Dynasty leagues never end. If you’re like me, you’re constantly looking for trades, free agent pick-ups, and other ways to improve your team. Since the fantasy stock market is constantly shifting in value, it becomes a constant effort to buy low and sell high. Fortunately here at RotoViz, we have an app that shows how leagues are valuing players right now. Using our Dynasty ADP App, here are five players who are sell-highs, and some potential trades you could make with them.
Odell Beckham, Value – 100
Odell Beckham is the highest valued player in trades right now, and reasonably so after he tore up the league in just 12 games as a rookie. OBJ is an incredibly safe investment, but his value will probably never be higher than it is right now, meaning you can fetch another elite WR and more:
Demaryius Thomas looks like a relative buy-low right now, with people concerned about his long term viability sans-Peyton Manning. The reality is that he is an elite WR who isn’t even guaranteed to play 2016 in Denver, so the Manning factor shouldn’t weigh as heavily. The trade calculator says you can get Tevin Coleman or Ameer Abdullah with DT right now for ODB, which is a move worth making in my opinion.
How about trading Beckham for two good, young WR? DeAndre Hopkins could blow up in 2015, which makes this possibly the last time his value is this low for a long time. The same can be said for Jordan Matthews, who is entering year two with Chip Kelly and the Eagles. The addition of Nelson Agholor in this year’s draft does not dampen Matthews’ long term prospects, as the Eagle offense is prolific enough to support two WRs. A good argument could have been made for him as the top rookie pick last summer, and he could be a WR1 for a long time. This is a high-upside two-for-one deal that I think will be a net gain over time.
Jeremy Hill, Value – 52
Jeremy Hill was a monster last year as a rookie, finishing as an RB1 despite playing sparingly to begin the season. However I think he is being overvalued right now in dynasty leagues. Hill still has to compete for touches with Gio Bernard, who is also an accomplished receiving back for the Bengals. That could make Hill very game-flow dependent, as he will be at his best when the game is close or Cincinnati is working with a lead. Bernard is still under contract through 2016, which caps Hill’s upside for the next couple of seasons.
Instead of holding a player who may not fully appreciate for another couple of seasons, if at all considering his position, you could trade him for RB who is elite right now. Arian Foster was last year’s RB6 despite missing three games and receiving a total of 13 carries in two others. He is expected to still receive a monster workload after the team failed to add any kind of significant backup, and is still under contract through 2016. He is all but guaranteed to outproduce Hill in 2015, and potentially 2016 as well. Foster plus a potential breakout like Rueben Randle looks like a great haul.
If rookies are your game, it looks like the public is currently valuing Hill and top rookie WR Amari Cooper about the same. I would gladly take Cooper in this swap, who came out as our top rated RotoViz rookie. He has a great shot to be at least a WR2 as a rookie, and should have more years of productivity than Hill considering position.
Jimmy Graham, Value – 50
The high point of Jimmy Graham’s value has probably come and gone now that he was traded to the Seahawks, but I still think he is being valued higher than he is worth in dynasty leagues. He carries name value despite being on a team that is sure to be more run-heavy than the Saints. Furthermore, Graham will be 29 in November and is a player that has already struggled with injuries in his career. I’m not panicking on Graham for 2015, but I think his value will be on the decline going forward.
A really good case can be made for Travis Kelce over Graham straight up in dynasty formats right now, so I will definitely take him plus Graham’s underrated former teammate, Marques Colston. Kelce was incredibly efficient last season, and the RotoViz staff is projected him to finish with more 2015 fantasy points than Graham. If I owned Graham in a dynasty league, I’d be dialing up1 the Kelce owner right now.
Todd Gurley and Cooper each come in with values slightly ahead of Graham’s (54 and 51 respectively), and I think make solid targets. It would not surprise me at all to see the owner of one of those two players deal for Graham straight up, and if you have to add a little more to get one of this year’s top rookies, it is probably worth it.
Kelvin Benjamin, Value – 47
Kelvin Benjamin returned excellent value as a rookie, finishing as WR15 despite being a latter first round rookie pick. Justin Winn pointed out last year that Benjamin was the rookie to own in both re-draft and dynasty leagues last season, mostly because his value would appreciate very quickly with a strong first year. Now that has happened, it is time to cash out, as he may no longer be the receiver to own in Carolina.
If you told me I could have Matthews straight up for Benjamin, I would jump on it in a heartbeat. This is a clear situation where two players have arrows pointing in opposite directions.
Why not trade last year’s Kelvin Benjamin for this year’s Kelvin Benjamin? Breshad Perriman is in a very similar situation Benjamin was in last year, and could run away with the WR1 job in Baltimore early on. This is a Marc Trestman offense giving Perriman perhaps the highest ceiling of any rookie. Trading Benjamin for Perriman and more is the perfect way to play the fantasy stock market on rookie year production.
Carlos Hyde, Value – 44
Carlos Hyde really should serve as a warning tale to all rookie drafters looking to take RBs that are “a year away”. Last year the 49ers were coming off a season in which they reached the NFC Championship game led by their dominant run game. In 2014, the team regressed immensely, failing to even make the playoffs. In this off-season, they have already lost top lineman Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis, and added both veteran Reggie Bush and rookie Mike Davis.
The loss of linemen could be a huge detriment to the effectiveness of their run game, and the Niners are only projected to win 7.5 games this year, meaning that they should have to pass the ball more than in the past. Bush is an accomplished pass catcher, which should make Hyde a two-down specialist, and Davis is an underrated prospect. All of this means Hyde’s dynasty value probably will never reach the lofty expectations people had for him a year ago, and you should sell him now before the fantasy fallout takes full effect.
C.J. Anderson’s outlook may be somewhat fragile, but I would much rather have him for 2015 than I would Hyde. He stands to be the lead rusher for a team that is projected to win 10.5 games this season and is coached by Gary Kubiak. He is RB8 right now in our staff projections, and if he can successfully hold off Montee Ball again, he could finish even higher and have an amazing long term outlook with Manning on the way out soon in Denver.
Another RB I’d gladly take for Hyde is TJ Yeldon, who has history on his side in the quest for rookie fantasy value. Right now it looks like you can get Yeldon and a flier like Matt Freedman’s beloved Vince Mayle. Marshawn Lynch and Foster are other backs less valued than Hyde right now, but Anderson and Yeldon seem like the two you could most likely acquire.
- Okay, probably messaging (back)