Mega Chalk Is Rare in the $6,500-$7,400 Range, But Is It Worth Chasing When We Find It?

I’ve spent most of the past three months diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts and it’s a fool’s errand to…...

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PGA Tools

Mega Chalk Is Rare in the $6,500-$7,400 Range, But Is It Worth Chasing When We Find It?

I’ve spent most of the past three months diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts and it’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it.  The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a…...

full access to all pga content...

For the 2019 season, full access to all PGA content will be included with a RotoViz subscription. 

PGA - Tools

There’s a Bryson DeChambeau Clone On Sale for 40% Off: Top Plays and Pivots for the Rocket Mortgage Classic

We are back in Detroit again this week for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. After a few weeks with plenty of star power, this field is a bit on the weaker side. That means that our decision-making has to be even crisper because if we want to spend up at the top for the “guaranteed” studs, we’ll need to find some cheap options that will buoy our lineups.   Buy or Sell Bryson DeChambeau ($11,700) is one of the most talked-about golfers in the world right now. My friends who don’t play PGA DFS and just watch every so often on the weekends are texting me videos of his drives. With that being said, his ownership is going to be astronomical.1 He has six straight finishes inside of the top eight. We know from the game theory piece on “studs” that we’re better off going elsewhere. Fading the top dollar golfer that’s…...

The PGA DFS Optimizer Preview: Lineup Options for the Rocket Mortgage Classic

The PGA DFS Optimizer has been live here at RotoViz for some time now. I use it as a part of my lineup building process to see who the PRK Model likes each week. This week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic features a much weaker field than we’ve seen since the restart. After I run through a couple of different exercises with the optimizer, I get a better feel for where the model wants my exposure to be. Now, I always adjust once I run ownership projections, but this process helps me narrow down my player pool.  Ultimate Stars and Scrubs When I start this process, I take the two most expensive golfers and lock them in. This week, that means Bryson DeChambeau ($11,700) and Webb Simpson ($11,000). I then run the optimizer for 50 lineups with the randomness on 10%.1  Name Frequency Webb Simpson 100% Bryson DeChambeau 100% Cameron Tringale 56%…...

If You’re Going to Play Chalk, Get It at a Discount: Are We Good at Picking Golfers in the $8,400 to $7,500 Range?

I’ve spent most of the past three months diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts and it’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it.  The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a golfer’s potential ownership will be. Each week, I publish the PRK Model results alongside my ownership projections. With that in mind, I’ve decided to do a series on performance vs ownership at different salary ranges. We’ll start at the top with golfers that are between $7,500 and $8,400.  What Does…...

PGA DFS Game Theory: How To Pick Golfers in the $9,400 to $8,500 Range

I’ve spent most of the past three months diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts. It’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it.  The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a golfer’s potential ownership will be. Each week, I publish the PRK Model results alongside my ownership projections. With that in mind, I’ve decided to do a series on performance vs ownership at different salary ranges. Last time we looked at golfers who were priced at $9,500 or above. Today we’ll look…...

PGA DFS: Travelers Championship Slate Breakdown

We’re heading up to Cromwell, CT for the Travelers Championship. If you’re looking for a more in-depth statistical breakdown of the course, you can check out last year’s course preview article.  Buy or Sell The expensive chalk this week is shaping up to be Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000). We learned in this Part 1 of the PGA DFS Game Theory Series that the highest owned golfers in the $9,500-plus range don’t necessarily pay off as well as one might think. Eating the chalk in this range provides a slightly higher floor rate, but does nothing for a golfer’s ceiling. Bryson seems like a prime candidate to bet at a sportsbook and fade in DFS.  …...

PGA DFS Game Theory: How To Pick Golfers in the $9,500 and Up Range

I’ve spent most of the past few years diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with some, rare exceptions. On the other end, we have things like putting performance. The variance is off the charts and it’s a fool’s errand to devote much time to predicting it.  The one piece of information that we can be reasonably sure of heading into a tournament is what a golfer’s potential ownership will be. Each week, I publish the PRK Model results alongside my ownership projections. With that in mind, I’ve decided to do a series on performance versus ownership at different salary ranges. We’ll start at the top with golfers that are priced at $9,500 and up. What…...

