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The 3 and Out: Placing 2019 RBs In A Historical Context

The 3 and Out uses several RotoViz Apps to uncover significant workload changes; league, team, and player-specific trends; and hidden but powerful statistics.

Welcome back to The 3 and Out! Hopefully, you made the playoffs and are primed to take home a championship trophy! With 13 weeks — and for many the fantasy regular season — behind us let’s place some context around the performance of 2019 running backs.

RB Performances

Saquon Barkley has averaged more than 15 points per game (PPG) this season, yet his owners can’t help but feel a little let down by this production. After a dominant rookie season expectations for the athletic freak were exceptionally high. While regression certainly seemed like a possibility, it was easy to ignore. A number of factors hampered Barkley’s sophomore campaign including a nagging ankle injury and the Giants’ overall struggles. While Barkley did see a dip of three expected points per game, the major driver of his “sophomore slump” is a lack of touchdowns. The per-game numbers paint a lucid picture.

 
SEAS GMS RUATT RUYDS YPC RUTD TARGETS RECS REYARDS RETDS RUEP REEP PPR/G
2018 12 16 80 4.9 0.67 8 6 50 0.33 10 11 25.3
2019 9 15 60 4 0.22 6 4 32 0.11 9 9 15.5

*2018 numbers include first 13 weeks of season only

But just how lackluster of a season was Barkley’s 2019? To answer this question I hopped into the RotoViz Screener, searched all running back seasons from 2000 to 2019, constrained the results to include Weeks 1-13 only, and then filtered out all players that averaged fewer than 10 opportunities per game.1 In a histogram, which summarizes the distribution of the PPG averages of the players in our data set, we can see that Barkley’s 2019 is far from miserable. Of course, its a far cry from his explosive rookie season. From 2000 to 2019, the most common PPG totals fall between 10 and 12. Just 26 players fall at or above Barkley’s rookie PPG.

To clarify what might not be intuitive from looking at the graph, in 2019 Barkley averaged more PPG than 73% of all running backs that saw more than 10 opportunities per game in the last 20 seasons. More than half of these players scored less than 12 PPG.  In the context of 2019, Barkley ranks RB13 in PPG.

Was 2019 “Normal”?

In 2018, the RB13 averaged 16 PPG and in 2017, an average of 15 PPG belonged to the RB13. So at first glance, 2019 doesn’t seem to be an outlier. If we look at the number of RBs that averaged 15 or more PPG on a seasonal basis this is further confirmed.

The RB24 averaged 12.5 PPG in this time frame. 2019’s RB24, Devin Singletary, has averaged 12.8. Ultimately, the takeaway here is that while, like most seasons, 2019 may feel different than most, it has all-in-all been a pretty normal year. To be fair, that statement doesn’t take ADP into account but that’s something that we’ll look into when all of the 2019 dust has settled.

The Historic Performance You Might Not be Aware Of

If you’re in the playoffs there’s a decent chance you own Dalvin Cook who has scored more than 13 points in every 2019 game and always finished as an RB2 or better.

As you might expect, only Christian McCaffrey is averaging more PPG among RBs. Since 2000, only three backs have averaged more PPR on a weekly basis than his 30. What you might not know, however, is that in this time frame there have been just 32 separate instances in which a player averaged more than Cook’s 23 PPG through the first 13 weeks of the season. This becomes even more impressive when one considers that a number of these instances belong to the same player. In fact, only 22 players have managed to eclipse the former Seminole’s total.

McCaffrey and Cook are the only backs from 2019 to make the top 50 of our data. Surprisingly, seven 2018 backs make this list. The season with the second-highest total, 2001, boasts six players and the average season 2.5.

You’re likely interested who the other players comprising this elite company are. Below are the results for all players that met our criteria, sorted high to low on PPG.

