revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

Philip Rivers is the King of the World—or at least the Waiver Wire

philiprivers
Shortly before the season started, I (boldly) suggested that Philip Rivers wouldn’t suck too much in 2013. Specifically, I said this:

“I want to (re)introduce you to the QB and captain of the 2013 Waiver Wire Wonders, Philip Rivers, who may currently be the ultimate late-round QB. He’s so unwanted that not even the people who draft unwanted QBs want him, and that means he very well could be if not fantasy gold at least something akin to fantasy silver or bronze.

Remember, I’m not saying that he’ll be great. I’m just saying that his existence on waivers should make you feel secure enough to include your high-end QB2 in a trade that brings you a stud WR1 to use as your WR2.”

Remember, this information is coming from the “expert” who said within the last six months that this guy was the most undervalued WR in the 2013 rookie class and this guy could be the next Arian Foster. They’re both now retired, so not everything I say is fantasy gold.

Having said that, I’ll also say that I believe I was right about Philip Rivers in a massive way, since grabbing Rivers off waivers is a move that could win you a championship if he keeps up his production. And what’s crazy is that in many leagues Rivers is still available on waivers. I won’t repeat everything I said in the last article about how Rivers over the course of his starting career is a top-10 QB, or how his first 7 years as a starter look similar to those of Tom Brady and Drew Brees, or how bad Rivers’ offensive line was the last two years, or how Norv Turner is a bad coach, or how Mike McCoy (“The Kingmaker”) turns replacement-level QBs into low-end QB1s and returns former QB1s to their former glory. (Read the article if you want the details.)

Let’s forget about what Rivers has done in the past. For some reason, people are still holding that against him. Let’s just look at what Rivers has done in 2013. He’s completed 65.8% of his passes for 614 yards and 7 TDs in just two games. He’s thrown 1 interception and hasn’t fumbled the ball. He’s currently the #4 QB in lots of leagues. He’s looked good. He’s basically looked a lot like the non-2012 Rivers.

The question is whether he can continue to play at this high level. I think he can. He might not finish the year as a top-5 QB, but he’s a QB1 for the rest of the season. He’s a guy who can be started in a lot of matchups with confidence. To me his 2012 season reeks of aberrancy, and I think what we’re seeing now is the ideal Philip Rivers when he’s running an offense that works for him.

The reason Rivers is still on waivers in some leagues is because people think that he will regress. He may, but that regression could happen to lots of QBs who start the season on fire.

I decided to do a PFR screen for QBs with seasonal starts similar to Rivers’. I looked at all Week 1 and Week 2 performances from 2000 to 2012, and focused on those resulting in 514-714 yards and 6-8 TD passes. I also eliminated all QBs from consideration who missed 6 or more games due to injuries, since injuries seem to be largely unforeseeable in most players.

Here’s the resulting table:

Player

Age

Year

Tm

Yds

TD

Int

PR

Carson Palmer

27

2007

CIN

595

8

2

9

Matthew Stafford

23

2011

DET

599

7

2

5

Drew Brees

32

2011

NOR

689

6

0

2

Peyton Manning

34

2010

CLT

688

6

0

5

Peyton Manning

25

2001

CLT

652

6

4

4

Jay Cutler

25

2008

DEN

650

6

1

4

Philip Rivers

26

2008

SDG

594

6

1

3

Daunte Culpepper

27

2004

MIN

585

6

1

1

Tom Brady

30

2007

NWE

576

6

1

1

Donovan McNabb

27

2004

PHI

575

6

0

3

Brian Griese

26

2001

DEN

572

6

0

16

Tony Romo

27

2007

DAL

531

6

1

2

Avg

27.42

NA

NA

608.83

6.25

1.08

4.58

Median

27

NA

NA

594.5

6

1

3.5

Philip Rivers

31

2013

SDG

614

7

1

??

So about once per year since 2000 a guy starts out the season looking a lot like Rivers has looked the last 2 weeks, and on average that guy finishes as a top-5 QB. Almost always he’s a top-10 QB. Only once has he not been a QB1, and that guy (Brian Griese) still finished as a respectable QB2.

You’ll notice that Philip Rivers is on this list. When I say 2013 Rivers looks like pre-2012 Rivers, that’s not a crazy statement. He looks like his former self, and the last time he looked like exactly this he was a top-3 QB.

Rivers hasn’t always looked great in Weeks 1 and 2—that back-breaking pick-six INT in Week 1 was brutal, and his little shot-put screen pass to Eddie Royal (you know the pass) looked awful—but passing numbers in general are good, and he’s protecting the football so far while keeping the Chargers in games.

Basically, I think that Mike McCoy is fixing and managing Philip Rivers back into a QB1 with top-5 upside. If you have Michael Vick and are already worried about how long he can last, get Rivers on your team. Or if you think that Ben Roethlisburger isn’t the QB for you, get Rivers off of waivers. Of if you have Tom Brady and realize that the Patriots screwed him, get Rivers.

Whatever your situation, get Rivers. He should be owned in all leagues. You might not want to drop your WR6, RB5, TE2 or “prized” QB2 to pick him up, but Rivers looks a lot like the QB from 2006-2011. That is, he looks like a QB1, and you can never have too many starting-caliber players sitting on your bench. Grab him, hold him, and wait till you need him or you can trade him.

The point is this: Week 3 may be the last week in which Rivers is available on waivers in lots of leagues. I think he’s priority #1. He’s not just the captain of the Waiver Wire Wonders. He’s the King of the Fantasy World.

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

Dynasty Fallout From the End of the Philip Rivers Era

Last week, the quarterback taken by the San Diego Chargers with the first overall selection in the 2004 NFL Draft announced his retirement. On Monday, Jay Glazer reported that the Chargers were set to move on from the QB they got when they traded the first to the New York

Read More

Dynasty Trade Targets 2020 – Running Back Edition

In Dynasty Trade Targets 2020 – Running Back Edition, Curtis Patrick gives away the names of three running backs he’s buying right now. As rookie fever sets in across the dynasty community, the offseason trade window also begins to crack open. I’m sharing three of my top dynasty trade targets

Read More

Why You Should Buy High on Deebo Samuel

Roster management has quickly become one of my favorite aspects of dynasty football. The concept of running a team year-round, crafting it and tweaking it to my liking, and scoring big on off-season trades is just as fun as the in-season thrill of weekly matchups. I am working on being

Read More
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.