PGA DFS: Justin Thomas is Locked and Loaded at the RBC Heritage

After a solid week down in Texas, the Tour turns its attention to Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage. If you want an in-depth look at this week’s track, head over to last year’s preview article. Buy or Sell Webb Simpson ($9,000) is coming back off of a disappointing performance down in Texas, missing the cut as one of the most heavily owned golfers in the field. Despite that disappointment, people will likely be going right back to the well with him. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t one of the top three owned golfers on the slate this week. How do $9,000 golfers that are highly owned perform, you ask? Historically, you don’t gain much by eating chalk in the $8,500-$9,400 range. Golfers that are at least 18% owned have hit 89 or more DK Points 22% of the time. That’s only one percentage point higher than…...

PGA DFS: Charles Schwab Challenge Slate Breakdown

It has been quite some time since we were able to talk golf, but the return is right around the corner. The tour heads out to Colonial Country Club down in Fort Worth, Texas, for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This course has been in the rotation since the 1940s. It’s a par 70 that plays just a shade over 7,200 yards. Colonial features relatively small greens (4,500 square feet) that are bentgrass. The field will have to navigate their way around 85 bunkers and four water hazards. To see an in-depth course breakdown, head over to last year’s preview article. Checking the Chalk As of right now, it looks like we will have five golfers soaking up most of the ownership. At the top of the salary scales, we have Rory McIlroy ($11,800) and Jon Rahm ($11,000) projected for 20% or higher ownership. Rory has the top salary and the…...

PGA DFS: The PLAYERS Championship Breakdown

We’re heading back to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. It’s a course that many of us are familiar with. If you want a look at how the field shakes out in Expected Birdies this week, check out yesterday’s article. Buy or Sell We’re sitting here with another event where Rory McIlroy ($11,700) is just simply lapping the field in PRK Score. Even in the strongest field of the year, by just about any metric, McIlroy is far ahead of his closest competitor. As far as Raw PRK Score goes, Rory is at -2.40.1 The closest guy in the field to McIlroy is Justin Thomas ($10,800) and he’s at -1.83. That implies at least a 0.5 stroke advantage per round for McIlroy over everyone else in the field. On courses longer than 7,200 yards, McIlroy sees a slight bump in all of the major statistics we’re focusing on.  Rory has…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies for The PLAYERS Championship

We’re heading back to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. It’s a course  If you want a more in-depth look at the statistical breakdown of the course, check out last year’s course preview. Here’s a look at the field shakes out in Expected Birdies this week. Standouts Pricing is always interesting in these strong fields. Collin Morikawa ($7,900) is below $8,000 despite his impressive made cut streak. He is coming off of a top-10 finish as well. Oh, and he’s also tied for sixth in Expected Birdies with a 92. Matt Kuchar ($7,800) also comes in sporting an excellent course fit via the Expected Birdies model. Many of the golfers in his price range are sitting in the 70s while Kuchar gets an 86 from the model this week. The big exception to that is Scottie Scheffler ($7,500). Scheffler was a couple of mistakes away from a top-five finish last week and has shown…...

PGA DFS Game Theory: How To Pick Golfers in the $9,400 to $8,500 Range

I’ve spent most of the past three months diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with…...

PGA DFS: Travelers Championship Slate Breakdown

We’re heading up to Cromwell, CT for the Travelers Championship. If you’re looking for a more in-depth statistical breakdown of the course, you can check out last year’s course preview article.  Buy or Sell The expensive chalk this week is shaping up to be Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000). We learned in…...

PGA DFS Game Theory: How To Pick Golfers in the $9,500 and Up Range

I’ve spent most of the past few years diving into different ways to model PGA Tour performance. As with most things, predicting golf exists on a spectrum. On the “most predictable” side of that spectrum, you have things like Driving Distance. It doesn’t really change from event to event with…...

PGA DFS: Justin Thomas is Locked and Loaded at the RBC Heritage

After a solid week down in Texas, the Tour turns its attention to Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage. If you want an in-depth look at this week’s track, head over to last year’s preview article. Buy or Sell Webb Simpson ($9,000) is coming back off of a…...

PGA DFS: Charles Schwab Challenge Slate Breakdown

It has been quite some time since we were able to talk golf, but the return is right around the corner. The tour heads out to Colonial Country Club down in Fort Worth, Texas, for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This course has been in the rotation since the 1940s. It’s…...

PGA DFS: The PLAYERS Championship Breakdown

We’re heading back to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. It’s a course that many of us are familiar with. If you want a look at how the field shakes out in Expected Birdies this week, check out yesterday’s article. Buy or Sell We’re sitting here with another event where…...

PGA DFS: Expected Birdies for The PLAYERS Championship

We’re heading back to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship. It’s a course  If you want a more in-depth look at the statistical breakdown of the course, check out last year’s course preview. Here’s a look at the field shakes out in Expected Birdies this week. Standouts Pricing is always…...

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