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FanDuel GPP Value Plays – Week 3

Each week I’ll explore cheap players whose FanDuel price does not match the ceiling they offer, making them GPP value plays. In FanDuel GPPs, I recommend cheap players who will offer at least 3x value, providing salary relief for your remaining roster spots.

In general, I will be looking at quarterbacks priced below $7,500, running backs and wide receivers below $6,500, and tight ends below $5,500. It is important to remember that these value recommendations are for GPPs (and not cash games), so we’re aiming for a hit rate above 20 percent.

Week 2 Review

  • In order to keep myself accountable, I will be keeping score of my past results. While 3x is the gold standard for reaching GPP value, each week is different – sometimes requiring a higher or lower average multiplier. My score each week is based on a formula that factors in the multiplier needed to reach the cash line in FanDuel’s Sunday Million contest and an adjustment that accounts for cheaper plays needing a higher multiplier to reach value.1
  •  Week 2 Results:2 Total = 3/7 (43%), QB = 1/1, RB = 2/2, WR = 0/3, TE = 0/1

I recommended both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen as GPP value plays. However, this article was posted prior to the news about Sam Bradford’s knee injury. While I will account for these misses in my results, if significant obstacles to a player’s success arise prior to game time but after this article posts (i.e. injury, notable weather, etc.), you should look at the “others considered” section as the next best value play.

  • Year-to-Date Results:3
    • Total = 6/14 (43%)
    • QB = 1/2
    • RB = 3/4
    • WR = 1/6
    • TE = 1/2

Week 3 GPP value plays

QUARTERBACKS

 Note: I don’t love the QBs below $7,500 this week. One of my top values is Kirk Cousins who unfortunately is $100 above this cut-off.

  • Andy Dalton ($6,800)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 20.4 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Bengals are a nine-point road underdog in Green Bay with an implied team total of 18.5. While huge road underdogs with a lower team total is not a great starting point, there a few factors working in Dalton’s favor.

Bill Lazor: The Bengals offense will likely look very different in Week 3 compared to the start of the season and should actually score a TD!

Rest: Coming off of a Thursday night game in Week 2, Lazor will have 10 days to prepare his team.

Banged Up Defense: The Packers’ defensive front was able to force a lot of pressure in Week 1 against Seattle’s woeful offensive line. While Cincinnati has their own offensive line troubles, the Packers are coming into this game with a lot of players on the injury report, including Mike Daniels and Nick Perry.

  • Others Considered: DeShone Kizer ($6,900) – Kizer’s running ability makes him a GPP threat.

Running Backs

  • Theo Riddick ($5,600)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 16.8 fantasy points.

Yes, I know what you’re going to say, “But Riddick is a pass-catching RB, and this is FanDuel.” FanDuel takes this into account in the pricing, and this is why Riddick is a good play.

Vegas: Detroit is a three-point home underdog against the Falcons in a 50.5 total with an implied team total of 23.75. As an underdog the past two seasons, Riddick has averaged 0.5 TDs per game, compared to just 0.1 TDs per game as a favorite or a pick ’em.

Screen Shot 2017-09-21 at 11.40.04 AM Matchup: Saying the Falcons have been susceptible to RBs is an understatement. In Week 1, Atlanta gave up 179 yards from scrimmage, 11 receptions, one rushing TD, and one receiving TD (35.4 fantasy points) to the Chicago Bears RBs. Tarik Cohen, who has a similar role to Riddick, accounted for 21.3 of those FanDuel points. In Week 2, Atlanta bled 110 yards from scrimmage, six receptions, and two TDs (26 fantasy points) to Ty Montgomery. Since 2015, Riddick has eight receiving TDs and is the player who gains the most from this matchup.

  • Tarik Cohen ($5,600)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 16.8 fantasy points.

Really, another pass-catching RB? Yes, even if Jordan Howard is active (he is dealing with a shoulder injury), I will be using Cohen as a GPP value play.

Vegas: The Bears are 7.5-point home underdogs against the Steelers in a 44-point total with an implied team total of 18.25.

Touches: Through his first two NFL games, Cohen averages six rushing attempts, 10.5 targets/game, and eight receptions per game. Cohen has a 24.7 percent target share. His snaps increased from 28 (42 percent) in Week 1 to 40 (62 percent) in Week 2. With Howard ailing, I expect that trend to continue.

