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3 Players You Should Stop Drafting at ADP

 

Being player agnostic is one of the best edges you can find in fantasy football in 2019 — don’t fall in love with a player, fall in love with his price. With the suite of RotoViz tools, finding this year’s most mispriced players is easier than ever.

We already looked at some players that we think are being drafted too low. On the flip side, we now bring you some players whose ADPs are being powered by some irrational exuberance.

Here are three players you should strongly consider passing on at their current price.

Leonard Fournette

Positional ADP: 13

RV Positional Rank: 19

Difference: 7

This is a pretty lofty ranking for a guy whose team went out of its way to void the guaranteed money in his rookie contract and then was put on blast by football czar Tom Coughlin, who called him “disrespectful and childish.”

There were even rumors that with his guaranteed money voided, the Jaguars might move on from Fournette this offseason.

That won’t happen, but drafters are still too optimistic about the former fourth-overall pick, who is somehow more expensive than guys like Aaron Jones and Marlon Mack, who are better pass catchers in better offenses, and in the case of Mack, running behind a much better offensive line.

Fournette was brutal last year. He limped his way to 439 total rushing yards on 133 attempts while once again battling injuries, leading to a 3.3 YPC that was tied for the third-worst among all RBs with at least 100 attempts last year. His -13.3 rushing points over expectation was the 11th-worst in the league, while he pitched in just 22 receptions.

There’s nothing to suggest this year will be any different, and he looks like one of 2019’s most mispriced players in the high-leverage rounds.

Adam Humphries

Positional ADP: 61

RotoViz Positional Rank: 68

Difference: 7

Humphries is coming off a WR24 season, making his current positional ADP look like a screaming value.

Drafters are rightly dinging him for his move to the Music City this offseason, but not enough according to our rankers. It would be difficult to overstate just how much value he loses by leaving Tampa Bay.

Titans WRs had:

  • 41% fewer targets than Tampa’s
  • 53% fewer yards
  • 42% fewer expected points
  • And 49% fewer points

Titans wideouts also scored just seven TDs compared to 24 for the Bucs. Humphries has virtually no shot at repeating his five TDs from last season in Tennessee.

That’s before even touching on the fact that WRs moving to new teams tend to flop. Humphries has no upside, and even his floor is questionable in such a low volume offense.

C.J. Anderson

Positional ADP: 62

RotoViz Positional Rank: 74

Difference: 12

Anderson parlayed his late-season Rams cameo into a new contract in Detroit, ostensibly replacing the outgoing LeGarrette Blount as the backup to Kerryon Johnson.

If Anderson is indeed effectively replacing Blount’s role, it’s not much to get excited about.

Anderson will probably be more efficient than Blount was last year, but it’s fair to question how much more. He goes from one of the best offensive lines in the league in the Rams to a bottom-third group in Detroit.

I think the 154 carries Blount received last year is Anderson’s ceiling in this offense. I’ve already talked about why Johnson needs to be a big part of your portfolio; he was one of the most efficient runners in the league last year, and the Lions would be remiss not to get him significantly more involved in 2019.

Our rankers see Anderson as more of a straight handcuff to Johnson than a stand-alone value. If you can get him at a handcuff price, go ahead, but don’t reach expecting a repeat of his late-season resurgence in LA.

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