Who are the best plays for the Week 6 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1
DSF Week 6 Primetime Slate
|Home||Away||Spread||Favorite Implied||Underdog Implied||Vegas Total|
|Los Angeles Chargers||Pittsburgh Steelers||LAC -7||24.25||17.25||41.5|
|Green Bay Packers||Detroit Lions||GB -4||25.5||21.5||47|
DFS Week 6 Primetime Slate theory thoughts:
- Both games on this slate are interesting — PIT-LAC and DET-GB — but all of the matchups from a fantasy perspective are subpar. You won’t build a lineup that you love. On weeks like this, I like to go heavier on tournaments.
- The QB position is interesting this week because there are three viable options to choose from between Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and Matthew Stafford. On these short slates, you’re lucky to get two viable options. This should divide ownership and make it easier to create unique lineups.
- Getting the Chargers RB situation right could make or break your lineup on this slate. Do you continue to jam in Austin Ekeler, or do you think that Melvin Gordon has knocked off the rust?
Chalk: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
DK – QB1; FD – QB2
I’m not positive which QB will draw the most ownership, but my guess would be Rodgers, as the Packers have the highest implied team total on the slate and are home favorites in the game that also has a much higher Vegas total. Rodgers has been mostly pedestrian this season, ranking as the QB19 in points. However, he ranks as the QB8 in expected points per game, so it’s fair to expect some positive regression soon. It could come in Week 6 against the Lions, who have given up top-12 performances to QBs in back-to-back games. Detroit has also given up top-three expected point performances to QBs twice in four games.
Contrarian: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
DK – QB3; FD – QB3
Stafford has been exceeding expectations, as the Detroit QB ranks as QB7 on the year despite being just QB22 in expected points. The Packers D is much improved, but they have ceded top-10 expected point performances to QBs in three of five contests this year.
Chalk: James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers
DK – RB4; FD – RB5
Conner is a screaming value on both sites and became even more valuable once word broke that Jaylen Samuels would miss the contest. Conner checks none of the conventional boxes — he’s a big road underdog and his QB situation is terrible — but he’s extremely cheap and will easily get 15 touches, with 20 within his reach. He’s also utilized in the passing game; he ranks top-15 among RBs in expected fantasy points added through the air.
Honorable mention: Kerry Johnson is also worth the chalk on this slate.
Contrarian: Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers
DK – RB7; FD – RB6
No Williams in Week 5 meant we got to witness the beauty of #FreeAaronJones, but Williams will be back in the fold in Week 6, and it’s reasonable to expect Williams to command his usual 8-12 touches — including 2-4 receptions — in this contest. The Lions have coughed up top-12 fantasy performances to RBs in three straight games, and at least one RB has topped 40 receiving yards in four straight contests against Detroit. The Lions have given up the third-most receiving yards to opposing RBs so far this season.
Williams will be low-owned and will be a high leverage play against Jones (who will be extremely high-owned — and rightfully so). Aaron Jones is obviously the better Green Bay RB, but I like Williams as a sneaky tournament play.
Chalk: Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
DK – WR2; FD – WR2
With Davante Adams injured, Allen becomes the clear-cut top WR option on the slate. He’s had back-to-back down weeks (with lines of 5-48-0 and 4-18-0), which I suppose may keep some people from clicking his name, but sharp players won’t shy away. Allen is still No. 2 in expected points among WRs2 leading into Week 6, and his 54 targets rank third at the position.3
Contrarian: Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
DK – WR9; FD – WR5
Williams is über cheap, and he’s coming off a game in which he saw 13 targets despite getting injured early in the contest — after already entering the game questionable. Williams has seen his target count increase each game this season — 3, 5, 7, 8 — and he faces a Steelers defense that, despite being stingy against WRs overall the last three weeks, has given up solid games to big WRs, including D.K. Metcalf (3-61-1) and Josh Gordon (3-73-1). Williams is also a great leverage play off of Allen or the Chargers RBs.
|Week||EP||Tgt||Rec||RecYd||RecTD||Air Yards||Tgt MktShr|
Contrarian: Geronimo Allison, Green Bay Packers
DK – WR7; FD – WR8
Allison didn’t produce in Week 5 — just two catches for 28 scoreless yards — but keep in mind that Aaron Jones was stomping the Cowboys all game, and GB had a sizable lead by halftime. There simply wasn’t a need for the Packers to throw much. But when they did throw, the ball often went Allison’s way. He led all Packers WRs/TEs with six targets last week; that was as many as Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4) and Jake Kumerow (2) had combined.
Chalk: Jimmy Graham, Green Bay Packers
DK – TE1; FD – TE1
Over the last two games, since Green Bay said they wanted to get him more involved in the offense two games ago, Graham ranks third on the team in targets (12), receptions (9), yards (102), and is one of only two players (Allison the other) to catch a TD. Detroit has been good against TEs — holding Zach Ertz to a 4-64-0 line and Travis Kelce to a 7-85-0 line in back-to-back weeks — but with extremely limited options on this Week 6 DFS primetime short slate, Graham stands out as the best bet based on volume.
Contrarian: Vance McDonald, Pittsburgh Steelers
DK – TE2; FD – TE4
A potential goose-egg awaits McDonald with Devlin Hodges at QB, but nobody will click his name because of it. The TE choices on this slate are disgusting, and your best bet is to either pay for Graham or completely punt the position. McDonald is my contrarian option in the middle.
Image Credit: Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers.
- An important note: I’m writing this column with tournaments and GPPs top of mind. Cash game plays on short slates are usually easier to figure out because the options are so thin; tournaments require quite a bit of game theory, which can be half the fun. (back)
- Behind Cooper Kupp. (back)
- Behind Kupp and Michael Thomas. (back)