One of the things that we spend a good amount of time talking about here is the idea that when you draft, you should try to get production for as cheap as you can. If a player’s production can be replaced by a lower cost player, then you should probably take the lower cost player. When you finally run into a player whose production can’t be replaced, then use a high draft pick to take that player. You should spend valuable picks on the truly rare.
When I ran Mike Wallace’s name through the ADP Arbitrage App tonight I saw that not only could you replace all of his 2012 production with lower priced guys, but that the lower priced guys were kind of all in the same range. Here’s the table:
|Subject Player Positional ADP: 21|
|Comparables Average Positional ADP: 41.3|
Interestingly, all three of these guys ended up in the “My Guys” piece I just wrote. Maybe that’s a way of saying that I don’t hate Mike Wallace, I just want to take a few swings at picking up his production for a lower price. The Wallace apologists will at this point interject about a new team and increased role in the offense. That’s all fine and dandy, but keep in mind that the three receivers he’s similar to weren’t in exactly stellar situations last year and they probably also have a claim for increased production this year. Jeremy Maclin could benefit from an all-around better offense. Mike Williams’ targets were trending up towards the end of the year so he could see more usage in 2013. Denarius Moore’s situation could also improve… ok, fine, Moore is the one whose situation actually seems to have gone from bad to worse. Maybe it’s fine to remove his name from the list if you really want to. Stupid Raiders.