Welcome to another edition of the 2019 Confident Cash Plays Series!
Hopefully you loaded up on the high point total WR duos last week! If you did, I’m sure Devonta Smith worked out for you okay with 274 yards and five touchdowns! Let’s see if we can find some other solid plays this week.
If you like GPP contests, Ryan Collinsworth has a piece for you every week as well! But for now, let’s dive into this week’s Confident Cash Plays.
|Quarterback||Week 6 Price||Avg Points Per Game||Pass Comp + Rush Att Per Game||Implied Team Points||Opponent Pass Yds Allowed/Game||Expected Points|
Believe it or not, it may still be a good idea to play Jalen Hurts this week.
“*Shocked Face*” – You
Yes, his price is $9,300 — the most expensive on the board — but he’s averaging more than double the points of most above-average QBs, and Oklahoma is projected to score over 50 points. If you fade Hurts in cash, that may eliminate your lineup from contention immediately. The matchup isn’t perfect, and Hurts might call it a day in the third quarter, but he’s as safe as it gets..
Joe Burrow is coming off a six-TD performance against Vanderbilt. He’s averaging over four TDs and nearly 400 yards per game through the air. The only worry is that Terrace Marshall Jr. is out and Justin Jefferson is likely not 100% (both WRs for LSU). Burrow will have to rely heavily on Ja’Marr Chase and a handful of inexperienced targets to succeed against Utah State. The good news is that Utah State is horrible against the pass.
Sam Ehlinger has destroyed virtually every defense he’s faced and is averaging more than 36 combined opportunities per game. Despite the toughest matchup through the air among all top QBs, Ehlinger’s running ability keeps his floor and ceiling high. Pairing him with Devin Duvernay is possibly the most deadly QB-WR duo available this week.
The Other Guys
There are more “other guys” than usual this week because there are so many juicy matchups and great offenses on this slate.
Sean Clifford draws a Purdue team that’s missing their starting QB Elijah Sindelar and star WR Rondale Moore (best playmaker in the entire country). Purdue will struggle to stay on the field the entire game. That might mean Penn State runs the ball a ton, but Clifford does that too. He faces the second-softest pass defense on the slate and is only $7,100. Pairing him with KJ Hamler or Pat Freiermuth will be a popular move this weekend.
Spencer Sanders has scampered for over 50 rushing yards in every game this season. That’s a nice five-point head start you can count on. Plus he gets to face a Texas Tech team led by backup quarterback Jett Duffey. The Red Raiders will likely struggle to maintain drives. Sanders doesn’t have a great defensive matchup through the air, but at $1000 cheaper than the elite three, he’s worth a look to pair with Tylan Wallace.
Steven Montez could very well be the best GPP and Cash quarterback on the entire slate this week. Not only does he face an Arizona team allowing nearly 340 yards through the air each week, but he also has three solid receivers averaging at least 4.5 catches per game. Montez has solid weapons, an unbelievable matchup, and a high point total.
And lastly, it’s not too often that starting any Minnesota quarterback makes sense (especially in the NFL recently). However, Tanner Morgan and his pair of future NFL receivers deserve to be all over lineups this weekend. They face off with a hilariously bad Illinois defense this week, should score around 40 points, and Morgan only costs $6,500. He’s the best QB cheat code on the slate this week.
Priority: (1) Hurts, (2) Ehlinger, (3) Burrow, (4) Montez, (5) Morgan, (6) Sanders, (7) Clifford
|Running Back||Week 6 Price||Avg Points Per Game||Touches Per Game||Implied Team Points||Opponent Pass Yds Allowed/Game||Expected Points|
First off, before we dive in, the RBs are absolutely disgusting this week. The receiver pool will be a bit larger because of it. There won’t be many three-RB lineups with upside to match the four receiver lineups on this slate. But! With that said…
When building lineups it’s going to feel like Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma State) or bust. He costs $8,900, but he’s already logged two 200-yard games and now faces a team allowing 180 yards per game. This looks like a pretty chalky matchup. The problem will be affording two elite quarterbacks with Hubbard as well. It’s nearly impossible to do without hating half of your lineup. The price is the only issue here as Hubbard is another 25 points (easy) waiting to happen on paper.
If you can’t afford Hubbard ,then AJ Dillon ($7,900, Boston College) is a nice consolation prize. His 25.6 touches per game is the second-highest on the slate (behind only Hubbard). Boston College isn’t projected to score a ton of points, but when they do it’s often on the ground. Dillon is always going to be pricey, but he consistently boasts incredible upside given his locked-in feature-back workload.
Keaontay Ingram is almost priced out at $6,800, but Texas is facing a 70th-percentile matchup on the ground and offers a safe floor given the Longhorns’ implied point total. Don’t overexpose yourself to Ingram, but make sure he’s on a roster or two if you’re diversifying at all.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,100, LSU) is essentially always going to be in position to score a TD. LSU flies down the field through the air these days, but Edwards-Helaire still sees 15 touches with a few near the end zone every week. His price continues to hover around $6,000 despite averaging nearly 20 points per week on an offense that should consistently score around 50 points. It makes zero sense. Enjoy the free points and lineup flexibility.
