John Lapinski

Lead Writer at RotoViz with a focus on Dynasty and Best Ball leagues. Father, Giants fan, and Pork Roll aficionado.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

The TE Model Predicts the Stars and Busts of the 2019 Rookie Class

  Last year I billed the tight end model as a secret weapon for dynasty rookie drafts, and it didn’t disappoint. The 2018 model results successfully picked out Chris Herndon as the biggest sleeper, and predicted that Mark Andrews was the Baltimore TE to own, not first-round pick Hayden Hurst. We’re back again with the model results for the 2019 class, and it’s found three…...

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The Dawn of D.K. Metcalf? Fantasy Fallout From Doug Baldwin’s Release

  The Seattle Seahawks released veteran wide receiver Doug Baldwin on Thursday afternoon with a failed physical designation — what is the fantasy fallout in Seattle? Baldwin is expected to hang them up at just 30-years old, a sad and somewhat unexpected end to his eight-year tenure in Seattle. My understanding is that this is likely the end of the road for Doug Baldwin just…...

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5 High-Upside Flyers to Target in Rounds 3 and 4 of 2019 Rookie Drafts

  If you’ve been following Jacob Rickrode’s fantastic series on Rookie Hit Rates, you know that the hits fall off dramatically throughout the first round and the subsequent rounds are barren hellscapes. I offered a couple of methods for profiting from this in 5 Ways to Attack Your Rookie Drafts, but I’m also just like everyone else who plays fantasy football: I want to play…....

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2019 Rookie Drafts Round 2: A Trio of Star Receivers Slide

  With the NFL draft in the books, rookie draft season is upon us. Shawn Siegele examines Round 2 from a couple of experts drafts. He breaks down all of the picks, providing advanced stats and player commentary, as well as helping you access our rookie rankings, prospect tools, and draft research. Round 2 Evaluating the picks from two conferences in the same league is…...

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5 Methods for Attacking Your 2019 Rookie Draft

  Shawn Siegele provides five different methods for attacking 2019 rookie drafts, including a look at the areas to prioritize, the positions to target, and how to orchestrate trades. If you’ve read Jacob Rickrode’s fantastic series on Rookie Hit Rates, then you know just how much risk your rookie draft entails. The best way to manage that risk is through understanding player profiles. Michael Dubner…...

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Box Score Scout Player Comparisons: Second-Round 2019 NFL Draft

  After exploring the Box Score Scout’s player comparisons for first-round picks in the 2019 NFL Draft last week, we’ll do the same for fantasy football relevant players drafted in the second round. The media’s bold player comparisons for first-round NFL Draft picks are generally acceptable, since first-round picks are usually high quality prospects. However, as we get into Day 2 of the NFL Draft,…...

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The Importance of Peak Production: Top WR Prospects and the Adjusted Production Index

  Every year it seems there are new and better ways to sift through the sea of information on all the NFL rookies. And over the years RotoViz has been a huge part of this, providing the fantasy football world with all sorts of fun, meaningful metrics that help us all make better decisions in our player analysis. Recently, our very own Blair Andrews wrote…...

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4 RB Sleepers to Watch and 1 Early Pick Who’s Better Than You Think: 2019 Backfield Dominator Ratings

  Last offseason I introduced a metric I called Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). BDR measures the percentage of running back production that a college RB accounts for in his offense. In other words, it adjusts for offensive systems or for quarterbacks who, for whatever reason, don’t utilize RBs in the passing game.((And it also adjusts for teams that tend to use wide receivers in the running…...

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Dynasty Hit Rates: 2017 Draft Class

  The 2017 Draft class looks stacked. Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey have already finished No. 1 at their positions. Alvin Kamara already has as many 300-plus PPR seasons as Adrian Peterson has had in his entire career. George Kittle owns the TE receiving yardage record and JuJu Smith-Schuster has the most receptions for a WR under the age of 23 years old. If only every…...

