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The 3 and Out: Air Yards Round Up

The 3 and Out uses several RotoViz Apps to uncover significant workload changes; league, team, and player-specific trends; and hidden but powerful statistics.

Welcome back to The 3 and Out! In this week’s edition, we’re taking a look at air yards data from the last five weeks. Air yards and other receiving data can easily be found in the Weekly Stat Explorer.

The Leaders

  • Since Week 6, no player has been targeted for as many air yards as Mike Evans. He and Tyreek Hill are the only players to have surpassed 700. Impressively, Evans garnered 788 air yards in just four games whereas Hill accumulated his 772 in five.
  • Curtis Samuel is being targeted downfield, averaging 16.8 air yards per target. He ranks third in air yards per game with 130.
    • Unfortunately, Samuel finished as a WR1 just a single time in the games included in this four-game sample.
      • To be fair, he did post two WR2 finishes but with touchdowns in both of these games, his owners would have liked to have seen more than a combined 30 points.
        • While this may be a negative interpretation of the results, Samuel ranks fifth in overall air yards on the season but 39th in PPR points per game (PPG).
          • As you might expect, his fantasy-point-over-expectation rank of 152 tells a similar story.

 

  • Darius Slayton, who faces a favorable rest of season schedule, ranked 20th in air yards per game and smashed over the weekend scoring two touchdowns on 14 targets.
    • As the Giants continue to struggle with injuries, Slayton will remain a hot waiver wire commodity.
 
Rank Player Team GMs Tgt Rec Yards TD AirYards AY/Tgt
1 Mike Evans TB 4 51 36 556 3 788 15.5
2 Tyreek Hill KC 5 51 31 527 5 772 15.1
3 Kenny Golladay DET 5 35 19 454 4 596 17
4 Stefon Diggs MIN 5 36 25 505 3 563 15.6
5 Keenan Allen LAC 5 42 24 255 0 555 13.2
6 Curtis Samuel CAR 4 31 15 215 3 520 16.8
7 Marvin Jones DET 5 39 29 335 5 503 12.9
8 Julio Jones ATL 4 39 27 432 0 500 12.8
9 John Brown BUF 4 32 19 290 1 489 15.3
10 Darius Slayton NYG 5 33 18 237 4 456 13.8
11 Mike Williams LAC 5 29 17 354 0 455 15.7
12 D.J. Moore CAR 4 40 28 332 0 453 11.3
13 Auden Tate CIN 4 37 16 257 0 450 12.2
14 Preston Williams MIA 4 30 17 227 2 428 14.3
15 Allen Robinson CHI 4 37 22 241 1 426 11.5
16 Julian Edelman NE 4 49 34 327 2 425 8.7
17 Robby Anderson NYJ 5 29 13 222 1 424 14.6
18 Hunter Henry LAC 5 40 29 358 3 420 10.5
19 Odell Beckham Jr. CLE 4 36 21 297 0 414 11.5
20 Amari Cooper DAL 4 28 21 336 2 412 14.7
21 Tyler Lockett SEA 5 40 32 414 3 409 10.2
22 Courtland Sutton DEN 4 30 18 291 1 407 13.6
23 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 4 48 37 318 2 403 8.4
24 DeVante Parker MIA 5 38 23 268 3 401 10.6
25 D.K. Metcalf SEA 5 38 23 328 3 381 10

Shrinking Air Yards

  • Chris Godwin’s 2019 has been amazing. He ranks third in overall PPR scoring and PPG and eighth in expected points.
    • However, Godwin has slowed down as of late — between Weeks 1 and 6 he averaged 24 PPG. Since Week 7, he’s averaged only 13.
      • This is notable as his targets per game actually increased by 0.67 in the recent split.
        • In Tampa Bay’s three most recent contests, Godwin has drawn an average of 81 yards per game, a decrease of 22 air yards per game compared to his opening split.
          • The more impactful driver of his PPG regression is touchdowns. All six of his scores came between Week 1 and 5.
  • Calvin Ridley’s sophomore season has been a disappointment. He ranks just 40th in PPG despite scoring two more points than expected on a weekly basis.
    • Ridley scored an astounding 10 touchdowns as a rookie and is on pace for seven in 2019.
      • Unfortunately, the air yards being thrown his way have dropped since Week 6.
        • He averaged 90 air yards per game in Weeks 1 through 6 but has averaged only 70 in his last three games.
  • In 2018, JuJu Smith-Schuster enjoyed a total of  1,470 air yards (92 per game). Through nine games in 2019, he’s garnered only 607 air yards (67 per game).