PLAYERSEASGamesRUATTRUYDSYPCRUTDTARGETSRECSREYARDSRETDSRUEPREEPPPG
LaDainian Tomlinson20061225713245.22370514703172.3104.833
Priest Holmes20021227113224.91976666343166.4109.332.8
Marshall Faulk2000101598235.2985596596104.7131.730.1
Christian McCaffrey201912235116751296756444151.2142.629.5
Marshall Faulk2001101638405.2676605597103.5116.828
Todd Gurley201812233117551561464744164.59527.6
Priest Holmes20031225211774.71765555590155.391.727.6
Priest Holmes200481968924.61425191871132.436.227.1
David Johnson20161222810054.41196647044148148.927.1
Brian Westbrook2007112169944.6791696044120.4138.426.8
LaDainian Tomlinson20051226111724.51757423392165.381.726.8
LaDainian Tomlinson20021228613404.71275604101175.510526.1
Arian Foster201012246123051363504792160.694.125.9
Edgerrin James20001229113094.51065474324167.29925.6
Marshall Faulk2002101738454.9884644482103.1120.425.3
Saquon Barkley2018121959544.9891746024123.2137.925.3
Melvin Gordon2018101538025.296044453479.790.725.2
Ahman Green20031226213835.3105245338414674.925.1
Christian McCaffrey2018121638635.3592806636102.4134.724.9
Le'Veon Bell201691808174.537763501199.4116.824.5
Brian Westbrook2006111779075.159166586494.3130.924.5
Arian Foster2011102249164.1858415102135.98524.4
Ronnie Brown200771196025.144639389172.664.924.3
Ricky Williams20001024810214.1855444091148.578.124.3
Larry Johnson20061231013124.21351323752197.972.224.2
Alvin Kamara2018121607304.61184655554112.8134.724
Shaun Alexander20051228213884.9222410520180.632.223.8
Chris Johnson20091224415096.2954393221140.175.423.7
Arian Foster201491809015746312554102.568.323.6
LaDainian Tomlinson20031221511725.5988664080120.9124.123.6
Devonta Freeman2015111818114.51073584762109.4106.723.5
Matt Forte2014122018284.1598786503124.9140.723
Dalvin Cook20191222310464.71258485030143.180.822.9
LaDainian Tomlinson20071223910494.41172504271138.3102.722.9
Deuce McAllister20031227213935.1862503630144.385.622.8
Ray Rice2011122089264.5982565472143.2116.522.8
LeSean McCoy20111221511345.31259422773137.692.422.8
Ricky Williams20021228012794.61245373011174.164.922.8
James Conner2018122019094.51268524671137.499.422.6
Peyton Hillis2010122179624.41167534362122.3100.322.6
Adrian Peterson20071018411986.5102416230193.733.322.5
DeMarco Murray20141228714275850443430157.968.422.4
Charlie Garner2002121297195.659173761364.8129.422.4
Deuce McAllister20021123210494.51056393052141.478.822.4
Tiki Barber20041223911834.9958404961137.381.322.3
Jamaal Charles20131221910114.6987554522138.9130.922.3
Edgerrin James20051230413474.41235302421194.553.122.2
Ezekiel Elliott20161226212864.9123428322114752.122.2
Steven Jackson20061223810144.3587726220143.9123.622.1
Ezekiel Elliott20181224011504.8668534233132107.122
Todd Gurley2017122239394.2866485633143.3101.122
Le'Veon Bell20141221610464.8381656432114.3117.122
LaMont Jordan2005122338443.6988614932147123.921.9
Brian Westbrook2004111537054.637059566687.6103.921.8
Charlie Garner20001221210184.8674525373130.2112.821.8
Ahman Green20011223410944.7666515182130.49921.7
Edgerrin James200161516624.4329241930100.742.721.6
Le'Veon Bell20171227010573.9582665021151.5123.521.5
LaDainian Tomlinson20041226710123.81354433320190.177.721.4
Priest Holmes20011222511465.1655454892126.27621.4
Maurice Jones-Drew20091223310774.61359422790155.280.821.3
