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Some Brief Thoughts on Time, Certainty and Options

I’m midway through a dynasty draft organized by Rotoworld and @RotoPat and had some thoughts that seemed worth writing down. After looking through my roster of this dynasty start up, my team looks old in way that is a little worrisome.  Here is my roster as of my latest pick:

RB: TRich, DeMarco Murray, DuJuan Harris, Robert Turbin

WR: Victor Cruz, Roddy White, Marques Colston, Mile Austin, Denarius Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Brandon LaFell

QB: Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton

TE: None so far

Some people would be scared to death of my QB combo and I can’t say that I have any confidence either, but my draft plan was to pretty much draft a team that could start 5 WRs as this is a PPR league.  In order to try to get some value, I ended up taking receivers that are pretty old (White, Colston and Austin specifically).  That probably doesn’t bode well for future years in this league, but here’s the thought I had which drove my comfort with the strategy: as time increases, options also increase.  As time increases, certainty decreases.

So basically I’ve applied heavy discounting to future certainty regarding any football players and have opted for more of a “now” strategy.  Here’s a graphical representation of these ideas.

options

certainty

So I’m drafting as if the problems I’m creating with roster age can be solved later somehow (that’s the options increasing part) and also as if I don’t know which players will even be in the league in future years (that’s the certainty decreasing part)… or that’s the thought anyway, who knows if it will work.

This league has a murderer’s row of drafters that all draft pretty similarly I think (it’s not even worth thinking “maybe this guy will make it back around to me” as the guy you’re looking at never makes it back around to you) so it’s going to be a tough league.  Opting to chase value in the form of older players is one small attempt at trying to be contrary.  When you have a generally efficient market (I think this league is really close) then it makes some sense to try a contrary strategy.

Here’s a link to the draft in case you’re curious.

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