Rodney Smith hasn’t scored a ton of points this season but always gets a boatload of touches. Mohamed Ibrahim may join him again in the backfield this weekend, but Smith saw over 20 carries in both games when Ibrahim was healthy to start the season. Given his large touch volume, Smith could easily score a couple TDs against a weak Illinois defense that should surrender nearly 40 points. Smith is essentially the safest floor play on the board for his price.
Alex Fontenot is another less-than-sexy back like Smith, but sees nearly 20 touches per game. At $6,000 he’s an easy play for cash that should be the first pivot off of Edwards-Helaire if you absolutely need an extra $100.
Javian Hawkins was the best value on the board a couple weeks back at $4,400, but just missed a TD to cap off his value. Now at $5,000, Hawkins is yet again the most absurd value on the board. The only worry is Louisville’s QB play. Two of three top Cardinals QBs are struggling with injuries. As a result, Louisville may more heavily lean on Hawkins against a soft Boston College rush defense. Plug him in as much as possible.
Reggie Corbin almost misses the cut on game script alone, but he has been dominant this season and has posted over 100 yards twice already. He’s the secondary pivot off of Edwards-Helaire if you need $300 of breathing room. Corbin averages the same number of touches, but just plays in a lower scoring offense.
Gerold Bright ($5,200, Utah State) faces a challenging LSU defense but is coming off a 36-touch performance. That kind of potential volume at $5,200 is just not fair.
Last, and probably least, we have JaMycal Hasty for Baylor. He’s been inefficient all year, but is in an even timeshare with great opportunity this week. Kansas State is allowing nearly 200 yards per game on the ground. If Hasty sees a small uptick in carries given the matchup, he should easily eclipse value on his $4,300 price.
Priority: (1) Hubbard, (2) Edwards-Helaire, (3) Hawkins, (4) Smith, (5) Fontenot, (6) Dillon
|Wide Receiver||Week 6 Price||Avg Points Per Game||Touches Per Game||Implied Team Points||Opponent Rec Yds Allowed/Game||Expected Points|
LSU and Oklahoma are both projected to score around 50 points. If that comes to fruition, given their high flying aerial attacks, some receivers are going to go off.
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,000, LSU) is averaging over 30 points per game and is coming off a four-TD performance. He will now be the clear lead option with Justin Jefferson recovering from ankle injury (could play) and Terrace Marshall out (stress fracture surgery). If he isn’t in your lineup, then you simply don’t want to win. The replacement producers will likely be Stephen Sullivan and Racey McMath (both around $4,000).
CeeDee Lamb ($8,000, Oklahoma) is the most expensive receiver on the board, but paired with Hurts they could combine for 70 points in a perfect storm. Lamb just scored three TDs last week and has found the end zone in all four games this season. Charleston Rambo (Oklahoma) leads all NCAA receivers in yards per reception (28.7). His floor is disgusting, but two catches could result in a value play at $6600.
Jadon Haselwood ($4,800, Oklahoma) is the sneaky, possibly slate-breaking play this week. He caught six passes a week ago and was on the field for essentially every snap after the first drive of the game. Oklahoma should score 50. A half dozen catches and a couple scores is firmly within his range of expected outcomes.
Given that Laviska Shenault (lead Colorado WR) is a game-time decision, both Colorado receivers are automatically a value. Tony Brown ($5,700) and K.D. Nixon ($5,500) are both averaging around five catches per game and now face Arizona (allowing 337 passing yards per game). If Shenault is out, the receiving target market share up for grabs is fantastic for both. They’re likely still a value even if Shenault plays.
Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman are both averaging more than 20 points and five receptions per game for Minnesota. Both are still somehow below $7,000 in a game where Minnesota should score 40.
KJ Hamler ($6,000) and Pat Freiermuth ($4,400) are both appropriately priced and face a crippled Purdue team giving up nearly 300 passing yards per game. With Penn State implied to score over 40 points, both Nittany Lions receivers could be a slam dunk.
Tylan Wallace is averaging nearly 27 points per game but is still $7,300. He can easily pair with Sanders at QB for a huge stack. He isn’t seeing a huge reception total per game, but his big play ability has buoyed his elite production.
Devin Duvernay is the absolute near-“must play” receiver of the slate this week. He’s seeing more than 10 receptions per game and draws a decent matchup. Texas is projected to score nearly 40 points. Usually players with his floor are an easy $8,000. Not this week.
Sam James ($5,200) is seeing more than seven receptions per game, but he just hasn’t found the end zone enough for West Virginia. Texas has a soft pass defense, and James should be the focal point of the Mountaineers’ plan to keep the chains moving. Plug him in everywhere.
Lastly, Tayvian Cunningham ($3,000, Arizona) is the auto-play for minimum priced options. He’s grabbed at least three receptions in every game and draws an easy opponent through the air in Colorado.
Priority: (1) Chase, (2) Duvernay, (3) Haselwood, (4) James, (5) Lamb, (6) Johnson, (7) Bateman, (8) Cunningham
And that’s all folks! Hope your teams kill it in the main slate of Week 6 College Football! Make sure to check out Devy Weekly to learn more about breakout studs every single week of the season. Please find me on Twitter @FF_TravisM to chat more about all things college football and NFL! And as always, keep living that Dynasty Life!