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The Bye Week Buy Low: Demaryius Thomas

Julius Thomas, Wes Welker, Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas

One of the things that’s worth trying in the trade market is to target an owner with a stud going on bye, where you can appeal to that owner’s desire to win their weekly matchup. Lots of owners won’t go for this kind of thing because lots of owners manager their fantasy teams like they’re steering an oil tanker. Which makes this kind of an odd strategy because you have to find a trade partner who is smart enough to realize that they should manage their team weekly, but who is also emotional enough to part with Demaryius Thomas after some early season disappointments. If we made a Venn diagram the overlapping area might be really small.

But I think it’s worth trying anyway because after the bye Denver gets Arizona, the New York Jets, and San Francisco. All have been pretty forgiving to opposing wide receivers.

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Arizona gave up 10/80/1 to Michael Crabtree and also gave up 9/103/0 to Steve Johnson in the same game. The Jets allowed a combined five TDs to the following WRs: Jordy Nelson, Rod Streater, Randall Cobb, and James Jones. That’s in just two games. Then the San Francisco defense has allowed 114 yards to Michael Floyd, a three-touchdown game to Brandon Marshall, and a two-TD game to John Brown.

If you want to get really cute, you could then try to sell DT high after the San Francsico game at which point he’ll hopefully (key word, hopefully) have erased any doubts regarding his early season low point output.

Probably the way I would try to swing this trade is to use DT’s struggles as a way to get the other owner to do a two for one deal that they wouldn’t otherwise do. Most owners are skeptical of the two for one trades because they realize that the goal is to maximize the contribution of each roster spot. But when you’re trying to buy low it’s a lot easier to get the other owner to look at the pieces you’re offering and think that there might be good reason to make the trade. Maybe you could get the other owner to do something like Demaryius Thomas for Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Wallace. I don’t know how many owners would make that trade, but I do think it’s on the table now, whereas in Week 1 it would have been insta-rejected. Before you do that you should have a good sense that Thomas is healthy (he’s had some issues with his foot), and you also need a deep enough team to trade depth for a stud. Also, just to address a question readers might have after seeing Benjamin in the sell side of a trade after I’ve been fairly high on him, I should say that I think he looks really good thus far. He’s been pretty much exactly what you wanted both in terms of usage and efficiency. But the Carolina offense is also going to be inconsistent I think. And since I would rather have DT than Benjamin it’s just a question of whether I would throw Wallace in to the deal. In my mind Wallace is going to put up production that’s pretty replaceable. So I really don’t mind parting with him assuming I can throw someone like Brian Quick into the starting spot that Wallace was occupying.

We’re coming up on what I consider to be the most fun part of the fantasy season – the period of time where it really is possible to get bargains on players – usually getting trades accepted is a volume-based endeavor as you have to keep trying and can’t be discouraged by rejection. But it’s the best way to really build a monster for the stretch run.

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