Welcome to college football DFS for Week 10 and another mega main slate take down. This is your one stop shop for Cash and GPP plays for the main slate of this crazy college football weekend!
If you’ve been following along this season, we’ve had some crazy high hit rates on our player pools, but if you have any questions on Player X versus Player Y feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @FF_TravisM. I’d be glad to help.
But without further ado, let’s dive in.
First off, this the cheapest, messiest quarterback slate of the entire season. We don’t have any Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, or any of the typical slam dunk players. So, that means we really have to dig in to find the right values that allow us to stack points at the running back and wide receiver position. Let’s check out the best QBs for both Cash and GPP contests this week.
|Quarterback||Team||Salary||Expected Fantasy Points||Fantasy Points Per Game||Pass Comp + Rush Per Game||Implied Team Points||Opponents Pass Yds/Game Allowed|
|Jamie Newman||Wake Forest||7600||31.36||31.73||38||34||235.7|
|Ian Book||Notre Dame||7500||25.23||22.54||24.14||38||250.9|
|Jake Luton||Oregon State||6400||23.64||19.08||23.29||33||310.9|
Studs to Start
Jamie Newman ($7600, Wake Forest) has been a suggestion here before and for good reason. Yes, he’s coming off an injury, but when he plays there is essentially no one in college football with more weekly opportunity. Newman averages 38 total opportunities per game (pass completions plus rush attempts). The next closest player on this slate that’s worth a start sees about seven fewer opportunities per game. N.C. State has been a decent defense against the pass, but they’re on their third quarterback of the season now. Wake Forest could and should own this game easily after their tired defense trots onto the field after the sixth three-and-out by the Wolfpack.
Dillon Gabriel ($7500, UCF) is the ultimate prize this week for the college football projections model we’ve been working with all year. The UCF vs. Houston game is expected to give us about 70 points worth of offense, with 46 or 47 of that coming from UCF. If that script holds true (and it likely will with Houston reeling) then Gabriel is in for the largest opportunity he’s had on the year. Plus RB Greg McCrae is still out again so they may choose to lean a bit more on the pass facing a team that can’t stop anything through the air (nearly 300 yards per game passing allowed by Houston).
Ian Book ($7500, Notre Dame) didn’t fair too well against Michigan, but he’s done well against weaker teams. Virginia Tech has been allowing about three free passing touchdowns per game to all Power 5 opponents on a low volume of pass attempts. Book provides a decent third option for diversification in GPP at the QB1 spot.
Adrian Martinez ($6900, Nebraska) and Tommy Devito ($6400, Syracuse) have both struggled to stay on the field this year, but look to be healthy heading into this week. They both play easy defenses (Purdue and Boston College). They both see around 30 opportunities per game, good for top five on the slate. Martinez has the better efficiency numbers and looks like the better pro prospect. Devito has the second-softest matchup on the slate. Both should be sprinkled into GPP as a QB2 option. Martinez is a bit safer for Cash.
Jake Luton ($6400, Oregon State) and Max Duggan ($6300, TCU) are the super-risky, low-volume plays that are still worth every penny. Luton faces off with an Arizona defense surrendering 310 yards per game through the air, but offers a virtual zero as a rusher. Duggan, on the other hand, has a good (but not perfect) matchup with Oklahoma State. He does offer a ton of trustworthy upside with his legs though. And for that reason he’s probably safer for cash, but both are in good spots to break 20 or 25 points.
