revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

Will Fuller Is the Ultimate Best Ball Target, and He’s Available at a Discount

 

Consistency and upside are typically built into a player’s price during the draft, but other factors can sometimes lower the acquisition cost and turn a player into a value. Despite there being only a small sample size, Will Fuller has proven in the last two seasons that he’s a WR1 in games with Deshaun Watson. Even with the injury risks, he’s one of my favorite targets in best ball leagues.

What’s His Upside?

Since joining the league in 2016, Fuller has been a boom/bust player, which matched his prospect expectations. Using the Box Score Scout, his top sim scores were Brandin Cooks, Phillip Dorsett, and Paul Richardson.1 His first season production was somewhat indicative of that, as well. He finished with two top-12 performances, but only three total weeks with a top-36 finish. At his near free acquisition cost in best ball leagues that season, he likely outperformed expectations of drafters and provided a two-week bump in their team scores.

He missed time to start the 2017 season, but when he returned to a new QB, there was an instant connection with four straight top-24 finishes. Unfortunately, the loss of Watson in Week 8 represented the end of Fuller’s fantasy value.

When he started the season in 2018, they returned to form with back-to-back top-12 weeks, however, he dipped slightly during a four week stretch that only saw him finish in the top-36 twice. And in his final game before suffering a season-ending ACL injury, Fuller, once again produced a top-12 week.

In total, Fuller has 8 top-12 finishes in his 31 games, seven weeks with at least 20 PPR points, and 14 weeks with double-digit PPR scoring weeks; but as you’d expect for a receiver who has received targets from Watson, Taylor HeinickeBrock OsweilerTom Savage, and T.J. Yates, there are noticeable splits in games featuring Watson.

His 16 game PPR total of 276 points would have ranked as the WR10 in 2018. Somewhat more impressive is the increased consistency in his usability when Watson is his QB.

Career FinishesTop 5Top 12Top 24Top 36
18912
3%26%29%39%
Finishes with WatsonTop 5Top 12Top 24T0p 36
1679
9%55%64%82%

If both Watson and Fuller stay healthy for a full season, there’s a high likelihood that Fuller finishes as a WR2 with a WR1 weekly ceiling. And even with the news that Will Fuller is expected to be available for Week 1, his price is heavily reduced.

Average Draft Position

Despite producing as a high-end WR2 in games with Watson, their combined injuries have built in some value in Fuller’s draft position. And it’s relatively flat across each of the bestball platforms. He’s being drafted as the WR33 on Fanball, WR31 on Fantrax, and WR32 on FFPC.

Being drafted behind the likes of Corey Davis and Robby Anderson makes it evident that his injury risk and lower weekly floor have depressed his acquisition cost. But at a WR3 cost, his risk can be alleviated by roster construction. For those more risk-averse, he could be the fourth option on a WR-heavy start with an expectation that he’s only going to be usable for 50% of weeks. And for those starting with a Hyper-Fragile approach, Fuller’s weekly ceiling represents a strong option as a roster’s WR2.

NFL subscribers, the time to get into PGA DFS is now! For a limited time, upgrade your subscription by adding a 2019 Rest of Season PGA subscription at a $10 discount. Click here for details!

  1. I limited his top scores to only include players that were already in the league at the time of his arrival.  (back)

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

Week 7 Waiver Wire Advice: Top Targets At Each Position

Looking for Week 7 waiver wire advice for fantasy football? You’ve come to the right place. We’ll give you some of the top targets at each position so that when you submit a waiver claim, you do it with confidence. This article will run through the top players available in

Read More

High Staked: Notes from Week 6

Veteran high stakes fantasy football player Monty Phan chronicles his season. I’m taking the easy way out this week: notes from a full Sunday of NFL football, which, for me, started at around 8 a.m., because 6:30 a.m. is way too early to get up on a Sunday:1 To how

Read More

Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 7

Waiver Wire Dumpster Dives takes you beyond the obvious plays and helps you find undervalued gems for deep leagues. Bye weeks are creeping up and as that happens weekly fill-ins are becoming more and more important.  With high fantasy capital teams like the Panthers, Browns, Steelers and Buccaneers all on

Read More

Wide Receiver Target Report: Week 6

Week 6 saw the 2019 Stefon Diggs coming out party, as the Vikings wide receiver torched the Eagles secondary to the tune of seven receptions, 167 yards, and three touchdowns. The 43.5 PPR points he scored on Sunday more than doubled his entire 2019 production. Tyreek Hill also made his

Read More
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.