Connecting the Dots will focus on one key position and statistical area each week. After an exciting opening weekend, we dive deeper into running back opportunity.
RB opportunity focuses on carries and targets, but also snaps played and utilization on those snaps. Over the last two seasons, the top-30 RBs in PPR formats averaged 13.6 rushing attempts and 3.74 targets per game.1 The top 15 averaged 16 rushing attempts and 4.26 targets per game.
On opening weekend, the four highest-usage RBs included three usual suspects and one surprise.
The bad weather in Cleveland was a catalyst to provide James Conner more touches, but Le’Veon Bell has averaged 29 opportunities per game over his last 27 games. The workload is there for a Pittsburgh bell cow.
The opportunities for Todd Gurley (22.7) and Melvin Gordon‘s (23.4) are similar to what they have averaged per game over the last two seasons.
| Player Name | Team | Opp | Snaps | Snaps % | Util % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | PIT | CLE | 77 | 91.7 | 48.1 |
| Adrian Peterson | WAS | ARI | 42 | 53.2 | 69 |
| Melvin Gordon | LAC | KC | 62 | 75.6 | 45.2 |
| Todd Gurley | LAR | OAK | 59 | 93.7 | 42.4 |
Adrian Peterson is the only RB out of this group with lower utilization and that should continue with Chris Thompson will handling most of the passing downs for Washington.
Saquon Barkley Is An Instant Workhorse
Joe Mixon was the only member of this group to post positive numbers as a receiver (0.1 fantasy points over expected per attempt), but Saquon Barkley (0.38 ruFPOEPA) and Dion Lewis (0.29) both excelled in the passing game. Carlos Hyde continued his 2017 inefficiency in all areas, a discouraging trend with the competition he faces.
| Player Name | Team | Opp | Snaps | Snaps % | Util % | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | CIN | IND | 42 | 76.4 | 57.1 | 25.9 |
| Dion Lewis | TEN | MIA | 49 | 71 | 49 | 22 |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | JAX | 55 | 77.5 | 43.6 | 20.8 |
| Carlos Hyde | CLE | PIT | 47 | 52.8 | 51.1 | 13.5 |
Hyde will continue to share offensive snaps and receiving opportunities with Duke Johnson, while Nick Chubb waits in the wings. These usage numbers for Dion Lewis are an early warning sign for Derrick Henry owners. Henry continues to look overmatched as a professional any time he doesn’t face Kansas City in the playoffs.
Nobody Stops Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara continues to be ridiculously efficient. He averaged almost a point more than expected per carry.
It was promising to see Bears head coach Matt Nagy follow through on using Jordan Howard more in the passing game. Tarik Cohen only had nine opportunities in Week 1.
| Player Name | Team | Opp | Snaps | Snaps % | Util % | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | MIN | SF | 57 | 80.3 | 40.4 | 13.5 |
| Lamar Miller | HOU | NE | 57 | 77 | 38.6 | 11.9 |
| TJ Yeldon | JAX | NYG | 39 | 61.9 | 53.8 | 15.9 |
| Rex Burkhead | NE | HOU | 37 | 49.3 | 56.8 | 7.9 |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | TB | 52 | 81.2 | 38.5 | 43.1 |
| Jordan Howard | CHI | GB | 50 | 71.4 | 40 | 15.7 |
Kamara, Howard, Lamar Miller, and Dalvin Cook all played a high percentage of the offensive snaps. It is uncertain how severe Leonard Fournette‘s hamstring injury is, but T.J. Yeldon‘s usage suggests he will be in line for a large workload if needed.
Phillip Lindsay Among Biggest Surprises
The biggest surprise out of this group of RBs is the number of opportunities given to Phillip Lindsay. The Broncos appear to be operating as an RB by committee, but Lindsay immediately jumped Devontae Booker as the team’s No. 2 back.
| Player Name | Team | Opp | Snaps | Snaps % | Util % | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | CAR | 59 | 92.2 | 32.2 | 17.6 |
| Christian McCaffrey | CAR | DAL | 57 | 85.1 | 33.3 | 13.5 |
| Peyton Barber | TB | NO | 48 | 72.7 | 39.6 | 6.9 |
| Phillip Lindsay | DEN | SEA | 26 | 35.1 | 69.2 | 18.2 |
| David Johnson | ARI | WAS | 36 | 67.9 | 50 | 17.7 |
| Kenyan Drake | MIA | TEN | 46 | 74.2 | 39.1 | 9.6 |
It was very promising to see Christian McCaffrey dominate the offensive snaps and see 19 opportunities, but he only had three more carries than C.J. Anderson (7).
