Waiver Wire Dumpster Dives takes you beyond the obvious plays and helps you find undervalued gems for deep leagues.
As most leagues kick off their playoffs starting in Week 14, this is one of my favorite weeks to write this column. This is where I annually look at cheap keepers or dynasty trade targets. Let’s face it, if you are in the playoffs, hopefully, you don’t need any Dumpster Dives specials … unless you were riding Dalvin Cook and didn’t handcuff him with Alexander Mattison.
That being said, I also widen the birth a bit. Instead of highlighting players rostered in 10% of leagues or less, I am going to bump it up to 25% or less. These are undervalued players who you should be able to snag this late into the season, who will either cost you next to nothing as a keeper in next year’s draft or could be a cheap offseason trade target.
As always, we’ll use RotoViz tools like the amazing NFL Stat Explorer to discover and visualize the data we need to unearth these hidden gems.
A.J. Brown WR (Tennessee Titans) Owned 21%
The Titans have been a mixed bag this season. But at 8-5, Tennessee still has playoff hopes alive. For fantasy, outside of Derrick Henry, the Titans have not been quite so fruitful. Brown though is showing reasons you should snag him while you can.
It is safe to assume Marcus Mariota isn’t in Nashville come 2020. I would put money on Ryan Tannehill getting the franchise tag and a rookie behind him. That is great news for Brown. Since Tannehill has taken over signal calling Brown has averaged 5.2 targets per game, racked up 353 receiving yards, two touchdowns and is averaging 9.52 fantasy points per game in half-point PPR. He is leading all receivers on the team in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns.
|A.J. Brown||Games||Targets||Receptions||Yards||TDs||Fantasy Points||Fantasy Points/Gm|
With the 12th highest fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) per game, the young rookie is showing glimpses of what he can do in a capable offense and has already usurped Corey Davis for fantasy value. Unfortunately, the 75th expected points per game demonstrate the limits this offense has had this season. Luckily that is exactly why you might be able to buy low in dynasty or snag off waivers in keeper leagues.
Going into his second year with a full offseason working with his quarterback, I expect a nice step forward in development from the talented young receiver.
Mike Gesicki, TE (Miami Dolphins) Owned 10.3%
I wrote about Gesicki in last week’s column and highlighted his steady target volume since Miami’s bye week. He rewarded that with a top-tier TE performance. Another seven targets netted the Sophomore tight end five receptions, 79 yards, and a touchdown. That was good for 16.4 points in half-point PPR formats and the No.2 TE on the week.
Since returning from their bye week, Gesicki is averaging 8.2 EP per game and has had double-digit EP in three of those weeks. To put that into perspective, George Kittle is rostered in 100% of leagues and the No.7 TE in EP per game on the season with an average of 10.5.
We knew Gesicki was a top tier athlete. His underutilization in Miami was mind-boggling and seems to have left a bad taste in fantasy GMs’ collective mouth. But we are seeing him become a key piece of the Dolphins offense in his second year. He is going to be a building block for this team. Snag him and stash him now for 2020 before the offseason hype train takes off.
Geronimo Allison, WR (Green Bay Packers) Owned 16.5%
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice … Well, here I go again anyway.
I was a big Allison proponent this past offseason. That did not pan out as expected to start the season. As of late though, he has reeled me back in.
Despite starting the season behind Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allison has overtaken him in terms of snap count and targets since Davante Adams’ injury. In that time Allison has averaged 64% of the offensive snaps and 4-plus targets per game. Allison has settled into the starting role opposite Adams along with Allen Lazard.
Lazard has certainly been fun to watch and is the wild card that makes me a little nervous about Allison moving forward. But his snap count and recent target numbers show me that Aaron Rodgers isn’t looking his way as a top read in the receiving game. Still, it is a training camp story we should monitor.
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