Ezekiel Elliott201781917834.1726191902114.735.621.3
LeSean McCoy2010121688234.977667519292.5113.421.3
Fred Jackson2011101709345.565039442098.668.421.3
Melvin Gordon20161225199241056414192163.680.421.2
Edgerrin James200392258233.7759422380156.283.221.1
Ray Rice2009121818754.868064599197.2114.321.1
Travis Henry20021223811094.71153402981148.275.721.1
Jamaal Charles20155713645.143021177137.445.321
Ahman Green2002112229674.4660493712127.286.621
Edgerrin James20041226112914.9843383650160.962.921
Kareem Hunt2018111818244.6735263787113.264.320.9
DeMarco Murray20161222910434.6854453093141.384.620.9
Shaun Alexander2002122097793.71169534172132.695.820.9
Adrian Peterson20101223311234.8114733332114468.820.9
Clinton Portis20031123012345.4745352720139.66120.9
Adrian Peterson20121223414466.2845361950132.570.420.8
Alvin Kamara20171286606777560614453.7105.120.8
Matt Forte2013122149714.5773584451121.1107.520.8
Julius Jones20044984454.5514624059.41820.7
Curtis Martin20041228213054.61037311442171.455.920.7
Fred Taylor200091959194.7546311952120.865.620.5
Shaun Alexander20041225812734.91228161243153.949.920.5
Matt Forte20081224810124.1658483584146.886.920.4
Arian Foster20121228311023.91344301372196.273.620.3
Adrian Peterson20091224311034.51241332790164.358.320.3
Michael Pittman200491576624.273927292389.357.220.3
Ricky Williams20011226110554669474841142.698.720.2
Domanick Davis2004112067043.4958494201138.384.820.1
Darren McFadden2010101768704.954836351295.773.220
Doug Martin20121223611064.7947323741148.56620
Eddie George20001229510643.695240395017574.720
Austin Ekeler2019121043803.737969718764.9126.619.9
Joseph Addai2007112239434.2938312692141.154.419.8
Brian Westbrook2008101596574.185137231493.980.819.8
Jamal Lewis20031228514425.1933221710167.944.719.8
Arian Foster20154631632.612822227233.540.119.8
Tiki Barber2002122239474.2773544600141.4104.719.7
Robert Smith20001223812765.4533293163127.247.519.7
LeSean McCoy2016111749495.5941362361105.960.819.7
Curtis Martin20011225011404.61042371870146.959.719.6
Stephen Davis20001126010664.11036232510166.149.919.5
Knowshon Moreno2013122028424.2951424142126.773.419.5
James White201812763294.3410374659653.6154.119.4
Frank Gore20061222312175.5563463460131.190.619.4
Shaun Alexander20011223110094.41145332581134.464.519.3
Tiki Barber20051225212334.9645323211143.565.919.3
Kevin Jones2006111726924672554531111.9105.619.2
Adrian Peterson20131226112084.61037271651147.355.219.2
Thomas Jones20081223310884.71132271612151.945.219.2
Derrick Henry20191223211394.91123172002132.932.619.1
Brian Westbrook200512156617439661616475.2141.319
LeSean McCoy20131223210884.754839435112771.718.9
Kevin Smith20114332296.931615138119.723.518.9
Shaun Alexander20031224510344.2947352232155.768.418.9
Frank Gore2009101376684.965741271370.986.518.9
Leonard Fournette2019122209894.5381654430136.1120.618.9
Jahvid Best20116843904.624027287148.757.518.8
Marshawn Lynch2014122129564.5938282973137.559.418.8
Frank Gore2010112038534.2372464522115.2108.918.8
Curtis Martin2000122348603.7768473332147.596.418.8
Ray Rice2012121988724.486549409011196.718.8
Matt Forte2011122039974.9376524901110.3109.718.7
Marion Barber2008122258703.9756473662139.180.418.7
Adrian Peterson2011101868724.71119161171111.226.118.7
Aaron Jones2019121596454.11153393673106.884.618.7