Opportunities

By comparing a player’s air yards rank with his PPR rank, between weeks 6 and 10, we can get a sense of players that may be primed for explosive games. RB, WR, and TE have been included in the below analysis.

  • Tedd Ginn ranks 35th in air yards but just 213th in PPR rank. He’s been targeted four times per game since Week 6.
    • Of course, Ginn averaged just five PPG in that stretch, so fantasy players in seasonal leagues likely won’t be turning his way. Nonetheless, he’s an intriguing option for DFS players as the potential for a handful of high-scoring plays is in his realm of possibilities.
  • Auden Tate accumulated 450 air yards in his last four games. This total is 13th best among all players, even among those who played in five games.
    • Playing in the Bengals’ offense is tough and has limited Tate’s point accrual to just 42 points in this time frame.
      • While Tate has underperformed his point expectations in all but one week this season, he did record an expectation of 23 points in Week 8. Given the air yards being thrown his way and uncertainty surrounding A.J. Green, Tate remains a viable option for your flex.
  • Adam Gase has done his best to hamstring the Jets’ offense this season. Nonetheless, there may be some, albeit unlikely, hope for Robby Anderson to close the season on a positive note.
    • Anderson’s 424 air yards in our given time frame ranks 17th yet his PPR total comes in at a miserable 129th.
      • There is, however, a significant caveat: of these 424 air yards, 180 came in Week 7 against New England.
        • Anderson opposes favorable matchups, from a WR strength of schedule perspective, between Weeks 11 and 15 which may allow him to convert a higher percentage of the targets thrown his way into fantasy points.