A Catch-Less Kareem Hunt
Kareem Hunt was held without a catch for only the second time in his career.2 He was hurt by game flow and big offensive and special teams heroics from teammate Tyreek Hill. Hunt averaged 20.9 opportunities per game last season and should bounce back against the Steelers.
| Player Name | Team | Opp | Snaps | Snaps % | Util % | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Wilkins | IND | CIN | 46 | 56.1 | 37 | 9.1 |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | LAC | 40 | 71.4 | 42.5 | 4.9 |
| Jamaal Williams | GB | CHI | 37 | 61.7 | 45.9 | 4.7 |
| Jalen Richard | OAK | LAR | 37 | 50 | 43.2 | 16.9 |
| Jay Ajayi | PHI | ATL | 29 | 40.3 | 51.7 | 20.2 |
| Royce Freeman | DEN | SEA | 29 | 39.2 | 51.7 | 7.1 |
Jay Ajayi is in a committee with Darren Sproles and Corey Clement. He only played 38 percent of the offensive snaps in 10 games with the Eagles last season. Philadelphia has given a lot of lip service to more involvement from Ajayi – and we did see that in the second half – but his opportunities will fluctuate based on game flow.
Kenneth Dixon Exploits the Blowout
| Player Name | Team | Opp | Snaps | Snaps % | Util % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | NE | HOU | 36 | 48 | 38.9 |
| Nyheim Hines | IND | CIN | 37 | 45.1 | 37.8 |
| Bilal Powell | NYJ | DET | 24 | 40 | 58.3 |
| Marshawn Lynch | OAK | LAR | 27 | 36.5 | 48.1 |
| Kenneth Dixon | BAL | BUF | 22 | 27.5 | 59.1 |
| Matt Breida | SF | MIN | 30 | 45.5 | 43.3 |
James White is shaping up to be a nice value in PPR formats. He was targeted nine times in Week 1 and played a reasonable percentage of the offensive snaps. He’s averaged 5.3 targets per game over the last two seasons.
Chris Thompson Doesn’t Need a Lot of Touches to Dominate
Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny earned similar opportunities against the Broncos, and the snaps were also fairly even. They will continue to cannibalize each other’s scoring in a low-value backfield.
| Player Name | Team | Opp | Snaps | Snaps % | Util % | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thompson | WAS | ARI | 33 | 41.8 | 36.4 | 24.8 |
| Chris Carson | SEA | DEN | 25 | 43.9 | 48 | 8.9 |
| Leonard Fournette | JAX | NYG | 21 | 33.3 | 57.1 | 8.5 |
| Rashaad Penny | SEA | DEN | 25 | 43.9 | 48 | 8.3 |
| Darren Sproles | PHI | ATL | 29 | 40.3 | 41.4 | 7.2 |
| Alfred Morris | SF | MIN | 34 | 51.5 | 35.3 | 1.8 |
Mostly Afterthoughts
Austin Ekeler set a new career high in total yards from scrimmage with 126 and finished with positive efficiency, including crazy reFPOEPA numbers (2.53). If Gordon were ever to miss an extended period of time, he could be a league winner.
| Player Name | Team | Position | Week | Opp | Snaps | Snaps % | Util % | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | ATL | RB | 1 | PHI | 36 | 51.4 | 30.6 | 11.5 |
| Theo Riddick | DET | RB | 1 | NYJ | 41 | 58.6 | 26.8 | 8.5 |
| Devonta Freeman | ATL | RB | 1 | PHI | 39 | 55.7 | 28.2 | 8 |
| Latavius Murray | MIN | RB | 1 | SF | 14 | 20 | 78.5 | 4.2 |
| Derrick Henry | TEN | RB | 1 | MIA | 20 | 29 | 55 | 4.1 |
| Duke Johnson | CLE | RB | 1 | PIT | 41 | 46.1 | 26.8 | 3.5 |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | RB | 1 | KC | 22 | 26.8 | 45.5 | 23.6 |
| Isaiah Crowell | NYJ | RB | 1 | DET | 24 | 40 | 41.7 | 22.2 |
| Javorius Allen | BAL | RB | 1 | BUF | 30 | 37.5 | 33.3 | 14.2 |
| LeSean McCoy | BUF | RB | 1 | BAL | 34 | 53.1 | 29.4 | 3.1 |
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