Priority: (1) Newman, (2) Gabriel, (3) Martinez, (4) Devito, (5) Duggan, (6) Luton, (7) Book)
This weekend is a strange one for running backs. The three best bets at the position may actually all cost less than $6000 to own.
|Running Back||Team||Salary||Expected Points||Points Per Game||Touches Per Game||Implied Team Points||Opponent Rush Yds/Game Allowed|
|Chuba Hubbard||Oklahoma State||8300||22.19||33.58||28||32||106.3|
|AJ Dillon||Boston College||7800||19.49||25.65||25.5||28.5||160|
|Cam Akers||Florida State||7900||17.67||29.1||24.38||25||106.4|
|Artavis Pierce||Oregon State||5900||15.40||18.29||16||33||159.8|
|Cade Carney||Wake Forest||5500||14.42||11.96||18.4||34||118.4|
|Deshawn McClease||Virginia Tech||5000||9.88||11.36||14.57||20.5||174.3|
The Three Musketeers
Otis Anderson, J.J. Taylor, and Zach Charbonnet should all be highly owned this week.
First off, Anderson is coming off a 200-yard thrashing of Temple just a week ago and McCrae is still out. Killins (the usual RB2) will be “limited.” He’s starting at tailback for an offense that should easily coast past 40 points. Auto play.
Second, Taylor draws the Oregon State defense (if you can call it that). The Beavers have been just laying down and watching opposing rushers drop about 200 yards a week on their sad faces. Taylor is quickly climbing the all-time rushing leaderboard for the Wildcats, seeing close to 20 touches when fully healthy. No-brainer play that only costs $5700.
And third, Charbonnet is facing a little more competition from Hassan Haskins (also a solid play due to $4000 price and implied points), but he’s still the guy for Michigan. Maryland has struggled all year to stop anyone and will likely hand 30-something points to the Wolverines. Charbonnet should clean up and take advantage for just $5800.
Studs to Start
This slate’s top tier running backs almost all have poor defensive matchups this week, but it might still not matter too much.
Chuba Hubbard will likely still get his 28 touches, but he likely doesn’t see the otherworldly efficiency he’s been pacing for against TCU’s top defense barely allowing 100 rushing yards per game. He’s almost a fade at $8300, but definitely worth having in GPPs.
Cam Akers and D’Andre Swift both have tough matchups against Miami and Florida, but their opportunities and talent should boost them near 20 points. Both of them typically see at or above 20 touches in tough matchups.
A.J. Dillon and Zack Moss are the studs with halfway decent matchups this week. Dillon’s trustworthy 25 touches make him the absolute chalk against Syracuse. And the Orange have been giving up about 160 yards on the ground per contest. Dillon has been posting 160 or more easily in positive matchups. Moss will be in a lower scoring game, but his volume will still be there.
Best of the Rest
Moe Neal ($6200, Syracuse) is the least sexy chalk play of all time. Boston College’s run defense is pathetic. Neal’s talent is pretty pathetic too. He and Abdul Adams (Syracuse 1b at RB) should both near 100 yards with a score, but they both feel better as depth GPP diversification than anything cash worthy.
Artavis Pierce has been fed pretty well for Oregon State, and their game against Arizona should have nearly 70 points involved. At $5900 he’s almost good enough to be in the no-brainer three musketeers tier, but Jermar Jefferson (his teammate) might vulture some efforts.
Cade Carney has insane weekly opportunity for a guy that costs $5500, but N.C. State again has a tough defense. His price makes sense, but you’ll want him in GPPs if his 18.4 touches per games comes to fruition.
Sewo Olonilua has seemingly surpassed teammate Darius Anderson in the pecking order for TCU, but still costs over $1000 less. He catches passes and runs like a freight train at 240 pounds. He should play in every type of contest.
King Doerue ($5000, Purdue) and Deshawn McClease ($5100, Virginia Tech) are both on weaker offenses that face pretty positive matchups on the ground. Doerue is just a freshman but has popped against weak run defenses. The run game has been the one thing Notre Dame can’t stop this season.
