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Blake Bortles Is An Inexpensive Dynasty Buy

Blake Bortles just signed a three-year contract extension that makes him a sneaky dynasty buy this offseason.

Did you know that Bortles and Derek Carr have eerily similar production since entering the NFL in 2014?Blake Bortles Derek Carr ScreenerThe Jaguars announced on Saturday that Bortles was resigned to a three-year contract extension through the 2020 season. The contract is for $54 million and could be worth up to $66.5 million with incentives. It also includes $26.5 million in guaranteed money. Bortles’ new average salary of $18 million per year ranks 17th among all NFL QBs. Last summer the Oakland Raiders re-signed Carr to a five-year contract extension worth up to $125 million. His average salary $25 million per year ranks third. This contract was a savvy move by the Jaguars executive vice president of football operations Tom Coughlin and the front office.

CURRENT DYNASTY AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION

Our friends at TwoQBs have assembled ADP for 2QB dynasty formats. Despite finishing as the QB13 last season, you can see the role of uncertainty in his pre-contract ADP.

RankQuarterbackTeamADPStandard Deviation
1Rodgers, AaronGBP65
2Wentz, CarsonPHI82
3Wilson, RussellSEA81
4Watson, DeshaunHOU15.50.5
5Goff, JaredLAR255
6Newton, CamCAR258
7Luck, AndrewIND29.516.5
8Mariota, MarcusTEN323
9Prescott, DakDAL3212
10Brady, TomNEP38.58.5
11Garoppolo, JimmySFO38.56.5
12Ryan, MattATL49.58.5
13Cousins, KirkWAS49.52.5
14Stafford, MatthewDET524
15Winston, JameisTBB556
16Brees, DrewNOS58.513.5
17Carr, DerekOAK598
18Trubisky, MitchellCHI702
19Mahomes, PatrickKCC704
20Roethlisberger, BenPIT729
21Bortles, BlakeJAC758
22Rivers, PhilipLAC76.50.5
23Smith, AlexKC (WAS)773
24Keenum, CaseMIN79.54.5
25Taylor, TyrodBUF823

Bortles completed 58 percent of his pass attempts for 598 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions in the postseason. He also had 17 rushing attempts for 121 yards. Bortles displayed poise by leading two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter against the Steelers.

INJURIES TO JAGUARS WRs

Bortles put together a very productive season without having all of his WRs at his disposal. Allen Robinson tore his left ACL in the first quarter of Week 1 last season.

Allen Robinson Screener

Robinson’s phenomenal 2015 season resulted in a Pro Bowl selection, but a disappointing 2016 season and an ACL injury cloud his financial outlook. The Jaguars front office will likely use the franchise tag if the two sides are unable to come to terms on a multi-year contract. Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee also missed multiple games last season.

All of the WR injuries prompted the Jaguars coaching staff to lean on undrafted rookie Keelan Cole and fourth-round draft pick Dede Westbrook. These two WRs were Bortles’ primary receiving options the latter part of the season. Westbrook missed the first nine games of the season recovering from sports hernia surgery.

cole westbrook screener Bortles did not allow the injury situation of the Jaguars WRs to deter him from being productive.

BORTLES STATISTICAL BODY OF WORK

Bortles RV ScreenerBortles’ growth and development was a critical component of the Jaguars success last season. He played 19 games with a partially torn ligament in his right wrist that required surgery last month. He also set a career low in turnovers with 16 after averaging 21 his first three NFL seasons.1

Bortles AYA

The beauty of the contract for the Jaguars is that the team is not committed to Bortles beyond the next few seasons. It is structured in a way to prevent complacency and to allow him to keep progressing as an NFL quarterback. This bodes well for those who own Bortles in dynasty formats.

Don’t Overpay, But Bortles is a Buy

If Bortles continues to progress, this is the type of contract that will make the Jaguars front office look like geniuses. This contract provides the team more cap flexibility to address team needs. It’s critical that the Jacksonville receivers continue to develop. Bortles’ targets had a total of 26 dropped passes last season (fifth-highest in the league). The Jaguars now have an offensive identity, and Bortles will be in a great position to reward fantasy owners who look straight ahead as opposed to through the rearview mirror.

What was most useful for you? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out to me via Twitter @EricNMoody.

  1. The Jaguars willingness to lean on rookie Leonard Fournette and the running game also helped him. The team led the NFL with 33.1 rushing attempts and 141.2 rushing yards per game. This allowed the offense to leverage play-action passes and lean on their elite defense. Of course, losing volume to the running game could hurt his long term value.  (back)

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