Floor:  It is hard to imagine a scenario where Cohen doesn’t have at least five receptions (eight targets) and 50 yards from scrimmage (7.5 fantasy points). While GPPs are all about capturing a player’s ceiling, Cohen pretty much only needs to find the end zone in order to pay off his salary – more receptions and yards are a bonus.

  • Others Considered: Dalvin Cook ($6,500) – I would be much more confident in Cook if I knew Sam Bradford was healthy. But at just $6,500, Cook has a chance to smash his points per dollar value based on the number of touches he should see. If Bradford is out, I’m staying away from this offense. Derrick Henry ($6,400)  – Similar to Cook, Henry’s value depends on the health of a teammate. If DeMarco Murray is active, I am staying away from Henry. But if Murray is inactive, even against a tough Seattle defense, Henry is in play for me due to his TD upside.

Wide Receivers

  • Martavis Bryant ($6,500)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 19.5 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Steelers are a 7.5-point road favorite against Chicago in a 44 total with an implied team total of 25.75.

Outside of the Division: Similar to Ben Roethlisberger, Bryant’s production dips in road games. However, Bryant performs better in games outside of the division (in split).

Screen Shot 2017-09-21 at 4.56.05 PM

Of particular interest is the jump in TDs when playing against non-AFC North opponents.

Funnel Defense: The Bears are ranked 15th in DVOA against the run, but 26th against the pass.

  • Rashard Higgins ($5,100)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 15.3 fantasy points

Vegas: The Browns are a 1.5-point road favorite (yes, the Browns are a road favorite) in Indianapolis in a 41 total with a 21.25 implied team total.

Chemistry: Before becoming the full-time starter, Kizer likely developed chemistry with Higgins during second-team reps throughout the preseason. We saw this come to fruition in Week 2 after Corey Coleman left the game. Kizer targeted Higgins 11 times for seven receptions and 95 yards. If Kizer is going to lock in on him, Higgins can easily pay off his price.

Funnel Defense: The Colts are arguably the worst team in the NFL and may be turning into a funnel defense. They rank ninth in DVOA against the run, but 27th against the pass.

  • DeSean Jackson ($6,400)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 19.2 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Buccaneers are two-points away underdogs in Minnesota with a 41-point total and a 19.5 implied team total.

Matchup: While Mike Evans will have his hands full as he will likely be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes, Jackson will have the chance to run free against Trae Waynes, who has largely been a disappointment thus far in his career.

Targets: Jackson saw seven targets last week, despite being in an extremely positive game script nearly the entire game. Although Jackson was not able to come down with a deep ball, in games where Jackson has seen at least five targets in 2015-2016 (18 instances), he’s had 100 yards or a TD nine times.

  • Others Considered: DeVante Parker ($6,500) – Parker is facing the Jets who just gave up a three-TD game to Michael Crabtree. The biggest reason why Parker isn’t one of my top three GPP value plays is because he missed practice on Thursday, and Jay Ajayi could be the one to have a multi-TD game.

Tight Ends

  • Jared Cook ($5,200)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 15.6 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Raiders are 3.5-point away favorites against Washington in a 54 total with an implied team total of 28.75. Cook is a cheap way to get exposure to the highest total of the week.

Matchup: Using RACR, we see that Cook’s strengths matches up with Washington’s weakness:

Screen Shot 2017-09-21 at 1.39.53 PM

Screen Shot 2017-09-21 at 1.40.25 PM

Sunday Night Shoot-Out: Did I mention that this is the highest total on the week? The Raiders are also tied for the highest implied team total.

Contrarian: With most of the exposure to the Oakland passing attack likely falling on Amari Cooper and TD-machine Michael Crabtree, Cook is a way to gain leverage on the rest of the field.

  • Others Considered: Jack Doyle ($5,300) – In his first full game with Jacoby Brissett as the starting QB, Doyle had 8 receptions (8 targets) and 79 yards. He is now facing the Cleveland Browns who are a fertile ground for TE fantasy production.

Let me know which FanDuel GPP value plays you agree with, disagree with, or who I left out @Michael_Dubner

  1. value play success = (6667/Player’s Salary)^1/3 * multiplier  (back)
  2. Cash line for week 2 = 120.12 points, value success formula = (6667/Player’s Salary)^1/3 * 2  (back)
  3. Week 1 results have been updated based on the formula  (back)

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