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3 Rookie TEs I’m Targeting in Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  The 2019 NFL draft was a disappointment for three out of four offensive skill positions. Just two running backs in the first two rounds and multiple wide receivers slipped further than anyone expected. Three quarterbacks were drafted in the first round, but one of them was Daniel Jones, so does that really count? There was one position that didn’t let us down though. Tight…...

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Breaking Down Round 1 of Two Expert Rookie Drafts: A Smorgasbord of Advanced Stats, Rookie Rankings, and Prospect Research

  With the NFL draft in the books, rookie draft season is upon us. Today, Shawn Siegele examines Round 1 from a couple of experts drafts. He’ll break down all of the picks, providing advanced stats and player commentary, as well as helping you access our rookie rankings, prospect tools, and draft research. Round 1 Evaluating the picks from two conferences in the same league…...

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3 Rookie WRs I’m Fading in Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  Just like that, after month’s of anticipation and planning, the NFL Draft is done. Every year brings us a few surprises and this was no different. Now we turn our evaluation lens on rookie class and where they fit with their new NFL teams. With that framework mind let’s take a look at three rookies I’m fading. Marquise Brown The first wide receiver selected,…...

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2 Rookie QBs I’m Targeting in Superflex Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  Now that the 2019 NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror, it’s never too early to start analyzing how the incoming rookie class will fare from a fantasy football perspective. The quarterback position is one that’s been devalued in traditional single-quarterback fantasy scoring formats, but with Superflex and 2QB formats starting to become more and more popular, there’s an increased need for analysis at…...

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Dynasty ADP

Dynasty ADP   Please subscribe to Access this content!     What’s included in your subscription? Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager. Revolutionary Tools Including the NFL Stat Explorer,

Steering Clear – 3 Rookie Tight Ends to Avoid After the NFL Draft

  There is an almost everpresent desire for immediate success in the NFL, with many pinning unrealistic hopes and expectations on players that may well succeed in the league if allowed time to develop. The recent success, relatively speaking, of rookie skill players, has only served to heighten these expectations. While positions like quarterback and tight end used to be afforded the luxury of a…...

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2019 Draft: Who Maintained Continuity on the O-Line and Why We Care

  Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith((Smith was not counted as a Week 1 OL starter, though one of his four snaps in that game happened to be as a tight end on the Colts’ first offensive play. Indy’s defense turned an Andy Dalton pick into a Colts possession starting from the Bengals’ 7-yard line. Smith went on to play 75% of the Colts’ offensive snaps in 2019…...

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3 Rookie RBs I’m Fading In Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

With the 2019 NFL Draft come and gone, it’s time to re-evaluate and readjust our positions on some of our most-prized prospects by taking a look at three rookie running backs to fade in dynasty drafts. This class has neither the ceiling nor the depth of the 2018 class, which should push up RBs who found themselves drafted into situations where they might be able…...

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3 Rookie WRs I’m Targeting in Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  With the NFL Draft in the books, it’s time to turn our attention to dynasty league rookie drafts. Some wide receivers landed in perfect situations while others fell further than expected. With receivers like Hakeem Butler and Kelvin Harmon slipping to Day 3, rookie draft position is in flux. However, some names were called before they were expected and landed with teams that could provide immediate…...

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3 Rookie RBs I’m Targeting in Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  With the 2019 NFL Draft come and gone, it’s time to re-evaluate and readjust our positions on some of our most-prized prospects by taking a look at three rookie RBs to target in dynasty drafts. Make no mistake — this class has neither the ceiling nor the depth of the 2018 class, but at least they’ll be cheaper, and that’s just how we like…...

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Box Score Scout: 2019 NFL Draft First-Round Player Comparisons

  February to April is ruled by Draft Twitter. Countless hot takes, I’m right/you’re wrong, and no middle ground. As always, there were plenty of surprising draft picks, which certainly affects fantasy football value. While the media oftentimes uses the best case scenario for player comparisons, the RotoViz Box Score Scout has an NFL player comparison tool that provides rational, objective SimScore comparisons. Now that…...