Marshall Faulk200371234753.973325161071.448.718.7
Reggie Bush2013111808544.7366454482101.993.918.7
Jamaal Charles201411162813584330214493.866.918.6
Le'Veon Bell201561135564.932624136065.639.718.5
Larry Johnson20051222111085113222229014342.318.5
Shane Vereen20134351775.10382822012354.318.4
Knowshon Moreno201091466334.343829315397.155.618.4
Willie Parker2006122329764.2936292113142.752.818.3
Reggie Bush20088902943.326647398344.495.818.3
Priest Holmes200571194513.863221197170.245.918.3
Ezekiel Elliott2019122279904.4751393261131.572.518.2
Steven Jackson20091226612324.6464442670148.593.218.2
Ricky Williams20031230010133.4747402681180.162.418
Alvin Kamara2019101255874.717664444168.510918
Darren McFadden201171136145.442319154162.432.418
Andre Brown20134833434.13171165053.724.718
Nick Chubb20191223711745743312450144.862.117.9
Reggie Bush2007121575813.7498734172103.6145.917.9
Mark Ingram2017121809225.1953422550113.278.117.8
Joseph Addai2009121816623.7952432733110.780.417.8
Marshawn Lynch2013122249704.3934272342147.550.117.8
DeAngelo Williams20091119710225.2737262340119.855.717.8
Leonard Fournette20185903143.541414134157.921.717.8
Corey Dillon20041125412214.891410720162.619.617.8
DeMarco Murray2013101426974.974439268089.859.617.8
Tiki Barber2000121437445.257251516181.4103.917.8
Adrian Peterson20081227013114.99331894015645.617.7
Adrian Peterson20151224511824.8832271890145.745.217.7
Willis McGahee20071224310484.3742372221141.560.117.7
Fred Taylor20021222810084.4648403320118.371.917.7
Frank Gore2008122149254.3661393541131.783.317.6
Ricky Watters2000121968574.4559414222115.285.617.6
Steven Jackson2005122038694.375140299212373.417.6
Chester Taylor20061226510984.1546382661154.963.217.5
LaDainian Tomlinson20011328110073.61052402650187.774.417.5
Leonard Fournette2017102078224734251951119.347.817.5
Jamaal Charles20101218211376.234734379193.76417.5
Dion Lewis20157492344.825036388228.47017.5
Domanick Davis2005102088374240322873106.259.217.4
Steven Jackson200881496194.243826275074.952.317.4
Stephen Davis20031127012584.7714111250156.72017.4
Trent Richardson2012122298273.6760443391128.184.617.4
Maurice Jones-Drew20111225011374.5543292971141.762.417.4
Tiki Barber20061224911704.7163463940129.789.517.4
Mike Anderson2000101939715727191350116.74117.4
Maurice Jones-Drew20101226111774.543529276214252.717.4
Clinton Portis2002121929955.2936242441118.350.917.3
Latavius Murray2016101405534113829228094.154.217.3
Travis Henry2003112419704931221321142.845.717.3
Moe Williams2003121506714.547154499290.2105.817.3
Edgerrin James2002102247783.5263472741128.991.317.2
Clinton Portis20081225512284.8728231870141.642.817.2
Maurice Jones-Drew2008121305524.2114943418088.167.917.2
Ahman Green2000121647534.657453417197.6106.817.2
Mark Ingram2015121667694.66605040501038417.1
Duce Staley20005793444.413325201041.745.717.1
Tiki Barber2003122299934.3274533291124.5107.817.1
Fred Taylor20031224910374.2463413031147.98917.1
James Stewart2002111959104.7457392771112.582.217.1
Steven Jackson200781656283.843726196099.653.817.1
Kareem Hunt2017121939304.8447393672100.265.217.1
DeAngelo Williams2008121939554.91124181122117.235.817.1
Michael Pittman2000121335624.247761515274.9107.217.1
Joe Mixon2018101547554.954233256191.862.217
Corey Dillon20021224410184.2750362430143.871.717
