Things at Las Vegas were going along just fine. Then BAM! The Vegas version of “The Big One” happened when Matt Kenseth got loose and slid up the track. He had the car saved, but lost a ton of speed. That’s when Chase Elliott plowed into Kenseth from behind, setting off a chain reaction that collected Carl Edwards among other drivers. As a result, a daily fantasy NASCAR day that looked promising was suddenly a disastrous day.
Those are the breaks in NASCAR DFS. The key is to persevere and not overreact to the situation. If that wreck doesn’t happen, it’s likely a fantastic day. The key is to trust your process, but to also learn and make adjustments where necessary to keep improving. That’s exactly what I plan to do as we look forward to this Sunday’s race at Phoenix; learn from my roster allocations, and make a slight adjustment going forward, but otherwise not overreact to some bad luck.
LAS VEGAS PICKS RECAP
My Las Vegas picks cash game picks had a rough week, with only Jimmie Johnson making value. As mentioned, Edwards and Kenseth wrecked, and Brian Scott only accumulated 4.1x value, not moving as far forward as he could have (although 4.1x value isn’t bad from a punt play if it allows you to get 8x value from a dominator elsewhere).
Joey Logano and Austin Dillon were successful GPP picks, and while Paul Menard wasn’t inside the top 10 in average GPP score, he was in the winning lineup (along with Logano and Dillon). Going forward, I might change the criteria to a top 10 average GPP score or in the winning lineup. But I’ll count Menard as a miss so that it’s not revisionist history. Brian Vickers was the victim of a broken axle and Casey Mears struggled all day.
My fades only went 1-1-1 this week. Allmendinger avoided the carnage and made just enough value to be counted as a push. Brad Keselowski, as the race winner, obviously was a bad call by me. My only hit was Aric Almirola who put up -17 in place differential to come home with a measly three points.
Picks Year to Date
Cash Game Picks: 6-5-1 (54.2% – Target 60%)
Fades: 7-2-2 (72.8% – Target 60%)
GPP Picks: 4-10 (28.6% – Target 25%)