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Diary of a DFS Novice: FanDuel Week 5

After a brief moment in the sun, I went right back to losing in Week 5. Here’s the rundown.

Bankroll Progress

GameIn PlayReturn

Started With: $1000
Current Total: $906

Through five weeks of the season, I have managed to lose just under 10 percent of my initial bankroll. This is where sound bankroll management can pay off, because I have not played particularly well, but I haven’t really lost that much. I’m still in a very good position to keep grinding out my games, and hopefully pull in a big GPP finish. Let’s recap all that was in Week 5.

What Went Right

Head to Heads – While my cash lineup wasn’t the best (as I’ll talk about later), I still managed to go 29-28 in my H2H games. This really is the strength of playing mostly H2H’s with a single cash lineup, as I was able to salvage a large chunk of my weekly investment without having a dominant lineup. An interesting subplot here: I posted some H2H’s and had 15 of them picked up by the same player. He, however, used 15 different lineups and I was able to go 12-3 against him. It’s a small sample size, but I think it goes a long way to showcase why H2H is better with a single lineup approach. There is just so much variance within a single entry, you can gain better results by using the same lineup across entries.

Tyler Eifert – Eifert was my most owned tight end this week, as I loved the matchup against a Seattle defense ranked in the bottom three of DVOA against TEs. He answered the bell with eight receptions for 90 yards and two touchdowns. While I was only able to muster a single min-level cash in my GPPs, it was not for lack of TE production.

Allen Robinson – I probably owe most of my H2H success to Robinson, as he was a very cheap play at $6300 and payed off big time with a 22.7 FP performance. He really picked me up after some of my other cash game plays fell through in a big way. I’m not sure how I feel about him being my top scorer in a lineup with some stud players, but it certainly worked out this week.

What Went Wrong

Jamaal Charles – This isn’t Charles’ fault obviously, as he was lost for the year with a torn ACL shortly after halftime on Sunday, but his absence killed me in many lineups. I went cheap in a lot of places to get both he and Le’Veon Bell in my cash games, and being left with single digit points was killer. The same goes for my GPPs, as he was my highest owned RB. It honestly could have cost me a lot more had Robinson not balled out like he did, but this was a very disheartening moment to my weekend.1

Mike Evans Week – I declared it Mike Evans Week last week, and I put my money where my mouth was, as he was owned in a majority of my GPP lineups. Unfortunately, it did not pay off. The Bucs offense went through Doug Martin, and Evans was only targeted five times. I think having conviction about players is good and can pay off big time when they hit, but this week I got it completely wrong.

Charles Clay – I decided not to pay up for Gronk this week, and instead rolled Clay in my cash lineup, thinking it was a pretty safe play. The Titans were dead last in DVOA against TEs and Sammy Watkins had been ruled out for the Bills. This painted a picture of a heavily targeted TE in a plus matchup. Instead, Clay struggled with injury and cramping throughout the game, and managed just one catch for seven yards. I think fading Gronk was absolutely the correct call this week, but I needed to get more points out of that spot.

Changes for Week 6

– I need to do a better job of assessing player updates in a wide scope. What I mean is: I need to see how an injury or inactive affects the entire offense, not just that player or position he plays and use it to my advantage in lineup creation. For instance, Sunday morning I saw that Julio Jones was still being bothered by his hamstring injury, so I took him out of all the GPP lineups I had him in. The correct move though was probably to also pivot to Devonta Freeman at RB since the Falcons pass game was almost sure to be limited by Jones’ issues. Instead, I failed to use Freeman for the third week in a row, and he was again a top scorer. There are other examples of this, but that one in particular stood out to me this week.

– Andy Dalton is getting really close to must play status for me, if he isn’t there already. He hasn’t scored fewer than 18 FP all season, yet is still being priced under $8,000. He seems like a lock for 2x value every week, and I will be giving him heavy consideration as my cash game QB, even in a road game at Buffalo.

  1. To be honest, it would have been sad even if I didn’t own him. Charles has been a great RB for years and it’s hard to see him go out like that.  (back)
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