PGA DFS: Is Sam Burns Ready to Take the Next Step?

There’s no rest for the weary as the tour heads down to the Dominican Republic for this week’s event. The course is Corales Puntacana Resort and Golf Club, which is a par 72 that plays just over 7,660 yards. This is one of the weaker fields of the year, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t specific ways to attack the slate. What Kind of Week Is It?…...

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PGA DFS: Is Sam Burns Ready to Take the Next Step?

There’s no rest for the weary as the tour heads down to the Dominican Republic for this week’s event. The course is Corales Puntacana Resort and Golf Club, which is a par 72 that plays just over 7,660 yards. This is one of the weaker fields of the year, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t specific ways to attack the slate. What Kind of Week Is It?…...

full access to all pga content...

For the 2019 season, full access to all PGA content will be included with a RotoViz subscription. 

PGA - Tools

PGA DFS: Patrick Cantlay is Worth the Price of Admission at Pebble Beach

The Tour turns its attention towards Pebble Beach for the week. As I mentioned in yesterday’s article, we’re looking at a three-course rotation again this week. That means plenty of showdown strategy and a Saturday cut is on tap for this weekend.  Finish Position Category Average DK Score Top 25 84.2 26 – 50 67.3 51 – 75 55.5 Missed Cut 37.5 Buy or Sell I’m going to sell Dustin Johnson ($11,600) for a couple of reasons. The main one is because fading the most expensive golfer on a slate is almost always in play. DJ has plenty of win equity, but is it enough to pay off $11,600? He likely will come in with plenty of ownership. He actually hasn’t overpowered shorter courses in the way that you might think. Johnson’s a class-golfer1 but if I’m paying for a highly owned, expensive golfer, I want no question marks. He’s…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies – Pebble Beach Pro-Am

We’re back to another multi-course rotation this week. It’s the famous Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and you are likely familiar with the courses. If you aren’t familiar, check out last year’s preview and trends article. Lineup Review Before we jump into this week’s tourney, I wanted to take a quick minute to breakdown my single-entry lineup from last week.1  As you can see, one of the cash locks from this week missed the cut. Viktor Hovland ended up missing the cut by a stroke. He started off with a 1-under 70 in Round 1 and then was looking like a good bet to make the cut but found trouble on the front nine. He then had a 9-foot birdie putt on 17 that would’ve put him on the number to make the cut and he left it 1 inch from the hole. That left him with 25.5 DK points on the…...

PGA DFS: Backtesting the Power Ranking Model

It’s been a little over six months since the first iteration of the Power Ranking model was released. Throughout the course of the season last year, there were some tweaks made here and there but I’ve overhauled it in the “offseason.”1 I wanted to take a look at how the model has done after the changes, but also through a different lens. Different tournaments can have vastly different types of golfers in the field so the first step was addressing that problem.  Power Ranking Score A major tournament will feature multiple golfers that have a raw Power Ranking of -2 or better, but then there will be tournaments where the best golfer is around -1.5 or -1.3. After some thought, scaling the scores made a lot more sense than just using the raw scores. The Power Ranking Score (PRK) solves this problem because it applies a score from 0 to…...

PGA DFS: Webb Simpson is Ready to Party at the WMPO

We are back at the biggest party in golf for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The golfers will be tasked with taming TPC Scottsdale. TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 course that plays about 7,260 yards. The course features 7,000-plus square foot greens which run about 12 feet on the Stimpmeter. That can lead to low scores as the winner has averaged 17.45 strokes under par here since 1990. If you want to check out the Expected Birdies preview, head to yesterday’s article. Scoring Breakdown Finish Position Category Average DK Scoring Top 25 84.3 25th – 50th 67 51st – 75th 57.3 Missed Cut 24.4 Buy or Sell Jon Rahm ($11,400)  is coming off of a near-win at the Farmers Insurance Open and he gets the “home-field” narrative. Rahm went to ASU is basically the “Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard” or “Antonio Gates used to play basketball” of this week…....

PGA DFS: Waste Management Phoenix Open – Expected Birdies

We are back at the biggest party in golf for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The golfers will be tasked with taming TPC Scottsdale. TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 course that plays about 7,260 yards. The course features 7,000-plus square foot greens which run about 12 feet on the Stimpmeter. That can lead to low scores as the winner has averaged 17.45 strokes under par here since 1990. The course isn’t without its obstacles, though. The field will have to navigate their way around 68 bunkers and three water hazards. If you want to check out a more in-depth look at the course, you can check out last year’s course preview. Standouts Viktor Hovland ($8,400) has the second-best BoB Score and the second-best PRK score. He’s the only golfer in the field with a 95-plus in both of those metrics. Harry Higgs ($6,900) is above an 80 in each of…...

PGA DFS: Rory McIlroy has Everyone in the Rearview at the Farmers Insurance Open

We’re back again this week and heading to Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open. The scoring won’t be quite as easy this week as we have a number of changes compared to La Quinta and The American Express. You can check out the Expected Birdies for this week which also has a link to last year’s course preview if you want a deeper dive into specific stats for the Farmers Insurance Open.  Scoring Breakdown Finish Position Category Average DK Scoring Top 25 78 25th – 50th 62 51st – 75th 47.5 Missed Cut 22.6 Buy or Sell Rory McIlroy ($11,600) is confirmed good at golf. McIlroy’s raw score of -2.28 puts him in elite company and he has a perfect 100 PRK score relative to the field. Golfers with a score of 80 or higher have accounted for 42% of the wins on tour despite only making up 10%…...

