Who are the best plays for the Week 7 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1
DSF Week 7 Primetime Slate
|Home||Away||Spread||Favorite Implied||Underdog Implied||Vegas Total|
|Dallas Cowboys||Philadelphia Eagles||DAL -3.5||25.25||21.75||47|
|New York Jets||New England Patriots||NE -9.5||26.75||17.25||44|
DFS Week 7 Primetime Slate theory thoughts:
- All of the QB options on this slate are interesting in their own right, but most ownership will gravitate toward Dak Prescott and Tom Brady given that they have strong matchups. The other puzzle pieces on this slate fall into place fairly easily, but choosing a QB — and choosing chalk vs. contrarian — might be the most important decision.
- The RBs on this slate are interesting, because Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell are workhorses in bad matchups. Normally, they would be the first two players entered into your short slate lineup and you wouldn’t even consider taking them out. But is a contrarian route worth it this week as Elliott and Bell have negative matchups?
- New England’s injuries at WR — namely the absence of Josh Gordon and the potential limitation of Phillip Dorsett — open the door for some lesser-known options to step up. Do you roll the dice on New England’s unknown Week 7 target distribution?
Chalk: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
DK – QB2; FD – QB1
Prescott has a cakewalk matchup against the Eagles defense, and the difference between Prescott and Tom Brady is that the Eagles-Cowboys game should be competitive throughout. According to our Strength of Schedule app, the Cowboys’ QB has the second-easiest matchup of the week. The Eagles D has given up 30-point fantasy games to two of their last three opponents.2 As a home favorite against a soft defense, Prescott is the easy choice.
Contrarian: Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
DK – QB3; FD – QB3
QBs have mostly struggled against the Cowboys, and the tough matchup should keep Wentz low-owned, especially with so much ownership pulling toward Prescott and Brady. I like Wentz more than Sam Darnold on this slate, given Darnold’s hellish matchup. The Eagles have a reasonable team total (21.75), and Wentz has been fantastic this season, with QB1 or better finishes in five of six games:
Chalk: Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
DK – RB1; FD – RB1
Elliott is by far the most expensive RB on the slate, but he has the surest workload and is a home favorite. The matchup is bad, but it’s still better than the other workhorse on the slate (Le’Veon Bell). Just take Elliott’s volume and don’t overthink it.
Contrarian: Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
DK – RB6; FD – RB6
Sanders has been cruising as a receiver lately, finishing with receiving lines of 5-4-49-0 and 3-3-86-1 in his last two outings. Box score hunters will see Sanders’ decreased rushing attempts — from 13, to 11, to 9, to 3 —but keep in mind that the 9 was in a blowout win against the Jets, and the 3 came in a blowout loss against the Vikings. Sanders’ use in the passing game, coupled with his 8-12 rushing attempts, makes him a strong, cheap contrarian play on this short slate.
Chalk: Julian Edelman, New England Patriots
DK – WR2; FD – WR2
Edelman is coming off back-to-back 100-yard games, and he’ll be the centerpiece of New England’s passing attack again in Week 7 with Josh Gordon sidelined and Phillip Dorsett questionable. Edelman dropped 10-7-62-1 against the Jets in Week 3, and that was with a full strength receiving corps around him. He’s my top WR play on the slate with Amari Cooper questionable.
Contrarian: Jamison Crowder, New York Jets
DK – WR10; FD – WR9
It’s a miserable matchup against New England’s passing defense, but Crowder has the best chance of any Jets WR to make an impact. The Pats did give up above-average games to enemy slot receivers in recent weeks, including Cole Beasley (13-7-75-0) and Golden Tate (9-6-102-1). New England’s D has also given up the sixth-most air yards to opposing receivers over the last five weeks (because opposing offenses are always forced to pass).
* Check out all of the advanced matchup stats like his by selecting Matchup Analysis in the NFL Stat Explorer.
And in two full games with Darnold this season, Crowder has been his favorite target:
Contrarian: Jakoki Meyers
DK – WR12; FD – WR11
Meyers posted career highs across the board last week with a 4-4-54-0 line due to the absence of Gordon and Dorsett. He will operate as New England’s No. 3 with Gordon out,3 giving him another chance to produce before going back to the No. 4 role. Meyers will be known to preseason players, but he’s a total unknown to the public at large, making him a nice contrarian shot in the dark this week.
Chalk: Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
DK – TE1; FD – TE1
Ertz is the obvious top TE on this slate, as the next-best option if 72-year-old Jason Witten. Ertz is one of the biggest positive regression candidates out there right now, as he ranks fifth in PPR points, second in expected points per game, but 102nd in fantasy points over expectation per game.
Contrarian: Ben Watson, New England Patriots
DK – TE4; FD – TE8
I’ve mentioned a few times throughout this article that New England’s receiving pecking order this week outside of Edelman (and James White) is mostly unknown due to injuries, and that void in target volume makes Watson an interesting Hail Mary play in his first action of the season. It’s super thin, so this play isn’t for the faint of heart, but he does have a history with Brady. I think it’s more likely that Watson makes an impact in Game 1 than any other run-of-the-mill TE.
Image Credit: Gavin Baker/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Zach Ertz.
- An important note: I’m writing this column with tournaments and GPPs top of mind. Cash game plays on short slates are usually easier to figure out because the options are so thin; tournaments require quite a bit of game theory, which can be half the fun. (back)
- Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins. The third, non-30-point-scoring QB was Luke Falk. (back)
- He may even be the No. 2 if Dorsett misses as well. (back)