revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

Courtland Sutton Will Be A Lot More Valuable A Year From Now

Courtland Sutton was drafted No. 40 overall by the Denver Broncos. Though Denver has two established wide receivers under contract for 2018, Sutton should step into a prominent role as early as 2019.

Tape watchers liked Sutton, as he consistently ranked near the top of the RotoViz Scouting Index. Plus, he has “phototypical” size for an NFL WR1. He earned a 39.3 percent share of SMU’s receiving yards at age 21 in 2016. But his age-22 season was not as dominant, probably knocking him out of Round 1.

We at RotoViz liked, but didn’t “like like” Sutton. D.J. Moore demolished him in the Final Four of our WR prospect bracket.

Courtland Sutton, Southern Methodist, 6-3, 218

Final Age: 22.2
Forty: 4.54
Vert: 35.5
Broad: 124
Cone: 6.57
Shuttle: 4.11

Raw and Market Share College Production


Sutton was SMU’s top receiver as a redshirt freshman in 2015 and again in 2016, posting dominant yardage and touchdown shares. But LSU transfer Trey Quinn usurped him in 2017, leading the team in receiving yards and touchdowns.

Advanced Statistics

Breakout AgePhenom IndexFS Market ShareFreak ScoreAmico ProjectionScout Rank

Sutton posted solid measurable athleticism, with a Freak Score just one point below Moore’s. His age-20 breakout provides only a hint of how productive Sutton was in 2015 and 2016. And while the sharp decline in 2017 is a concern,  the most likely explanation is that Quinn provided an easy outlet with opposing defenses focused on Sutton.

NFL Opportunity

Denver places near the middle of the pack in air yards available for 2018.


But WR duo Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders earned a whopping 57 percent of Denver’s air yards in 2017. Sanders turned 31 in March, while Thomas turns 31 this December. And both could be released next offseason with more than $10 million in cap savings. If Sutton proves himself worthy of a starting spot, he’ll likely push one of them out next season.

Fantasy Outlook

The Broncos have one of the most concentrated passing attacks in the league, with Sanders and Thomas leaving only crumbs for anyone else. As such, Sutton should remain undrafted in typical redraft leagues, and he’s at best a late-round dart throw in best ball.

In dynasty, though, he’s a reasonable target anywhere in the second round. It’ll be tough to draft him ahead of Moore or Calvin Ridley, but I’m happy taking him as the third WR off the board. No one will expect much production from him, so he’s quite likely to gain value heading into next offseason. In shallow-roster leagues like the FFPC, don’t bother, though. Unless he’s an unstoppable force in the preseason, Sutton needs an injury to Thomas or Sanders for a chance at fantasy relevance in 2018. Better to let him spend a year clogging someone else’s roster.

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

Week 10 Primetime Slate DFS Breakdown

Who are the best plays for the Week 10 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1 DSF Week 10 Primetime Slate DFS Week 10 Primetime Slate theory thoughts: The games on this slate might not have “shootout”

Read More

Week 11 Waiver Wire Advice: Top Targets At Each Position

Looking for Week 10 waiver wire advice for fantasy football? You’ve come to the right place. We’ll give you some of the top targets at each position so that when you submit a waiver claim, you do it with confidence. This article will run through the top players available in

Read More

High Staked: What Went Wrong

Veteran high stakes fantasy football player Monty Phan chronicles his season. I can officially say things didn’t work out this season like we’d hoped. For the first time since 2014, none of the FFPC high-stakes teams I run with three friends are likely to advance to the league playoffs or

Read More

Nick Chubb Almost Destroys Week 10 and Christian McCaffrey Actually Destroys Everyone Else’s Fantasy Teams: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 10

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform

Read More

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.