Priority: (1) Dillon, (2) Taylor, (3) Anderson, (4) Charbonnet, (5) Moss, (6) Olonilua, (7) One of the studs
Thanks to the quarterback pricing, elite wide receiver stacks will be plentiful this weekend.
|Wide Receiver||Team||Salary||Expected Points||Points Per Game||Touches Per Game||Implied Team Points||Opponent Receiving Yds/Game Allowed|
|Isaiah Hodgins||Oregon State||7700||19.38||28.5||8||33||310.9|
|Sage Surratt||Wake Forest||8000||18.40||30.01||7.57||34||235.7|
|Kendall Hinton||Wake Forest||5600||14.80||17.28||7.4||34||235.7|
|Kolby Taylor||Oregon State||3300||10.78||6.64||2.86||33||310.9|
|Noah Togiai||Oregon State||4100||10.47||5.27||3||33||310.9|
Should Be Household Names
Gabriel Davis, Isaiah Hodgins, and Sage Surratt aren’t exactly well known across the country. And it make sense that they aren’t, playing for UCF, Oregon State, and Wake Forest. But … They all three have absolutely dominated. They’re all top 10 in the nation for receiving yards per game. They have all scored at least 9 TDs (averaging more than one per game). And they all draw decent matchups this week. Surratt has the toughest matchup, which makes him the easiest to fade just slightly, but one of these guys needs to anchor every single one of your lineups.
The Cheat Codes
This slate might be the most fun at receiver we’ve seen all year. Three receivers just feel like a free space:
Wan’Dale Robinson ($5900, Nebraska) – Robinson has been averaging 13 touches per game because he’s really a running back and receiver hybrid, yet he can slot in as an elite flex or solid WR2 against a struggling Purdue team.
Kendall Hinton ($5600, Wake Forest) – Most haven’t apparently noticed this, but Hinton (former quarterback) has usurped Scotty Washington as the WR2 for the Demon Deacons. He’s caught 26 balls in the last three games he’s played. Lock him into your lineups.
David Bell ($5000, Purdue) – Rondale Moore is out again and that means great production for Bell is almost a sure thing. He’s caught at least three balls in every game Moore has missed. He’s snagged 29 receptions in just the last three weeks. He’s still $5000. Any questions?
Best of the Rest
Tre Nixon ($6100, UCF) is the other UCF receiver that offers safe volume and huge upside in a potential 7-TD destruction of Houston.
Trishton Jackson ($6700, Syracuse) is priced pretty high, but facing Boston College has been a great thing for opposing receivers. Jackson’s averaging nearly 20 points per game in neutral matchups and now gets one of the worst secondaries in Division I football? Sign me up. One of Taj Harris and Sean Riley likely finds the end zone for Syracuse this weekend too.
Brian Casteel ($5100, Arizona) and Tayvian Cunningham ($3500, Arizona) have to be the cheapest WR1 and WR2 combo on any team in the country. DraftKings has screwed their pricing up all year. Oregon State is a plus matchup.
Jalen Reagor ($5800, TCU) and Taye Barber ($4300, TCU) may be the fastest WR1 and WR2 tandem in the entire nation (both allegedly sub-4.4 guys). They get to face a porous Oklahoma State secondary and both average at least 4.5 catches per game.
Marquez Stevenson ($5600, Houston) would have a much higher ceiling in a better matchup with D’Eriq King at quarterback, but he’s averaging nearly 20 points per game and still costs under $6000.
And lastly, Kolby Taylor, Noah Togiai, Brycen Hopkins, and Jackson Anthrop are all averaging three catches or more recently for offenses that are in a good spot. Taylor and Togiai are facing the worst pass defense on the slate in Arizona. Hopkins and Anthrop have been safer PPR options with Moore out (averaging around five catches per game a piece).
Priority: (1) Hodgins, (2) Davis, (3) Surratt, (4) Hinton, (5) Bell, (6) Robinson, (7) Jackson, (8) Barber
And that’s all folks! Hope your teams kill it in the main slate of Week 10 College Football. Make sure to check out Devy Weekly to learn more about breakout studs every single week of the season. Please find me on Twitter @FF_TravisM to chat more about all things college football and NFL. And as always, keep living that DFS Life!