The Strength of Schedule Streaming app allows you to see which players have the easiest or most difficult upcoming schedules, a potentially league-winning edge that gives you the opportunity to buy players right before they explode in plus matchups.
Welcome back to the Buy Low Report. As usual, we will combine insight from the SoS Streaming App and the RotoViz Screener to identify players who are buy-low candidates. The SoS Streaming App reveals matchup data for each fantasy position. The Screener reports expected fantasy points (EP) — which measures the value of a player’s opportunities — and fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) — which measures a player’s efficiency.
Wide Receivers – Weeks 8 through 11
Anderson appeared on this list a few weeks ago, and he returns after an underwhelming Week 7. In the three games Sam Darnold has played this season, Anderson has 23 targets, 393 air yards, and a weighted opportunity rating of 0.64 (which would rank fifth among WRs on the season).
On Monday against New England, Anderson saw eight targets and 180 air yards, but he was only able to turn that into one catch for 10 yards. That alone makes him intriguing, but his upcoming schedule makes him a must-have buy-low candidate. The Jets have the fourth-easiest schedule for wide receivers over the next month, and that includes a matchup against the Jaguars that looks tougher than it actually is because Jacksonville no longer has Jalen Ramsey.
Matchups against the Dolphins, Giants, and Washington are exactly what the Darnold-Anderson connection needs to return to form.
Kenny Golladay’s value is at a relative minimum following a disappointing Week 7 in which Marvin Jones, Jr. caught 10 of 13 targets for 93 yards and four touchdowns. After starting the season with five straight games with eight or more targets, Golladay saw only two looks on Sunday, turning them into one reception for 21 yards. He will look to rebound in Week 8, and he couldn’t ask for an easier matchup than the Giants’ secondary. In fact, the Lions have the fifth-easiest schedule for wide receivers over the next month. Don’t panic after one bad game with Babytron; given the Lions’ upcoming schedule, you can safely expect fringe WR1 production moving forward.
Tyler Boyd is on pace for 167 targets.
That’s a lot.
Although his efficiency has been horrific — he’s averaging 6.5 yards per target and has just one touchdown through seven games — that kind of volume is worth chasing, especially in PPR leagues. Coming off a pair of disappointing performances with A.J. Green’s return looming, Boyd owners may be panicking. Boyd was actually better with Green last year, so any concern about the 31-year-old receiver’s return is likely overstated.
The Bengals have the 10th-easiest schedule for wide receivers over the next four weeks — although a Rams’ secondary that has been subpar against opposing wideouts all year recently got a major boost when they traded for Jalen Ramsey — so now is the perfect time to buy Boyd.
For the third straight week, Mike Williams finds himself on the Buy Low Report. The third time was the charm for DeAndre Hopkins last week when he finally broke through for a 25.6-point performance after appearing on this list three weeks in a row. In Weeks 5 through 7, Williams ranked second among wide receivers in air yards and 15th in WOPR. The Chargers have the seventh-easiest schedule for wide receivers over the next month, although they do have a difficult matchup against the Bears in Week 8. Still, the Bears’ defense hasn’t been as effective at preventing opposing wideouts from scoring fantasy points this season, and two perfect matchups against the Raiders and Chiefs come soon after that in Weeks 10 and 11, respectively.
It’ll be a welcome change for Williams and Keenan Allen (more on him soon!), who have faced the third-hardest schedule for wideouts over the last three weeks. Williams has been scoring fewer fantasy points than you’d expect based on his volume, and his upcoming schedule will catalyze impending positive regression.
After a scorching hot start to the season, Allen has slowed down significantly over the last month, notching just 15 catches for 160 yards total over the Chargers’ last four games. For reference, he had 13 catches and 183 yards in Week 3 alone. His target numbers dipped for a few weeks, but his 11-target, 10.1-fantasy-point performance in Week 7 lands him on this list. As we talked about with Mike Williams, the Chargers have a great schedule for wide receivers over the next month. Expect Allen to return to form sooner rather than later.
Running Backs – Weeks 8 through 11
Tevin Coleman appears on this list for the second straight week after accumulating 22 touches (20 carries and two targets) in the 49ers’ Week 7 win over Washington. Since his return from injury, Coleman ranks 19th among running backs in expected fantasy points per game, and that’s despite the fact that he has been playing limited snaps as San Francisco eases him back in. The 49ers have the sixth-easiest schedule for running backs over the next month — including two matchups against a woeful Arizona defense — and Coleman could be a fringe RB1 over that time span.
His snap share has risen in each of the last three weeks (from 34% to 55% to 66%), and the sky’s the limit if that trend continues. However, Coleman is still worth buying even if Matt Breida remains involved (which is the expectation considering Kyle Shanahan’s past usage of running backs).
Gordon has not done himself any favors since returning to the gridiron. He’s averaging a meager 2.3 yards per carry and cost the Chargers the game by fumbling on the goal line in crunch time against the Titans last week. With that said, he’s still getting solid — although not vintage Gordon — volume, as he ranks 14th among running backs in expected fantasy points per game over the last three weeks. In that same time span, he leads all runners in fantasy points below expectation per game with 6.8. After facing the third-toughest schedule for running backs since his return, Los Angeles’ upcoming schedule will be the perfect medicine for Gordon’s efficiency woes. From Weeks 8 to 11, the Chargers face the fifth-softest schedule for running backs in the league.
Austin Ekeler may prevent Gordon from being what he has been for the last few years, but Gordon can still be a valuable asset to fantasy teams as a lower-end RB1. His name value might drag his price up a little bit, but he’s still worth buying if you can get him at a reasonable price.
Over the next six weeks, Bell will play the Jaguars, Dolphins, Giants, Washington, Raiders, and Bengals. Coming off a disappointing outing against a stout Patriots’ defense, Bell’s price is as low as it’ll ever be. Now is your chance to buy a bona fide stud RB1 — he is on pace for 267 carries and 99 targets — with a favorable upcoming schedule.
Thanks for reading the Week 8 edition of the Buy Low Report. Check back next week for the Week 9 article.