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Dollars Per Opportunity: Betting On Positive Regression

Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our GLSP projections to find the best DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a focus on Yahoo! DFS.

Congratulations if you came out of the Week 2 injury barrage unscathed. Weeks like that are always brutal not only from a fantasy perspective but for the overall enjoyment of the game as well. We’re marching forward on to Week 3.

With two weeks of data under our belts, we want to begin identifying players who are underperforming compared to their expected value. This is beneficial for a couple of obvious reasons. These players are already seeing a lot of opportunity,1 but you should also get the added bonus of lower ownership due to their perceived struggles. We should expect to see positive regression and when you couple that with low ownership you have a sweet combination for DFS winnings.

Let’s get to the plays!

Get $25 FREE at Yahoo! DFS with your first deposit using promo code “VIZ25”!

QUARTERBACK

Kyler Murray | 16.1 Opp Score | $25

Shawn Siegele already explained in great detail why Kyler Murray is a great buy-low candidate who is ready to explode in season-long leagues. Rather than re-hash all the details, I’ll keep it high level and point out the following chart from our Stat Explorer tool:

Notice that Murray has ranked first in expected points per game, but 35th in FPOE (fantasy points over expectation) per game. That’s positive regression to a “T.”

RUNNING BACK

Ezekiel Elliott | 24.8 Opp Score | $33

Yeah, yeah, yeah I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know. Ezekiel Elliott is in an absolute smash spot at home against a non-existent Dolphins defense and you get him $7 cheaper than Christian McCaffrey and $3 cheaper than Saquon Barkley. There will be a temptation to find better plays as there’s a likely scenario where Elliott doesn’t play the entire fourth quarter here, but there’s no reason to get cute. Take your guaranteed 100-plus total yards with a great shot at one or more touchdowns.

Kerryon Johnson | 22.5 Opp Score | $18

The release of C.J. Anderson should give Kerryon Johnson a safer floor while also adding a higher ceiling and he’s one of the few running backs who really pops on the GLSP projections. His opportunity score ranks eighth among all running backs, but he’s priced as the RB22. You generally want to avoid road underdogs at the running back position,2 but Johnson is involved enough in the passing game and should remain a part of the game plan no matter the game situation.

WIDE RECEIVER

Keenan Allen | 22.6 Opp Score | $30

For only 15% of your budget, you can lock in Keenan Allen and his great opportunity numbers and efficiency that is bound to bounce back to regular levels. Much like Murray above, Allen has posted the second-highest expected points per game but ranks just 64th in FPOE per game. His chart from the Stat Explorer shows just how dominant he has been over the first two weeks.

Kenny Golladay | 24.0 Opp Score | $20

Kenny Golladay gets a prime matchup against an Eagles defense that has really struggled vs. wide receivers in recent memory.

Golladay currently ranks third overall with 295 air yards and has a 27% target share so he has solidified himself as an elite receiving option and you’re still getting him at a massive discount — he’s priced as the WR19.

D.J. Moore/Curtis Samuel | 12.5/17.5 Opp Score | $17/$17

The Panthers are likely to be without Cam Newton this week, but that may not necessarily be a bad thing for the passing game. He has yet to throw a touchdown and has completed just 56% of his passes through two weeks, including a paltry 49% completion rate last week. It can’t get much worse for the Panthers passing game and I can’t think of a better “get right” situation for both D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel than a matchup against the fast-paced Cardinals team that is still missing its top two cornerbacks. They’ll both come with very low ownership in GPPs.

TIGHT END

Zach Ertz | 9.1 Opp Score | $13

With Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson out, it’s Zach Ertz’s time to shine. He hasn’t yet put up a monster stat line, but the opportunity has been there — especially last week when all the injuries hit. It’s the theme of the week — players who are vastly under performing expectations — and Ertz is easily one of the biggest culprits.

Lineup Optimizer

Locking in a Murray, Elliott, Golladay, Samuel, and Ertz core here’s what our DFS Optimizer spit out as a lineup for Week 3:

 

Good luck to you in Week 3!

Image Credit: Gavin Baker/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Zach Ertz.

  1. hint hint, the whole point of this article  (back)
  2. The Lions are +7 at the Eagles  (back)

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