PGA DFS: WGC FedEx St. Jude’s Invitational Slate Breakdown

The Tour turns its attention to TPC Southwind this week for the WGC FedEx St Jude’s Invitational. Seeing that WGC in the name of the event should send your mind to a couple of places right away. The first place is that we’ll be seeing many of the best golfers in the world. The second is that we’re looking at a much shorter field with no cut. These types of events are exciting because of…...

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PGA Tools

PGA DFS: WGC FedEx St. Jude’s Invitational Slate Breakdown

The Tour turns its attention to TPC Southwind this week for the WGC FedEx St Jude’s Invitational. Seeing that WGC in the name of the event should send your mind to a couple of places right away. The first place is that we’ll be seeing many of the best golfers in the world. The second is that we’re looking at a much shorter field with no cut. These types of events are exciting because of the swings that can happen in your “Currently Winning” tab on your DK account. Most weeks, we have an idea1 of how we’ll end up…....

full access to all pga content...

For the 2019 season, full access to all PGA content will be included with a RotoViz subscription. 

PGA - Tools

PGA DFS Game Theory: How To Pick Golfers in the $9,500 and Up Range

I’ve spent most of the past few years diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts and it’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it.  The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a golfer’s potential ownership will be. Each week, I publish the PRK Model results alongside my ownership projections. With that in mind, I’ve decided to do a series on performance versus ownership at different salary ranges. We’ll start at the top with golfers that are priced at $9,500 and up. What…...

PGA DFS: Justin Thomas is Locked and Loaded at the RBC Heritage

After a solid week down in Texas, the Tour turns its attention to Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage. If you want an in-depth look at this week’s track, head over to last year’s preview article. Buy or Sell Webb Simpson ($9,000) is coming back off of a disappointing performance down in Texas, missing the cut as one of the most heavily owned golfers in the field. Despite that disappointment, people will likely be going right back to the well with him. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t one of the top three owned golfers on the slate this week. How do $9,000 golfers that are highly owned perform, you ask? Historically, you don’t gain much by eating chalk in the $8,500-$9,400 range. Golfers that are at least 18% owned have hit 89 or more DK Points 22% of the time. That’s only one percentage point higher than…...

PGA DFS: Charles Schwab Challenge Slate Breakdown

It has been quite some time since we were able to talk golf, but the return is right around the corner. The tour heads out to Colonial Country Club down in Fort Worth, Texas, for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This course has been in the rotation since the 1940s. It’s a par 70 that plays just a shade over 7,200 yards. Colonial features relatively small greens (4,500 square feet) that are bentgrass. The field will have to navigate their way around 85 bunkers and four water hazards. To see an in-depth course breakdown, head over to last year’s preview article. Checking the Chalk As of right now, it looks like we will have five golfers soaking up most of the ownership. At the top of the salary scales, we have Rory McIlroy ($11,800) and Jon Rahm ($11,000) projected for 20% or higher ownership. Rory has the top salary and the…...

PGA DFS: The PLAYERS Championship Breakdown

We’re heading back to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. It’s a course that many of us are familiar with. If you want a look at how the field shakes out in Expected Birdies this week, check out yesterday’s article. Buy or Sell We’re sitting here with another event where Rory McIlroy ($11,700) is just simply lapping the field in PRK Score. Even in the strongest field of the year, by just about any metric, McIlroy is far ahead of his closest competitor. As far as Raw PRK Score goes, Rory is at -2.40.1 The closest guy in the field to McIlroy is Justin Thomas ($10,800) and he’s at -1.83. That implies at least a 0.5 stroke advantage per round for McIlroy over everyone else in the field. On courses longer than 7,200 yards, McIlroy sees a slight bump in all of the major statistics we’re focusing on.  Rory has…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies for The PLAYERS Championship

We’re heading back to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. It’s a course  If you want a more in-depth look at the statistical breakdown of the course, check out last year’s course preview. Here’s a look at the field shakes out in Expected Birdies this week. Standouts Pricing is always interesting in these strong fields. Collin Morikawa ($7,900) is below $8,000 despite his impressive made cut streak. He is coming off of a top-10 finish as well. Oh, and he’s also tied for sixth in Expected Birdies with a 92. Matt Kuchar ($7,800) also comes in sporting an excellent course fit via the Expected Birdies model. Many of the golfers in his price range are sitting in the 70s while Kuchar gets an 86 from the model this week. The big exception to that is Scottie Scheffler ($7,500). Scheffler was a couple of mistakes away from a top-five finish last week and has shown…...

PGA DFS: Rory McIlroy is Still Too Cheap for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Tour is turning its attention, once again, to Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If you want a more in-depth look at how each golfer in the field fits the course, check out yesterday’s Expected Birdies piece.  Buy or Sell According to the simulator, Rory McIlroy ($11,800) should be in consideration despite his hefty price tag. His median projected finish position is 11th.1 His raw Power Ranking score is so far ahead of the rest of the field that there isn’t another golfer with a score above 90. In 11 of his last 13 events, McIlroy has finished inside of the top nine.  Francesco Molinari ($7,200) is the easiest sell of the season. He’s been atrocious lately, to be quite honest. Three of his last four events have been missed cuts. Molinari’s only made cut in that stretch came in the no-cut event down in…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Tour is turning its attention, once again, to Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If you want a more in-depth look at the statistical breakdown of the course, check out last year’s course preview. Here’s a look at the field shakes out in Expected Birdies. Standouts Rory McIlroy ($11,800) continues to destroy everything in his path. He’s 0.8 strokes per round clear of the field according to the Raw Power Ranking Score. McIlroy has the second-best Expected Birdies score, too, as the cherry on the top. Collin Morikawa ($8,400) and Scottie Scheffler ($7,700) both seem a bit underpriced relative to their ceiling. Morikawa comes in with his made-cut streak intact. He’s made 21 starts on tour since the start of 2018 with a win, a runner-up and four other finishes inside of the top 10. Scheffler opened the year with some strong finishes before missing a couple of cuts…...

