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NASCAR DFS Picks, Fades, Projections for Charlotte

NASCAR heads to its home base in Charlotte for the longest race of the year — the Coca Cola 600. As always, I’ll give you my NASCAR DFS picks, fades, and projections for this weekend’s race. Also, the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup Optimizer, Sim Scores, and Splits apps are updated for your NASCAR DFS needs.

For betting insights into the race, be sure to check out my piece at The Action Network. In that article, I’ll highlight my favorite NASCAR bets for Charlotte. Also, be sure to check out Matthew Freedman’s article on the top prop bets for Sunday’s race.

If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the large oval section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers, and remember to find any potential race dominators.

Let’s get to the NASCAR DFS picks and projections for Charlotte!

NASCAR DFS MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR Charlotte

The model projections assume that the driver finishes the race – hence why you don’t see any average finishing positions worse than about 32nd. The Pts column shows the average projected DraftKings points for races when the driver finishes the race.

Note: Ownership projections will be updated later today.

DriverStartFinishLLFLPtsSalOwn
Kyle Busch19.8171.834.2560.461110045.5%
Joey Logano26.4750.1616.8754.041000028.3%
Denny Hamlin38.1949.5222.8954.44920012.7%
Erik Jones49.8714.5914.4939.15820033.6%
Brad Keselowski59.2720.9411.9641.67980010.7%
Ryan Newman611.611.9413.7134.11790011.2%
Jamie McMurray712.771.495.2328.45760010.3%
Ryan Blaney88.842.6914.0552.11890011.6%
Aric Almirola914.991.435.6326.1985009.6%
Daniel Suarez1017.311.974.7422.2571009.2%
Kyle Larson119.4536.9332.5461.61060023.2%
Austin Dillon1214.711.172.4728.12770010.4%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1313.871.918.523473009.4%
Paul Menard1417.951.264.1324.4769009.2%
Martin Truex Jr158.7934.7927.3663.791070029.5%
Kurt Busch1611.1314.1411.0246.78830019.2%
Matt Kenseth1721.696.789.6324.1375006.6%
Chris Buescher1820.691.132.9922.4620010.1%
David Ragan1920.220.572.8724.13580012.8%
Ty Dillon2023.510.562.3618.29540010.9%
William Byron2116.280.711.733.46650012.6%
Chase Elliott2210.581.267.8149.05950017.8%
Jimmie Johnson2316.130.383.8636.75870013.8%
Bubba Wallace Jr2419.960.752.4629.49600013.3%
Ross Chastain2524.920.382.6520.5750003.9%
Kasey Kahne2619.070.792.8733.5670016.7%
Alex Bowman2719.321.535.3235.4800026.0%
Clint Bowyer2813.4911.787.251.56940027.6%
Michael McDowell2923.891.135.1628.09560025.5%
AJ Allmendinger3023.550.182.6828.29640015.1%
Matt DiBenedetto3126.40.551.7723.2257007.4%
Parker Kligerman3227.450.231.3621.8452007.2%
Corey Lajoie3328.570.230.9820.4251003.9%
Gray Gaulding3428.890.231.0220.7847002.6%
Landon Cassill3528.160.421.1423.3553006.8%
Timmy Hill3629.760.231.0121.0445001.3%
Jeffrey Earnhardt3729.670.231.0122.2246001.1%
BJ McLeod3829.90.231.2822.8948002.2%
Kevin Harvick399.1222.929.7685.361220044.0%
JJ Yeley4029.670.081.2425.3440027.2%

NASCAR DFS PICKS – CASH GAMES

Kevin Harvick ($12,200) — In the four 1.5-mile oval races this year, Harvick’s average finish is 1.3 and his driver rating is 142, where perfect is 150. That’s absolutely bananas! Harvick did not pass inspection and thus will start 39th on Sunday, making him an obvious cash game play. There is some merit to going underweight on him in GPPs given his price tag and potential for not dominating. But the floor and place differential potential offered make him a cash game lock.

Kyle Busch ($11,100) — Busch took advantage of Harvick’s misfortune with inspection and rocketed to the pole position for Sunday’s race. Busch has 16 top nine finishes at Charlotte out of his last 20 incident-free races at the track. Out of the last nine times Busch has started on the pole, he’s led at least 23 percent of the laps in eight of those starts.

Erik Jones ($8200) — A lot of people will disagree with me here and will pick Clint Bowyer in cash, and to be honest, I wouldn’t have a problem with that. Jones was one of my picks on the post-qualifying podcast, and that hasn’t changed after final practice. I prefer Jones in this spot, even in cash on DraftKings (disclaimer, on FanDuel it’s much harder to play Jones in cash due to the reduction in value of dominator points). Jones posted the fastest single, five-, 10-, and 15-consecutive lap speeds in the only post-qualifying practice session. He’s also led more laps at 1.5-mile ovals than drivers like Brad Keselowski this year. Jones starts 4th, so he’s certainly in position to be a potential dominator at a great price tag. With 400 laps scheduled, fastest laps and laps led are paramount, so I prefer the extra dominator candidate at a $1200 discount to Bowyer. It lets you be more flexible with the rest of your lineup as well.

NASCAR DFS PICKS – GPPS 

Joey Logano ($10,000)  — I can’t stress it enough, but at a 400-lap race, you want as many dominator points as you can, especially in GPPs. Logano is the second-most likely candidate to dominate given practice times and 1.5-mile performance this year. Logano posted the fifth-best 10- and 15-lap average and has the third-best driver rating at 1.5-mile tracks this year. The only drawback is he has not led a large number of laps this year at the 1.5 milers, but starting second gives him a nice pit stall advantage and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him out front at some point Sunday night.

Clint Bowyer ($9400) — Bowyer qualified a lowly 28th on Thursday, but has a much faster car than that for the race. Bowyer was ninth-fastest in Happy Hour over 10 consecutive laps and has the ninth-best driver rating at 1.5-mile tracks this year. He has top-10 potential easily from all the key stats, which would earn him at least 52 DraftKings points.

Kurt Busch ($8300) — The elder Busch has been superb at 1.5-mile tracks this year, posting the sixth-best driver rating and fourth-most laps led at NASCAR’s most common circuit length. He’ll start only 16th on Sunday, which means ample place differential potential. Busch only posted the 17th best 10-lap average, but he was eighth over 15 consecutive laps and second out of six very strong cars over 20 laps. He has a long run car, and should factor in at the end barring any major incidents.

Other drivers I like: Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Kasey Kahne, William Byron, Darrell Wallace Jr., A.J. Allmendinger, Michael McDowell, J.J. Yeley.

NASCAR DFS CHARLOTTE FADES

Matt Kenseth ($7500) — Kenseth is priced way too high for a car that is just uncompetitive right now. Further, he starts pretty far forward in 17th place. He was uncomfortable with the car in practice, not even making a 10-lap average because he had to keep bringing the car in for changes. Easy fade.

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