Top-100 in Total Air Yards Since Week 6

PlayerTeamGMsTgtRecYardsTDAirYardsAY/TgtPPRAY RankPPR RankDiff
Mike EvansTB45136556378815.5111.618-7
Tyreek HillKC55131527577215.111526-4
Kenny GolladayDET5351945445961788.4325-22
Stefon DiggsMIN53625505356315.696.5416-12
Keenan AllenLAC54224255055513.251.3589-84
Curtis SamuelCAR43115215352016.862.3662-56
Marvin JonesDET53929335550312.992.5718-11
Julio JonesATL43927432050012.870.2845-37
John BrownBUF43219290148915.354978-69
Darius SlaytonNYG53318237445613.865.71057-47
Mike WilliamsLAC52917354045515.752.61185-74
D.J. MooreCAR44028332045311.362.51261-49
Auden TateCIN43716257045012.241.713128-115
Preston WilliamsMIA43017227242814.351.71487-73
Allen RobinsonCHI43722241142611.552.11586-71
Julian EdelmanNE4493432724258.780.41633-17
Robby AndersonNYJ52913222142414.641.217129-112
Hunter HenryLAC54029358342010.582.81832-14
Odell Beckham Jr.CLE43621297041411.550.21991-72
Amari CooperDAL42821336241214.766.62054-34
Tyler LockettSEA54032414340910.291.721201
Courtland SuttonDEN43018291140713.653.82280-58
DeAndre HopkinsHOU4483731824038.483.42331-8
DeVante ParkerMIA53823268340110.667.82451-27
D.K. MetcalfSEA5382332833811076.92536-11
Golden TateNYG5443040433648.39026233
Chris GodwinTB4412732903558.762.72760-33
Michael GallupDAL42713191234812.944.128118-90
Christian KirkARI3261622533391359.22966-37
Alshon JefferyPHI43120214132410.547.430106-76
A.J. BrownTEN52615196131812.240.431132-101
Michael ThomasNO4484148413176.694.5321715
Allen LazardGB52418220131413.14633111-78
Juju Smith-SchusterPIT424121701312133534149-115
Ted GinnNO4166126031019.420.335213-178
Zach ErtzPHI42917215131010.744.535116-81
Tyler BoydCIN438201920304839.537134-97
D.J. CharkJAC4321620713049.544.737115-78
Demaryius ThomasNYJ5312027002929.44739108-69
Nelson AgholorPHI4231394029012.623.140201-161
Mark AndrewsBAL42716212228910.749.24195-54
Chris ConleyJAC4259218128711.538.842135-93
Corey DavisTEN42315173128312.338.343138-95
Calvin RidleyATL42415176128011.742.544126-82
Scott MillerTB413572027621.212.245262-217
Davante AdamsGB22114159027513.129.946164-118
Danny AmendolaDET5332426402748.350.44790-43
Emmanuel SandersSF52719221227210.153.14883-35
Gerald EverettLAR430161421270936.249146-97
Jamison CrowderNYJ5342631222647.869.250491
Taylor GabrielCHI41712167125915.234.651153-102
Mike GesickiMIA5261822502569.840.552131-79
Travis KelceKC5382830222526.670.253458
Tyrell WilliamsOAK3159164125116.731.454160-106
Alex EricksonCIN4291828102518.748.95497-43
James WashingtonPIT31711180124914.63556149-93
Josh ReynoldsLAR4156122124116.124.157196-139
Jarvis LandryCLE4382324922386.359.95864-6
Zach PascalIND42214214323410.653.45982-23
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingGB5105185122822.830.460161-101
Randall CobbDAL31914170122211.73761141-80
Darren WallerOAK4231422932199.554.96275-13
T.Y. HiltonIND2178128121712.826.863185-122
Cooper KuppLAR4281728712177.851.76387-24
Terry McLaurinWAS42113189221310.143.965119-54
David MooreSEA516791021113.216.366237-171
Greg OlsenCAR4241720302118.837.366140-74
Eric EbronIND4231416812109.136.868142-74
Robert WoodsLAR4241421102068.643.969119-50
Noah FantDEN42011164120410.233.470155-85
Tajae SharpeTEN513888219815.228.871173-102
Breshad PerrimanTB316659119512.217.972228-156
Mohamed SanuNE4251613611957.835.672147-75
Anthony MillerCHI4159138019412.922.774203-129
George KittleSF4282330611926.959.6756510
Jake KumerowGB5138142118714.428.276175-99
Sammy WatkinsKC3271714701846.832.977157-80
Deebo SamuelSF426181890183745.978112-34
Jimmy GrahamGB522151781177838.879135-56
Cole BeasleyBUF4211214431778.444.479117-38
T.J. HockensonDET5251417701736.931.781159-78
Vyncint SmithNYJ510435017117.18.882281-199
Larry FitzgeraldARI5272119801716.340.882130-48
Jason WittenDAL4251916501706.835.584148-64
Adam HumphriesTEN5211819911667.943.985119-34
Pharoh CooperARI515118901651120.186215-129
Paul RichardsonWAS414776016211.614.687244-157
Will FullerHOU210650016116.11188269-181
Demarcus RobinsonKC518109801618.919.888219-131
Austin HooperATL4252224541616.470.5884444
Jonnu SmithTEN5231719811546.742.891124-33
Phillip DorsettNE3148102115310.924.292195-103
Diontae JohnsonPIT417121651153934.792152-60
Kendrick BourneSF51510141215210.138.194139-45
Geronimo AllisonGB5201310701497.523.795198-103
Jakeem GrantMIA410780014614.61596243-147
Damiere ByrdARI3958201441613.297255-158
Kyle RudolphMIN5221814841426.558.8986731
KeeSean JohnsonARI414542114110.115.299239-140
Hunter RenfrowOAK4191619821397.347.8100102-2
Image Credit: Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Mike Evans.

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