Every week, there’s a discussion of whether or not to play golfers coming off of a victory. It’s easy to say “well, this guy has been celebrating so we should fade” or “he’s obviously playing great golf so we should keep riding them until the wheels fall off.” Those are narratives, though — the stories we tell ourselves with little to no proof. We’re going to dive into winning performances and see if we can make heads or tails of this question. Who Wins Tournaments? It should come as no surprise that the most expensive golfers are the most likely to win tournaments. Just over 56% of the winners in the database have been priced at $8,500 or above. On the other end of the spectrum, just 3% of the trophy hoisters have come from below $6,500.  What Happens to a Winner’s Price in their Next Start?…...

I’ve spent most of the past three months diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts and it’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it.  The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a golfer’s potential ownership will be. Each week, I publish the PRK Model results alongside my ownership projections. With that in mind, I’ve decided to do a series on performance vs ownership at different salary ranges. In today’s piece, we’ll take a look at golfers that are between $6,500 and $7,400. …...

We are back in Detroit again this week for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. After a few weeks with plenty of star power, this field is a bit on the weaker side. That means that our decision-making has to be even crisper because if we want to spend up at the top for the “guaranteed” studs, we’ll need to find some cheap options that will buoy our lineups.   Buy or Sell Bryson DeChambeau ($11,700) is one of the most talked-about golfers in the world right now. My friends who don’t play PGA DFS and just watch every so often on the weekends are texting me videos of his drives. With that being said, his ownership is going to be astronomical.1 He has six straight finishes inside of the top eight. We know from the game theory piece on “studs” that we’re better off going elsewhere. Fading the top dollar golfer that’s…...

The PGA DFS Optimizer has been live here at RotoViz for some time now. I use it as a part of my lineup building process to see who the PRK Model likes each week. This week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic features a much weaker field than we’ve seen since the restart. After I run through a couple of different exercises with the optimizer, I get a better feel for where the model wants my exposure to be. Now, I always adjust once I run ownership projections, but this process helps me narrow down my player pool.  Ultimate Stars and Scrubs When I start this process, I take the two most expensive golfers and lock them in. This week, that means Bryson DeChambeau ($11,700) and Webb Simpson ($11,000). I then run the optimizer for 50 lineups with the randomness on 10%.1  Name Frequency Webb Simpson 100% Bryson DeChambeau 100% Cameron Tringale 56%…...

I’ve spent most of the past three months diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts and it’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it.  The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a golfer’s potential ownership will be. Each week, I publish the PRK Model results alongside my ownership projections. With that in mind, I’ve decided to do a series on performance vs ownership at different salary ranges. We’ll start at the top with golfers that are between $7,500 and $8,400.  What Does…...

I’ve spent most of the past three months diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts. It’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it.  The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a golfer’s potential ownership will be. Each week, I publish the PRK Model results alongside my ownership projections. With that in mind, I’ve decided to do a series on performance vs ownership at different salary ranges. Last time we looked at golfers who were priced at $9,500 or above. Today we’ll look…...

We’re heading up to Cromwell, CT for the Travelers Championship. If you’re looking for a more in-depth statistical breakdown of the course, you can check out last year’s course preview article.  Buy or Sell The expensive chalk this week is shaping up to be Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000). We learned in this Part 1 of the PGA DFS Game Theory Series that the highest owned golfers in the $9,500-plus range don’t necessarily pay off as well as one might think. Eating the chalk in this range provides a slightly higher floor rate, but does nothing for a golfer’s ceiling. Bryson seems like a prime candidate to bet at a sportsbook and fade in DFS.  …...

I’ve spent most of the past few years diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts and it’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it.  The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a golfer’s potential ownership will be. Each week, I publish the PRK Model results alongside my ownership projections. With that in mind, I’ve decided to do a series on performance versus ownership at different salary ranges. We’ll start at the top with golfers that are priced at $9,500 and up. What…...

After a solid week down in Texas, the Tour turns its attention to Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage. If you want an in-depth look at this week’s track, head over to last year’s preview article. Buy or Sell Webb Simpson ($9,000) is coming back off of a disappointing performance down in Texas, missing the cut as one of the most heavily owned golfers in the field. Despite that disappointment, people will likely be going right back to the well with him. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t one of the top three owned golfers on the slate this week. How do $9,000 golfers that are highly owned perform, you ask? Historically, you don’t gain much by eating chalk in the $8,500-$9,400 range. Golfers that are at least 18% owned have hit 89 or more DK Points 22% of the time. That’s only one percentage point higher than…...

It has been quite some time since we were able to talk golf, but the return is right around the corner. The tour heads out to Colonial Country Club down in Fort Worth, Texas, for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This course has been in the rotation since the 1940s. It’s a par 70 that plays just a shade over 7,200 yards. Colonial features relatively small greens (4,500 square feet) that are bentgrass. The field will have to navigate their way around 85 bunkers and four water hazards. To see an in-depth course breakdown, head over to last year’s preview article. Checking the Chalk As of right now, it looks like we will have five golfers soaking up most of the ownership. At the top of the salary scales, we have Rory McIlroy ($11,800) and Jon Rahm ($11,000) projected for 20% or higher ownership. Rory has the top salary and the…...