PGA DFS: WGC FedEx St. Jude’s Invitational Slate Breakdown

The Tour turns its attention to TPC Southwind this week for the WGC FedEx St Jude’s Invitational. Seeing that WGC in the name of the event should send your mind to a couple of places right away. The first place is that we’ll be seeing many of the best golfers in the world. The second is that we’re looking at a much shorter field with no cut. These types of events are exciting because of…...

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PGA DFS: WGC FedEx St. Jude’s Invitational Slate Breakdown

The Tour turns its attention to TPC Southwind this week for the WGC FedEx St Jude’s Invitational. Seeing that WGC in the name of the event should send your mind to a couple of places right away. The first place is that we’ll be seeing many of the best golfers in the world. The second is that we’re looking at a much shorter field with no cut. These types of events are exciting because of the swings that can happen in your “Currently Winning” tab on your DK account. Most weeks, we have an idea1 of how we’ll end up…....

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PGA DFS: Rory McIlroy is on Another Level Heading into the Genesis Invitational

We’re heading back to Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational. This year’s field is one of the strongest non-major fields in recent memory with nine of the Top 10 OWGR making the trip. For a look at the Expected Birdies for this track, head over to yesterday’s article.  Buy or Sell Rory McIlroy ($11,600) is, without exaggeration, breaking the PRK Score this week. Last week, for example, we had eight different golfers at 90-plus in the model. Because of the gap between Rory and the rest of the field, there are only two golfers joining Rory with that distinction.1 He’s made 11 straight cuts. Over that span, he’s notched two wins and seven other top 10s. His worst finish was a T26 at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. The most likely scenario, thanks to his price, is that he comes in even a bit under-owned relative to his chance…...

PGA DFS: Genesis Invitational – Expected Birdies

We’re heading to Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational this week. There are few fields in golf outside of the majors that boast a field like this. That means there is plenty of money to go around on DraftKings. If you’re interested in a deeper, statistical dive you can head over to last year’s preview article.  Expected Birdies Explained Expected Birdies measure course fit in a unique way. Most analysis of golf courses looks at historical approach data and tries to fit a narrative around that. We’re well aware that a golfer’s approach distance on a given hole is tied to driving distance. To just blindly say that every golfer in the field will fit into that distribution is foolish. I look at a golfer’s driving distance, simulate thousands of drives and apply those results to the week’s scorecard to measure how well a golfer fits the course. Here are…...

PGA DFS: Patrick Cantlay is Worth the Price of Admission at Pebble Beach

The Tour turns its attention towards Pebble Beach for the week. As I mentioned in yesterday’s article, we’re looking at a three-course rotation again this week. That means plenty of showdown strategy and a Saturday cut is on tap for this weekend.  Finish Position Category Average DK Score Top 25 84.2 26 – 50 67.3 51 – 75 55.5 Missed Cut 37.5 Buy or Sell I’m going to sell Dustin Johnson ($11,600) for a couple of reasons. The main one is because fading the most expensive golfer on a slate is almost always in play. DJ has plenty of win equity, but is it enough to pay off $11,600? He likely will come in with plenty of ownership. He actually hasn’t overpowered shorter courses in the way that you might think. Johnson’s a class-golfer1 but if I’m paying for a highly owned, expensive golfer, I want no question marks. He’s…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies – Pebble Beach Pro-Am

We’re back to another multi-course rotation this week. It’s the famous Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and you are likely familiar with the courses. If you aren’t familiar, check out last year’s preview and trends article. Lineup Review Before we jump into this week’s tourney, I wanted to take a quick minute to breakdown my single-entry lineup from last week.1  As you can see, one of the cash locks from this week missed the cut. Viktor Hovland ended up missing the cut by a stroke. He started off with a 1-under 70 in Round 1 and then was looking like a good bet to make the cut but found trouble on the front nine. He then had a 9-foot birdie putt on 17 that would’ve put him on the number to make the cut and he left it 1 inch from the hole. That left him with 25.5 DK points on the…...

PGA DFS: Backtesting the Power Ranking Model

It’s been a little over six months since the first iteration of the Power Ranking model was released. Throughout the course of the season last year, there were some tweaks made here and there but I’ve overhauled it in the “offseason.”1 I wanted to take a look at how the model has done after the changes, but also through a different lens. Different tournaments can have vastly different types of golfers in the field so the first step was addressing that problem.  Power Ranking Score A major tournament will feature multiple golfers that have a raw Power Ranking of -2 or better, but then there will be tournaments where the best golfer is around -1.5 or -1.3. After some thought, scaling the scores made a lot more sense than just using the raw scores. The Power Ranking Score (PRK) solves this problem because it applies a score from 0 to…...

PGA DFS: Webb Simpson is Ready to Party at the WMPO

We are back at the biggest party in golf for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The golfers will be tasked with taming TPC Scottsdale. TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 course that plays about 7,260 yards. The course features 7,000-plus square foot greens which run about 12 feet on the Stimpmeter. That can lead to low scores as the winner has averaged 17.45 strokes under par here since 1990. If you want to check out the Expected Birdies preview, head to yesterday’s article. Scoring Breakdown Finish Position Category Average DK Scoring Top 25 84.3 25th – 50th 67 51st – 75th 57.3 Missed Cut 24.4 Buy or Sell Jon Rahm ($11,400)  is coming off of a near-win at the Farmers Insurance Open and he gets the “home-field” narrative. Rahm went to ASU is basically the “Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard” or “Antonio Gates used to play basketball” of this week…....