PGA DFS: Farmers Insurance Open – Expected Birdies

We spent a weekend at the three-course rotation of the American Express out in La Quinta, Calfironia. Now we’re playing just two tracks here. The Farmers Insurance Open is played at Torrey Pines Golf Course. There are two courses the golfers will be tasked with playing. Each golfer will get one crack at the North course before the weekend, which is significantly shorter — and easier. Each golfer that makes the cut will also get three cracks at the South course. If you want to see an in-depth breakdown of the courses, check out last year’s preview article.  Expected Birdies Standouts If you look at the $9,000-plus range, the golfers are relatively close in Expected Birdies. Sungjae Im ($9,100) has a slight lead while Jon Rahm ($11,300), Rory McIlroy ($11,600), and Tiger Woods ($10,800) are essentially tied right behind him.  Collin Morikawa ($8,900) and Matthew Wolff ($8,200) are two of…...

Tony Finau and the Long-Awaited Trophy: The American Express PGA DFS Breakdown

We have a three-course rotation for the first time this PGA DFS season. The American Express is played on La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the Stadium Course. Each of the golfers in the field will get a crack at each course before playing the Stadium Course for a second time in the final round. That means 54 holes from each guy that you roster even if they go on to miss the cut. Yesterday, I unveiled Expected Birdies which is a metric I’ve been working on for the past few months. Today, we’ll be looking at a few plays  Buy Or Sell Sungjae Im ($11,000) has the best combination of Expected Birdies and Power Ranking in the $10,000-plus range. He’s definitely a buy for me this week but you’ll have to find some low-owned options to balance out the total ownership of your roster. Im finds himself…...

The American Express – PGA DFS Proximity Predictions

We have a three-course rotation for the first time this PGA DFS season. The American Express is played on La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the Stadium Course.1 Each of the golfers in the field will get a crack at each course before playing the Stadium Course for a second time in the final round. That means 54 holes from each guy that you roster even if they go on to miss the cut.  Three’s A Crowd … La Quinta Country Club was the easiest course on the PGA Tour schedule last season. It’s a par 72 that plays about 7,060 yards. It’s the only course over the past two seasons that has allowed an average of 5-plus birdies or better per round for each golfer.  The Nicklaus Tournament Course isn’t far behind. It has been the second easiest course on tour each of the last two seasons…....

When $12,000 Isn’t Enough … The Justin Thomas Story: Sony Open PGA DFS Breakdown

Waialae CC is playing host to the Sony Open once again this year. It is a Par 70 that plays about 7,000 yards. Last year, I broke down the course from a statistical perspective and yesterday I unveiled proximity predictions for Waialae as our new preview format.  Buy Or Sell The big question is whether or not Justin Thomas ($12,000) can pay off his salary this week. It feels like people are forgetting just how good Thomas has been over the last few years because of a “lackluster” 2019. Since the start of 2017, he’s made 72 starts. Over that span, he’s made 63 cuts and has 10 worldwide wins. You have questions about his recent form? Well, he won last week and is in the top five of every major strokes gained category excluding putting over the last 50 rounds. He’s a buy if you can figure out the…...

PGA DFS: Patrick Cantlay is Worth the Price of Admission at Pebble Beach

The Tour turns its attention towards Pebble Beach for the week. As I mentioned in yesterday’s article, we’re looking at a three-course rotation again this week. That means plenty of showdown strategy and a Saturday cut is on tap for this weekend.  Finish Position Category Average DK Score Top 25…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies – Pebble Beach Pro-Am

We’re back to another multi-course rotation this week. It’s the famous Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and you are likely familiar with the courses. If you aren’t familiar, check out last year’s preview and trends article. Lineup Review Before we jump into this week’s tourney, I wanted to take a quick minute…...

PGA DFS: Backtesting the Power Ranking Model

It’s been a little over six months since the first iteration of the Power Ranking model was released. Throughout the course of the season last year, there were some tweaks made here and there but I’ve overhauled it in the “offseason.”1 I wanted to take a look at how the…...

PGA DFS: Webb Simpson is Ready to Party at the WMPO

We are back at the biggest party in golf for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The golfers will be tasked with taming TPC Scottsdale. TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 course that plays about 7,260 yards. The course features 7,000-plus square foot greens which run about 12 feet on the…...

PGA DFS: Waste Management Phoenix Open – Expected Birdies

We are back at the biggest party in golf for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The golfers will be tasked with taming TPC Scottsdale. TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 course that plays about 7,260 yards. The course features 7,000-plus square foot greens which run about 12 feet on the…...

PGA DFS: Farmers Insurance Open – Expected Birdies

We spent a weekend at the three-course rotation of the American Express out in La Quinta, Calfironia. Now we’re playing just two tracks here. The Farmers Insurance Open is played at Torrey Pines Golf Course. There are two courses the golfers will be tasked with playing. Each golfer will get…...

The American Express – PGA DFS Proximity Predictions

We have a three-course rotation for the first time this PGA DFS season. The American Express is played on La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the Stadium Course.1 Each of the golfers in the field will get a crack at each course before playing the Stadium Course for…...

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