The Tour is heading north to TPC Twin Cities for the second year in a row. The course is a par 72 that plays a touch over 7,160 yards. The field this week certainly has less star power than we saw at the Memorial. Still, there’s another Millionaire Maker on DraftKings and plenty of other great GPPs available across the industry.  Buy or Sell Paul Casey ($10,100) looks like he could be one of the most-owned golfers on the slate this week. We know from our game theory research on this range that we should probably avoid him if he turns out to be the chalk. My simulator has him with just the seventh-most wins this week. Certainly, a win would have him pay off quite well, but his recent play would make a victory somewhat shocking. Casey’s coming off of a missed cut at the Memorial that saw him…...

For the second week in a row, we’ll see PGA action at Muirfield Village. Make sure to check out the course preview. The Workday Charity Open is going to be a tough act to follow. It finished with a playoff that took three holes to settle the action between Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa. Luckily, we have one of the most star-studded fields you’ll ever see in a non-major this weekend. Buy or Sell Tiger Woods ($9,000) is making his return this week. I can’t think of many people that would’ve benefited more from a long layoff. Tiger played well back at Torrey Pines but struggled at the Genesis Invitational the last time we saw him. It’s always difficult to project his ownership because everyone in the industry talks about him whether they’re going to actually play him. The field is too loaded for him to get too chalky. This…...

We are back once again this week to break down the DraftKings slate for the Workday Charity Open. It’s the first of two weeks at Muirfield Village CC. If you’re looking for a more in-depth look at the course itself, you can head over to last year’s course preview. Buy or Sell As we’ve learned, fading the expensive chalk is a viable strategy in PGA DFS. Patrick Cantlay ($10,600) is shaping up to be the highest owned golfer in this range. From a golf perspective, Cantlay checks all of the boxes. But if you’re paying for someone over $10,000 you need to understand that you aren’t gaining much in terms of performance while also giving up any leverage you could’ve had with lower-owned golfers. …...

Every week, there’s a discussion of whether or not to play golfers coming off of a victory. It’s easy to say “well, this guy has been celebrating so we should fade” or “he’s obviously playing great golf so we should keep riding them until the wheels fall off.” Those are narratives, though — the stories we tell ourselves with little to no proof. We’re going to dive into winning performances and see if we can make heads or tails of this question. Who Wins Tournaments? It should come as no surprise that the most expensive golfers are the most likely to win tournaments. Just over 56% of the winners in the database have been priced at $8,500 or above. On the other end of the spectrum, just 3% of the trophy hoisters have come from below $6,500.  What Happens to a Winner’s Price in their Next Start?…...

I’ve spent most of the past three months diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts and it’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it.  The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a golfer’s potential ownership will be. Each week, I publish the PRK Model results alongside my ownership projections. With that in mind, I’ve decided to do a series on performance vs ownership at different salary ranges. In today’s piece, we’ll take a look at golfers that are between $6,500 and $7,400. …...

We are back in Detroit again this week for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. After a few weeks with plenty of star power, this field is a bit on the weaker side. That means that our decision-making has to be even crisper because if we want to spend up at the top for the “guaranteed” studs, we’ll need to find some cheap options that will buoy our lineups.   Buy or Sell Bryson DeChambeau ($11,700) is one of the most talked-about golfers in the world right now. My friends who don’t play PGA DFS and just watch every so often on the weekends are texting me videos of his drives. With that being said, his ownership is going to be astronomical.1 He has six straight finishes inside of the top eight. We know from the game theory piece on “studs” that we’re better off going elsewhere. Fading the top dollar golfer that’s…...

The PGA DFS Optimizer has been live here at RotoViz for some time now. I use it as a part of my lineup building process to see who the PRK Model likes each week. This week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic features a much weaker field than we’ve seen since the restart. After I run through a couple of different exercises with the optimizer, I get a better feel for where the model wants my exposure to be. Now, I always adjust once I run ownership projections, but this process helps me narrow down my player pool.  Ultimate Stars and Scrubs When I start this process, I take the two most expensive golfers and lock them in. This week, that means Bryson DeChambeau ($11,700) and Webb Simpson ($11,000). I then run the optimizer for 50 lineups with the randomness on 10%.1  Name Frequency Webb Simpson 100% Bryson DeChambeau 100% Cameron Tringale 56%…...

I’ve spent most of the past three months diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts and it’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it.  The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a golfer’s potential ownership will be. Each week, I publish the PRK Model results alongside my ownership projections. With that in mind, I’ve decided to do a series on performance vs ownership at different salary ranges. We’ll start at the top with golfers that are between $7,500 and $8,400.  What Does…...

I’ve spent most of the past three months diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts. It’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it.  The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a golfer’s potential ownership will be. Each week, I publish the PRK Model results alongside my ownership projections. With that in mind, I’ve decided to do a series on performance vs ownership at different salary ranges. Last time we looked at golfers who were priced at $9,500 or above. Today we’ll look…...

We’re heading up to Cromwell, CT for the Travelers Championship. If you’re looking for a more in-depth statistical breakdown of the course, you can check out last year’s course preview article.  Buy or Sell The expensive chalk this week is shaping up to be Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000). We learned in this Part 1 of the PGA DFS Game Theory Series that the highest owned golfers in the $9,500-plus range don’t necessarily pay off as well as one might think. Eating the chalk in this range provides a slightly higher floor rate, but does nothing for a golfer’s ceiling. Bryson seems like a prime candidate to bet at a sportsbook and fade in DFS.  …...