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FanDuel NFL Cash Plays – Week 2

Now that football is back full steam, The Fantasy Football Ghost will share with you his Week 2 FanDuel Cash plays

Welcome to the 2019 NFL season! It feels like it has been, well, months since I last wrote a daily fantasy article. This season I’m swapping back over to the FanDuel side of the daily world for this season as I work to bring our readers some great values for cash games. These values can come in many forms. One of my favorites is a player who I’m projecting to score a significant amount of points, but who is also priced highly, essentially a player who is a value in terms of the point production. Another type of value is a player who is underpriced in terms of the amount of points I expect him to produce, basically a player who is a great value in respect to points per dollar. Finally, there are players who are priced low, but whose price is within the range of expected point production which can allow us to “spend up” for bigger name players elsewhere on our roster who are projected to make up any difference in production we may miss out on by drafting the value player.

In order to measure the success of the players I recommend to our RotoViz readers, I will review the players I recommended the prior week, determining their value multiplier. I will then obtain the average multiplier across the recommended players to give me a barometer of success for that week. My stated goal is to produce an average greater than 2.5-times value. If I can manage to surpass that goal, the week will be considered a success, if I fall short of that goal, obviously, the week would be considered unsuccessful.

Another quick reminder, much of the data presented in this piece can be found in RotoViz’ NFL Stat Explorer, Game Level Similarity Projections, and NFL Projections Machine.

We also want to encourage out readers to check out the RotoViz NFL Lineup Optimizer so everyone can squeeze the most value out of their lineups each week

QUARTERBACKS

Tom Brady – $7,800

I can’t think of a better value than Brady on this week’s slate. As you may have heard, his opponent, Miami, surrendered a jaw-dropping 59 points to Baltimore last week, which resulted in Lamar Jackson leading all quarterbacks in scoring with 33.56 FanDuel points. The Dolphins defense allowed 378 passing yards, tied for the third-most thus far. Meanwhile, Brady threw for 366 yards last week, the seventh-most passing yards in the league. Now, passing yards isn’t always the best statistic to point to as one or two long plays could negatively skew the result.

However, that isn’t the case here. Miami’s defense was simply horrible all around, allowing a perfect QB rating of 158.3 last week, tying them for the worst QB Rating allowed. Brady posted a QB Rating of 127.4, the seventh-best last week. The Dolphins surrendered the league’s highest average depth of target (aDOT) last week while offensively New England posted a tie for the sixth-deepest aDOT. Additionally, Miami was heavily exploited by deep passes, giving up the league’s worst RACR with a 0.45 mark. The Patriots, on the other hand, had the league’s third-best RACR at 0.59. New England also gets Antonio Brown on the field this week, the league’s fourth-best RACR for all receivers over 100 receptions last season. For Brady to hit 2.5-times value, all he needs to do is hit 19.5 points, a mark he may well pass by halftime given all the signs pointing to a big game.

RUNNING BACKS

Alvin Kamara – $8,700

You’ll have to pay up to get Kamara on your roster as he’s the second-highest priced running back this week but Christian McCaffrey proved that the Rams defense is exploitable via the rush. McCaffrey posted the week’s best performance by a running back last week while Kamara held his own as a top-10 option as well. Los Angeles has allowed the fourth-most broken tackles thus far in the young season, while New Orleans has already broken the third-most tackles, with Kamara accounting for just one less than the entire Carolina team last week. According to the NFL Stat Explorer, over the past five games, the Rams have presented a tempting target for opposing running backs as they are the best defense to play in terms of fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) and the third-best defense to play in terms of points per reception rank (PPR Rk). This mix of bad tackling, great tackle-breaking ability, and an incredible FPOE rank makes for one of the best running back matchups of the week.

Rams Versus Running Backs

WIDE RECEIVERS

John Brown – $6,300

I honestly don’t think I’ve played John Brown in cash lineups more than a handful of times in my entire DFS career, never mind playing him as a primary option on any given week. But this is a new season so what better chance to try something new. The temptation to play Brown stems from the fact that he is the clear and undisputed primary receiver in Buffalo as we saw last week when he hauled in seven receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown. This accounted for just under 50% of all wide receiver receptions and 68% of all receiving yards by the position. This performance elevated him to the position of FanDuel’s tenth-top scoring wide receiver last week.

Brown and the Bills now face off against a Giants defense that surrendered 405 receiving yards last week, the most yards allowed in the entire league. New York’s cornerbacks, DeAndre Baker, Grant Haley, Antonio Hamilton, and Corey Ballentine collectively allowed all 14 targets thrown in their direction to be completed. Over the past five games, the Giants’ defense are the seventh-most targeted defense, the fifth-most receptions completed against, have allowed the second-most receiving yards, have allowed the most yards per reception, the most yards after the catch yards allowed, and the second-worst RACR rank. You’re drooling, I sense it, wipe it off and immediately add Brown to your line ups.

Giants Versus Wide Receivers

TIGHT ENDS

Mark Andrews – $6,100

Andrews is in quite the precipitous position, he’s fresh off FanDuel’s third-best tight end last week, and he’s now facing the team that allowed the second-best tight end performance last week. Andrews’ opponent, Arizona, allowed the second-most air yards to the tight end position of all teams in the NFL while Andrews’ collected the fourth-most air yards of all tight ends. The Cardinals also allowed the fourth-most targets to tight ends last week while Andrews garnered a team-high eight targets, roughly a third of all of Baltimore’s pass targets. By the way, Andrews hauled in all eight targets. That’s incredibly impressive by any standard, however, the Cardinals allowed 14 targets to the position last week, with 11 of those passes completed, presenting lots of statistical growth for Andrews game-over-game.

 

As I have expressed in prior seasons, identifying and exploiting value plays are going to be so important to walking away a winner in Fanduel’s NFL cash games. In this week’s piece we’ve been able to identify players who are affordable and others that owners can build around and anchor any lineup with. As always, good luck to everyone, and feel free to both reach out to me and follow me on Twitter at @TheFFGhost. I’ll do my best to answer any and all questions you may have!

Image Credit: Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Alvin Kamara.

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