PGA DFS: Billy Horschel is the Belle of the Ball at the Honda Classic

The Tour heads to Florida this week for The Honda Classic. It’s played at PGA National’s Champion course, which is a 7,100-yard par 70. This track is one of the more difficult tests on the entire tour. Getting golfers to make the cut is always important, but a missed cut is especially damaging here. Of the 103 courses in my database, PGA National has the 12th lowest average DK points for golfers who miss the cut of non-major venues.  Finish Category Average DK Points Top 25 71.3 25 – 50 56.2 51 – 75 48.7 MC 20.7 Buy or Sell Billy Horschel ($9,200) is a name that’s flying around quite a bit this week. We’ve seen him get hot and play some of the best golf on Tour in spurts. He’s made 27 of 31 cuts dating back to the start of 2019, but more recently he’s put together a…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies for The Honda Classic

As always, we’re going to kick off our week with a quick look at Expected Birdies. The Honda Classic is being held at the Champion course at PGA National, as usual. If you’re interested in a statistical breakdown of how the course has played historically, check out last year’s preview article. Outliers Maverick McNealy ($7,500) continues to rate highly each and every week. He comes in this week with an 89 and only trails golfers at $9,500-plus in the Expected Birdies score for the field this week. McNealy’s now on a string of 10 straight made cuts and comes in with great form. Harry Higgs ($7,300) is another name that keeps popping up in this article each week. Last we saw him, he was eking out a top-20 finish at Pebble Beach. It appears that he’s found his stride a bit as he’s made seven of eight cuts. Image Credit: Tim…...

PGA DFS: WGC Mexico Championship Slate Breakdown

The Tour is heading South of the border for the World Golf Championship – Mexico Championship. This is a no-cut event with a very small field. At the moment, we have just over 70 committed golfers. Ownership in weeks like this is relatively flat, and it’s very difficult to get a guy at low ownership that’s worth playing. With that being said, we need to be even sharper with our decision making if we’re going to have an edge this week.1 Buy or Sell Dustin Johnson ($11,000) is one of the more talked about golfers heading into the week. He also comes into the week with the second-highest price. DJ will surely need a top-five finish in order to pay off his salary and ownership combination. The simulator only gives him the ninth-best chance at a top-five finish in the entire field. He’s coming off of a top 10 in…...

PGA DFS Game Theory: How To Pick Golfers in the $9,500 and Up Range

I’ve spent most of the past few years diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with…...

PGA DFS: Justin Thomas is Locked and Loaded at the RBC Heritage

After a solid week down in Texas, the Tour turns its attention to Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage. If you want an in-depth look at this week’s track, head over to last year’s preview article. Buy or Sell Webb Simpson ($9,000) is coming back off of a…...

PGA DFS: Charles Schwab Challenge Slate Breakdown

It has been quite some time since we were able to talk golf, but the return is right around the corner. The tour heads out to Colonial Country Club down in Fort Worth, Texas, for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This course has been in the rotation since the 1940s. It’s…...

PGA DFS: The PLAYERS Championship Breakdown

We’re heading back to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. It’s a course that many of us are familiar with. If you want a look at how the field shakes out in Expected Birdies this week, check out yesterday’s article. Buy or Sell We’re sitting here with another event where…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies for The PLAYERS Championship

We’re heading back to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. It’s a course  If you want a more in-depth look at the statistical breakdown of the course, check out last year’s course preview. Here’s a look at the field shakes out in Expected Birdies this week. Standouts Pricing is always…...

PGA DFS: Rory McIlroy is Still Too Cheap for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Tour is turning its attention, once again, to Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If you want a more in-depth look at how each golfer in the field fits the course, check out yesterday’s Expected Birdies piece.  Buy or Sell According to the simulator, Rory…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Tour is turning its attention, once again, to Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If you want a more in-depth look at the statistical breakdown of the course, check out last year’s course preview. Here’s a look at the field shakes out in Expected Birdies. Standouts…...

PGA DFS: Billy Horschel is the Belle of the Ball at the Honda Classic

The Tour heads to Florida this week for The Honda Classic. It’s played at PGA National’s Champion course, which is a 7,100-yard par 70. This track is one of the more difficult tests on the entire tour. Getting golfers to make the cut is always important, but a missed cut…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies for The Honda Classic

As always, we’re going to kick off our week with a quick look at Expected Birdies. The Honda Classic is being held at the Champion course at PGA National, as usual. If you’re interested in a statistical breakdown of how the course has played historically, check out last year’s preview…...

PGA DFS: WGC Mexico Championship Slate Breakdown

The Tour is heading South of the border for the World Golf Championship – Mexico Championship. This is a no-cut event with a very small field. At the moment, we have just over 70 committed golfers. Ownership in weeks like this is relatively flat, and it’s very difficult to get…...

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