — 2016’s Best and Worst

Yesterday I showed which players were 2016’s most- and least- efficient pass catchers from the perspective of yards per target over expectation (YPTOE). YPTOE situationally adjusted a player’s efficiency based on down, distance, and yard line. Today, I will depth-adjust those numbers, because not all passing depths are created equal…....

receiving efficiency

Which Players Had the Best Receiving Efficiency in 2016?

Last offseason I introduced my metrics YPCOE and YPTOE, which stand for Yards Per Carry/Target Over Expectation respectively. I used them to identify season-long regression candidates for rushing and receiving efficiency, and it successfully identified Davante Adams and Dez Bryant as bounce-back candidates, while also correctly identifying Tyler Lockett and Sammy Watkins as players likely to regress…....

The 2017 QB Prospect Model

Last year I created a model to predict quarterback success at the NFL level for prospects. The model was useful in that it helped identify traits that transfer to the NFL level, but it was certainly overfit and didn’t bring in enough data. I’ve updated the model for 2017, and the improvements paint a much better story of each QB’s NFL prospects. The results will…...

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