PGA DFS: Waste Management Phoenix Open – Expected Birdies

We are back at the biggest party in golf for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The golfers will be tasked with taming TPC Scottsdale. TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 course that plays about 7,260 yards. The course features 7,000-plus square foot greens which run about 12 feet on the Stimpmeter. That can lead to low scores as the winner has averaged 17.45 strokes under par here since 1990. The course isn’t without its obstacles, though. The field will have to navigate their way around 68 bunkers and three water hazards. If you want to check out a more in-depth look at the course, you can check out last year’s course preview. Standouts Viktor Hovland ($8,400) has the second-best BoB Score and the second-best PRK score. He’s the only golfer in the field with a 95-plus in both of those metrics. Harry Higgs ($6,900) is above an 80 in each of…...

PGA DFS: Rory McIlroy has Everyone in the Rearview at the Farmers Insurance Open

We’re back again this week and heading to Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open. The scoring won’t be quite as easy this week as we have a number of changes compared to La Quinta and The American Express. You can check out the Expected Birdies for this week which also has a link to last year’s course preview if you want a deeper dive into specific stats for the Farmers Insurance Open.  Scoring Breakdown Finish Position Category Average DK Scoring Top 25 78 25th – 50th 62 51st – 75th 47.5 Missed Cut 22.6 Buy or Sell Rory McIlroy ($11,600) is confirmed good at golf. McIlroy’s raw score of -2.28 puts him in elite company and he has a perfect 100 PRK score relative to the field. Golfers with a score of 80 or higher have accounted for 42% of the wins on tour despite only making up 10%…...

PGA DFS: Farmers Insurance Open – Expected Birdies

We spent a weekend at the three-course rotation of the American Express out in La Quinta, Calfironia. Now we’re playing just two tracks here. The Farmers Insurance Open is played at Torrey Pines Golf Course. There are two courses the golfers will be tasked with playing. Each golfer will get one crack at the North course before the weekend, which is significantly shorter — and easier. Each golfer that makes the cut will also get three cracks at the South course. If you want to see an in-depth breakdown of the courses, check out last year’s preview article.  Expected Birdies Standouts If you look at the $9,000-plus range, the golfers are relatively close in Expected Birdies. Sungjae Im ($9,100) has a slight lead while Jon Rahm ($11,300), Rory McIlroy ($11,600), and Tiger Woods ($10,800) are essentially tied right behind him.  Collin Morikawa ($8,900) and Matthew Wolff ($8,200) are two of…...

Tony Finau and the Long-Awaited Trophy: The American Express PGA DFS Breakdown

We have a three-course rotation for the first time this PGA DFS season. The American Express is played on La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the Stadium Course. Each of the golfers in the field will get a crack at each course before playing the Stadium Course for a second time in the final round. That means 54 holes from each guy that you roster even if they go on to miss the cut. Yesterday, I unveiled Expected Birdies which is a metric I’ve been working on for the past few months. Today, we’ll be looking at a few plays  Buy Or Sell Sungjae Im ($11,000) has the best combination of Expected Birdies and Power Ranking in the $10,000-plus range. He’s definitely a buy for me this week but you’ll have to find some low-owned options to balance out the total ownership of your roster. Im finds himself…...

PGA DFS: Genesis Invitational – Expected Birdies

We’re heading to Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational this week. There are few fields in golf outside of the majors that boast a field like this. That means there is plenty of money to go around on DraftKings. If you’re interested in a deeper, statistical dive you can head…...

PGA DFS: Patrick Cantlay is Worth the Price of Admission at Pebble Beach

The Tour turns its attention towards Pebble Beach for the week. As I mentioned in yesterday’s article, we’re looking at a three-course rotation again this week. That means plenty of showdown strategy and a Saturday cut is on tap for this weekend.  Finish Position Category Average DK Score Top 25…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies – Pebble Beach Pro-Am

We’re back to another multi-course rotation this week. It’s the famous Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and you are likely familiar with the courses. If you aren’t familiar, check out last year’s preview and trends article. Lineup Review Before we jump into this week’s tourney, I wanted to take a quick minute…...

PGA DFS: Backtesting the Power Ranking Model

It’s been a little over six months since the first iteration of the Power Ranking model was released. Throughout the course of the season last year, there were some tweaks made here and there but I’ve overhauled it in the “offseason.”1 I wanted to take a look at how the…...

PGA DFS: Webb Simpson is Ready to Party at the WMPO

We are back at the biggest party in golf for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The golfers will be tasked with taming TPC Scottsdale. TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 course that plays about 7,260 yards. The course features 7,000-plus square foot greens which run about 12 feet on the…...

PGA DFS: Waste Management Phoenix Open – Expected Birdies

We are back at the biggest party in golf for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The golfers will be tasked with taming TPC Scottsdale. TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 course that plays about 7,260 yards. The course features 7,000-plus square foot greens which run about 12 feet on the…...

PGA DFS: Farmers Insurance Open – Expected Birdies

We spent a weekend at the three-course rotation of the American Express out in La Quinta, Calfironia. Now we’re playing just two tracks here. The Farmers Insurance Open is played at Torrey Pines Golf Course. There are two courses the golfers will be tasked with playing. Each golfer will get…...

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