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The TE Model Predicts the Stars and Busts of the 2019 Rookie Class

  Last year I billed the tight end model as a secret weapon for dynasty rookie drafts, and it didn’t disappoint. The 2018 model results successfully picked out Chris Herndon as the biggest sleeper, and predicted that Mark Andrews was the Baltimore TE to own, not first-round pick Hayden Hurst. We’re back again with the model results for the 2019 class, and it’s found three…...

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The Dawn of D.K. Metcalf? Fantasy Fallout From Doug Baldwin’s Release

  The Seattle Seahawks released veteran wide receiver Doug Baldwin on Thursday afternoon with a failed physical designation — what is the fantasy fallout in Seattle? Baldwin is expected to hang them up at just 30-years old, a sad and somewhat unexpected end to his eight-year tenure in Seattle. My understanding is that this is likely the end of the road for Doug Baldwin just…...

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5 High-Upside Flyers to Target in Rounds 3 and 4 of 2019 Rookie Drafts

  If you’ve been following Jacob Rickrode’s fantastic series on Rookie Hit Rates, you know that the hits fall off dramatically throughout the first round and the subsequent rounds are barren hellscapes. I offered a couple of methods for profiting from this in 5 Ways to Attack Your Rookie Drafts, but I’m also just like everyone else who plays fantasy football: I want to play…....

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2019 Rookie Drafts Round 2: A Trio of Star Receivers Slide

  With the NFL draft in the books, rookie draft season is upon us. Shawn Siegele examines Round 2 from a couple of experts drafts. He breaks down all of the picks, providing advanced stats and player commentary, as well as helping you access our rookie rankings, prospect tools, and draft research. Round 2 Evaluating the picks from two conferences in the same league is…...

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5 Methods for Attacking Your 2019 Rookie Draft

  Shawn Siegele provides five different methods for attacking 2019 rookie drafts, including a look at the areas to prioritize, the positions to target, and how to orchestrate trades. If you’ve read Jacob Rickrode’s fantastic series on Rookie Hit Rates, then you know just how much risk your rookie draft entails. The best way to manage that risk is through understanding player profiles. Michael Dubner…...

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Box Score Scout Player Comparisons: Second-Round 2019 NFL Draft

  After exploring the Box Score Scout’s player comparisons for first-round picks in the 2019 NFL Draft last week, we’ll do the same for fantasy football relevant players drafted in the second round. The media’s bold player comparisons for first-round NFL Draft picks are generally acceptable, since first-round picks are usually high quality prospects. However, as we get into Day 2 of the NFL Draft,…...

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The Importance of Peak Production: Top WR Prospects and the Adjusted Production Index

  Every year it seems there are new and better ways to sift through the sea of information on all the NFL rookies. And over the years RotoViz has been a huge part of this, providing the fantasy football world with all sorts of fun, meaningful metrics that help us all make better decisions in our player analysis. Recently, our very own Blair Andrews wrote…...

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4 RB Sleepers to Watch and 1 Early Pick Who’s Better Than You Think: 2019 Backfield Dominator Ratings

  Last offseason I introduced a metric I called Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). BDR measures the percentage of running back production that a college RB accounts for in his offense. In other words, it adjusts for offensive systems or for quarterbacks who, for whatever reason, don’t utilize RBs in the passing game.((And it also adjusts for teams that tend to use wide receivers in the running…...

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Dynasty Hit Rates: 2017 Draft Class

  The 2017 Draft class looks stacked. Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey have already finished No. 1 at their positions. Alvin Kamara already has as many 300-plus PPR seasons as Adrian Peterson has had in his entire career. George Kittle owns the TE receiving yardage record and JuJu Smith-Schuster has the most receptions for a WR under the age of 23 years old. If only every…...

