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Week 3 Air Yards Buy Low Receivers

Each week I break out air yards data to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production.

This week I culled the list of buy low candidates based on some rest-of-season filters to scrape out the detritus we saw in the data last week. Week 1 is full of noise either way, so I wanted to cast a wide net. But now we have two games worth of data (in most cases) and we can start to draw some preliminary conclusions on players. The out of sample r-squared for this week’s model is 0.30. The stats listed in the table are per-game averages.

BUY LOW LIST 

Name Tar TD Rec Rec Yards YAC Air Yards aDOT RACR Pred Actual FP Diff
Donte Moncrief 6 0 1.5 34 2 101 16.8 0.34 9.3 4.9 -4.4
DeSean Jackson 7 0 3 39 3 135 19.3 0.29 10.7 6.9 -3.8
Marquise Goodwin 6 0 3 23.5 6 85 14.2 0.28 9.1 5.35 -3.7
Marqise Lee 8 0 3.5 38 11.5 98 12.3 0.39 10.2 7.3 -2.9
Torrey Smith 5.5 0 2.5 48 12.5 143 26.0 0.34 9.6 7.3 -2.3
Tyler Lockett 6 0 3.5 36 15.5 70.5 11.8 0.51 9.2 7.1 -2.1
Corey Davis 6.5 0 3.5 36.5 12 67 10.3 0.54 9.1 7.15 -2.0
Terrelle Pryor 7.5 0 4 48.5 23 90.5 12.1 0.54 10.1 8.85 -1.3
Kelvin Benjamin 6.5 0 3.5 51 10.5 82 12.6 0.62 9.6 8.6 -1.0
Martellus Bennett 8.5 0 4 45 29 55 6.5 0.82 9.5 8.5 -1.0
DeVante Parker 9 0 4 85 23 171 19.0 0.50 13.2 12.5 -0.7
Larry Fitzgerald 9.5 0 4.5 47.5 30.5 86.5 9.1 0.55 9.8 9.25 -0.6
T.Y. Hilton 6.5 0 3.5 53 14 74.5 11.5 0.71 9.4 8.8 -0.6
Zach Miller 7.5 0 5 40.5 13 44 5.9 0.92 9.4 9.05 -0.4
Brandin Cooks 5.5 0 2.5 62.5 13 96.5 17.5 0.65 9.0 8.75 -0.3
Pierre Garcon 7.5 0 4.5 53.5 26.5 62 8.3 0.86 10.0 9.85 -0.2

Notes

  • Donte Moncrief and T.Y. Hilton may have improved their outlooks with the addition of Jacoby Brissett, but not by much. With news that Andrew Luck is still multiple weeks away from starting, now might be the absolute lowest price you will have to pay for either player. It’s risky, but Hilton can be had for something like roughly 60 percent of his pre-season ADP.
  • DeSean Jackson saw 10.7 PPR points of volume but only produced 6.9 points. Better days are ahead for Jackson, but he continues to be a boom or bust receiver in Tampa Bay.
  • Goodwin, Lee, and Smith are all boom or bust plays that have received ample opportunity in the form of air yards. Smith’s aDOT is an otherworldly 26.0. Of the three, Lee is the best bet due to his higher target total, but Goodwin has a monster game in him and could explode any week.
  • DeVante Parker had a good week, saw nine targets and “Mossed” a defender. The narrative that Jay Cutler loves to throw deep and will target Parker early and often was correct – Cutler just targeted Jarvis Landry even more. Parker’s career RACR is 0.71. In this game he was 30 percent less efficient than normal. Regression to the mean should be expected, and he makes an excellent DFS play this week against a putrid Jets team.
  • Larry Fitzgerald is coming off a down game against a horrible Colts team. There have been cries that Carson Palmer is washed and that Fitzgerald is dust. While we don’t often go in for film analysis here at RotoViz, allow me to offer my observation that this narrative is probably nonsense. Palmer was sacked on the second play of the game, found himself down 10 points in the first quarter because the Cardinals’ defense and special teams were a sieve, and still completed 300 yards to a cohort that included players named Mohma and Niklas. The Cardinals may be bad, but there is nothing to suggest that Palmer has become non-functional and that Larry won’t continue to have games like Week 1 where he saw 13 targets and had 44 yards after the catch.

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