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3 Rookie TEs I’m Targeting in Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  The 2019 NFL draft was a disappointment for three out of four offensive skill positions. Just two running backs in the first two rounds and multiple wide receivers slipped further than anyone expected. Three quarterbacks were drafted in the first round, but one of them was Daniel Jones, so does that really count? There was one position that didn’t let us down though. Tight…...

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Breaking Down Round 1 of Two Expert Rookie Drafts: A Smorgasbord of Advanced Stats, Rookie Rankings, and Prospect Research

  With the NFL draft in the books, rookie draft season is upon us. Today, Shawn Siegele examines Round 1 from a couple of experts drafts. He’ll break down all of the picks, providing advanced stats and player commentary, as well as helping you access our rookie rankings, prospect tools, and draft research. Round 1 Evaluating the picks from two conferences in the same league…...

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3 Rookie WRs I’m Fading in Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  Just like that, after month’s of anticipation and planning, the NFL Draft is done. Every year brings us a few surprises and this was no different. Now we turn our evaluation lens on rookie class and where they fit with their new NFL teams. With that framework mind let’s take a look at three rookies I’m fading. Marquise Brown The first wide receiver selected,…...

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2 Rookie QBs I’m Targeting in Superflex Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  Now that the 2019 NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror, it’s never too early to start analyzing how the incoming rookie class will fare from a fantasy football perspective. The quarterback position is one that’s been devalued in traditional single-quarterback fantasy scoring formats, but with Superflex and 2QB formats starting to become more and more popular, there’s an increased need for analysis at…...

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Dynasty ADP

Dynasty ADP   Please subscribe to Access this content!     What’s included in your subscription? Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager. Revolutionary Tools Including the NFL Stat Explorer,

Steering Clear – 3 Rookie Tight Ends to Avoid After the NFL Draft

  There is an almost everpresent desire for immediate success in the NFL, with many pinning unrealistic hopes and expectations on players that may well succeed in the league if allowed time to develop. The recent success, relatively speaking, of rookie skill players, has only served to heighten these expectations. While positions like quarterback and tight end used to be afforded the luxury of a…...

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2019 Draft: Who Maintained Continuity on the O-Line and Why We Care

  Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith((Smith was not counted as a Week 1 OL starter, though one of his four snaps in that game happened to be as a tight end on the Colts’ first offensive play. Indy’s defense turned an Andy Dalton pick into a Colts possession starting from the Bengals’ 7-yard line. Smith went on to play 75% of the Colts’ offensive snaps in 2019…...

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3 Rookie RBs I’m Fading In Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

With the 2019 NFL Draft come and gone, it’s time to re-evaluate and readjust our positions on some of our most-prized prospects by taking a look at three rookie running backs to fade in dynasty drafts. This class has neither the ceiling nor the depth of the 2018 class, which should push up RBs who found themselves drafted into situations where they might be able…...

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3 Rookie WRs I’m Targeting in Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  With the NFL Draft in the books, it’s time to turn our attention to dynasty league rookie drafts. Some wide receivers landed in perfect situations while others fell further than expected. With receivers like Hakeem Butler and Kelvin Harmon slipping to Day 3, rookie draft position is in flux. However, some names were called before they were expected and landed with teams that could provide immediate…...

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3 Rookie RBs I’m Targeting in Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  With the 2019 NFL Draft come and gone, it’s time to re-evaluate and readjust our positions on some of our most-prized prospects by taking a look at three rookie RBs to target in dynasty drafts. Make no mistake — this class has neither the ceiling nor the depth of the 2018 class, but at least they’ll be cheaper, and that’s just how we like…...

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Box Score Scout: 2019 NFL Draft First-Round Player Comparisons

  February to April is ruled by Draft Twitter. Countless hot takes, I’m right/you’re wrong, and no middle ground. As always, there were plenty of surprising draft picks, which certainly affects fantasy football value. While the media oftentimes uses the best case scenario for player comparisons, the RotoViz Box Score Scout has an NFL player comparison tool that provides rational, objective SimScore comparisons. Now that…...

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The TE Model Predicts the Stars and Busts of the 2019 Rookie Class

  Last year I billed the tight end model as a secret weapon for dynasty rookie drafts, and it didn’t disappoint. The 2018 model results successfully picked out Chris Herndon as the biggest sleeper, and predicted that Mark Andrews was the Baltimore TE to own, not first-round pick Hayden Hurst. We’re back again with the model results for the 2019 class, and it’s found three…...

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The Dawn of D.K. Metcalf? Fantasy Fallout From Doug Baldwin’s Release

  The Seattle Seahawks released veteran wide receiver Doug Baldwin on Thursday afternoon with a failed physical designation — what is the fantasy fallout in Seattle? Baldwin is expected to hang them up at just 30-years old, a sad and somewhat unexpected end to his eight-year tenure in Seattle. My understanding is that this is likely the end of the road for Doug Baldwin just…...

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5 High-Upside Flyers to Target in Rounds 3 and 4 of 2019 Rookie Drafts

  If you’ve been following Jacob Rickrode’s fantastic series on Rookie Hit Rates, you know that the hits fall off dramatically throughout the first round and the subsequent rounds are barren hellscapes. I offered a couple of methods for profiting from this in 5 Ways to Attack Your Rookie Drafts, but I’m also just like everyone else who plays fantasy football: I want to play…....

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2019 Rookie Drafts Round 2: A Trio of Star Receivers Slide

  With the NFL draft in the books, rookie draft season is upon us. Shawn Siegele examines Round 2 from a couple of experts drafts. He breaks down all of the picks, providing advanced stats and player commentary, as well as helping you access our rookie rankings, prospect tools, and draft research. Round 2 Evaluating the picks from two conferences in the same league is…...

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5 Methods for Attacking Your 2019 Rookie Draft

  Shawn Siegele provides five different methods for attacking 2019 rookie drafts, including a look at the areas to prioritize, the positions to target, and how to orchestrate trades. If you’ve read Jacob Rickrode’s fantastic series on Rookie Hit Rates, then you know just how much risk your rookie draft entails. The best way to manage that risk is through understanding player profiles. Michael Dubner…...

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Box Score Scout Player Comparisons: Second-Round 2019 NFL Draft

  After exploring the Box Score Scout’s player comparisons for first-round picks in the 2019 NFL Draft last week, we’ll do the same for fantasy football relevant players drafted in the second round. The media’s bold player comparisons for first-round NFL Draft picks are generally acceptable, since first-round picks are usually high quality prospects. However, as we get into Day 2 of the NFL Draft,…...

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The Importance of Peak Production: Top WR Prospects and the Adjusted Production Index

  Every year it seems there are new and better ways to sift through the sea of information on all the NFL rookies. And over the years RotoViz has been a huge part of this, providing the fantasy football world with all sorts of fun, meaningful metrics that help us all make better decisions in our player analysis. Recently, our very own Blair Andrews wrote…...

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4 RB Sleepers to Watch and 1 Early Pick Who’s Better Than You Think: 2019 Backfield Dominator Ratings

  Last offseason I introduced a metric I called Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). BDR measures the percentage of running back production that a college RB accounts for in his offense. In other words, it adjusts for offensive systems or for quarterbacks who, for whatever reason, don’t utilize RBs in the passing game.((And it also adjusts for teams that tend to use wide receivers in the running…...

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Dynasty Hit Rates: 2017 Draft Class

  The 2017 Draft class looks stacked. Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey have already finished No. 1 at their positions. Alvin Kamara already has as many 300-plus PPR seasons as Adrian Peterson has had in his entire career. George Kittle owns the TE receiving yardage record and JuJu Smith-Schuster has the most receptions for a WR under the age of 23 years old. If only every…...

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3 Rookie TEs I’m Targeting in Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  The 2019 NFL draft was a disappointment for three out of four offensive skill positions. Just two running backs in the first two rounds and multiple wide receivers slipped further than anyone expected. Three quarterbacks were drafted in the first round, but one of them was Daniel Jones, so does that really count? There was one position that didn’t let us down though. Tight…...

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Breaking Down Round 1 of Two Expert Rookie Drafts: A Smorgasbord of Advanced Stats, Rookie Rankings, and Prospect Research

  With the NFL draft in the books, rookie draft season is upon us. Today, Shawn Siegele examines Round 1 from a couple of experts drafts. He’ll break down all of the picks, providing advanced stats and player commentary, as well as helping you access our rookie rankings, prospect tools, and draft research. Round 1 Evaluating the picks from two conferences in the same league…...

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3 Rookie WRs I’m Fading in Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  Just like that, after month’s of anticipation and planning, the NFL Draft is done. Every year brings us a few surprises and this was no different. Now we turn our evaluation lens on rookie class and where they fit with their new NFL teams. With that framework mind let’s take a look at three rookies I’m fading. Marquise Brown The first wide receiver selected,…...

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2 Rookie QBs I’m Targeting in Superflex Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  Now that the 2019 NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror, it’s never too early to start analyzing how the incoming rookie class will fare from a fantasy football perspective. The quarterback position is one that’s been devalued in traditional single-quarterback fantasy scoring formats, but with Superflex and 2QB formats starting to become more and more popular, there’s an increased need for analysis at…...

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Dynasty ADP

Dynasty ADP   Please subscribe to Access this content!     What’s included in your subscription? Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager. Revolutionary Tools Including the NFL Stat Explorer,

Steering Clear – 3 Rookie Tight Ends to Avoid After the NFL Draft

  There is an almost everpresent desire for immediate success in the NFL, with many pinning unrealistic hopes and expectations on players that may well succeed in the league if allowed time to develop. The recent success, relatively speaking, of rookie skill players, has only served to heighten these expectations. While positions like quarterback and tight end used to be afforded the luxury of a…...

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2019 Draft: Who Maintained Continuity on the O-Line and Why We Care

  Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith((Smith was not counted as a Week 1 OL starter, though one of his four snaps in that game happened to be as a tight end on the Colts’ first offensive play. Indy’s defense turned an Andy Dalton pick into a Colts possession starting from the Bengals’ 7-yard line. Smith went on to play 75% of the Colts’ offensive snaps in 2019…...

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3 Rookie RBs I’m Fading In Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

With the 2019 NFL Draft come and gone, it’s time to re-evaluate and readjust our positions on some of our most-prized prospects by taking a look at three rookie running backs to fade in dynasty drafts. This class has neither the ceiling nor the depth of the 2018 class, which should push up RBs who found themselves drafted into situations where they might be able…...

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3 Rookie WRs I’m Targeting in Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  With the NFL Draft in the books, it’s time to turn our attention to dynasty league rookie drafts. Some wide receivers landed in perfect situations while others fell further than expected. With receivers like Hakeem Butler and Kelvin Harmon slipping to Day 3, rookie draft position is in flux. However, some names were called before they were expected and landed with teams that could provide immediate…...

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3 Rookie RBs I’m Targeting in Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  With the 2019 NFL Draft come and gone, it’s time to re-evaluate and readjust our positions on some of our most-prized prospects by taking a look at three rookie RBs to target in dynasty drafts. Make no mistake — this class has neither the ceiling nor the depth of the 2018 class, but at least they’ll be cheaper, and that’s just how we like…...

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Box Score Scout: 2019 NFL Draft First-Round Player Comparisons

  February to April is ruled by Draft Twitter. Countless hot takes, I’m right/you’re wrong, and no middle ground. As always, there were plenty of surprising draft picks, which certainly affects fantasy football value. While the media oftentimes uses the best case scenario for player comparisons, the RotoViz Box Score Scout has an NFL player comparison tool that provides rational, objective SimScore comparisons. Now that…...

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