Pierre Thomas20103461473.211717133030.724.717
Michael Turner20081228212084.313641101768.817
Melvin Gordon2017122077753.75624230241249617
Marshawn Lynch2008122058444.1757432831119.878.917
Steve Slaton2008121809045837342501126.957.417
Ahman Green2004111969164.7635281951112.652.116.9
Justin Forsett20141217910095.6747352270108.770.116.9
Dalvin Cook20174743544.82161190043.423.516.9
LeSean McCoy2012101777504.2250402353103.476.716.9
Ahmad Bradshaw20101221910134.674133239012360.616.9
Matt Forte201591726763.9342312671104.57116.8
Warrick Dunn2001101253412.737557469264.8101.916.8
Chris Johnson2008122039584.7754352271112.274.616.8
LaDainian Tomlinson2008122177943.7662443601123.285.316.8
Lamar Smith2000112168373.91025211391118.535.816.8
Devonta Freeman2016121767854.5747373182126.173.716.8
Ryan Mathews201111165829544739386085.864.416.8
Ahmad Bradshaw201181224783.953426219172.851.616.7
Jamal Lewis20021223610444.45463629601356416.7
Matt Forte2010121777484.2548363893110.172.116.6
Darren Sproles201112634306.828967522434.6132.516.5
Chris Johnson20101223610264.393929119015456.516.5
Eddie Lacy2014121757704.4639313523100.657.716.4
Le'Veon Bell201391595283.3548333190106.569.816.4
Duce Staley200110128510426544451269.997.516.4
Garrison Hearst2002121647814.8759402881101.487.316.4
Ahman Green2006101837904.344230250199.563.816.4
Thomas Jones2004101646654.155039284099.372.216.4
Tarik Cohen201812743154.327559659437.4108.116.4
Domanick Davis2003111888254.4553373050117.674.616.4
Clinton Portis20041227510934348331932154.467.416.4
LeSean McCoy2015101737924.634127249290.459.316.3
Chris Carson2019122319834.3539322282138.758.516.3
Mark Ingram2019121668375923201723116.334.316.2
Ricky Williams2009121728675933222182101.74716.2
Mark Ingram201491727674.5628221110116.640.216.2
Reggie Bush2006121193683.149673562170133.816.2
Clinton Portis20051224910794.3734241810147.650.216.2
James Conner201981023903.843430242259.549.116.2
C.J. Spiller2012121379076.653933339168.654.116.1
James Stewart2000122468303.484128226117160.516.1
LeSean McCoy2017122078514.1462483041118.895.516.1
Ryan Moats2009466261439864146.115.116.1
Rashad Jennings201481545983.9435261880101.149.916.1
Larry Johnson200781585593.534230186191.360.716.1
Marshawn Lynch200791967513.8620151200116.628.316.1
Tiki Barber2001101135975.335945378060.886.216.1
Deuce McAllister20055933353.631817117062.429.316
Clinton Portis200681275234.172617170089.836.916
Marshawn Lynch2011112028544.2831201701108.844.916
Ray Rice2010122128444365494100115.89716
Derrick Ward200781256024.834026179166.956.616
David Johnson2018122057623.76513532821197516
Chris Brown2004102059764.8532191340106.843.616
Phillip Lindsay2018121549376.18322518919144.616
Brandon Jacobs2008111859505.112105310129.312.315.9
Ahmad Bradshaw201410904254.724738300655.477.715.9
Tyrone Wheatley2000101556864.4829201561113.241.115.8
Corey Dillon200581425063.681814137084.325.615.8
Chris Ivory2015111958134.2729242021128.543.715.8
LaDainian Tomlinson2010121777794.457347343010310315.8
Ronnie Brown200991476484.48201498099.628.815.7
Clinton Portis2007122389203.9743322280144.860.615.7
Duce Staley2002121927834.1256424252112.484.115.7
Marshall Faulk2004111616834.236048286110287.615.7
Eddie George2002122448223.4737292142141.656.615.7
Corey Dillon2001122519253.7645261573138.670.615.7
Garrison Hearst2001121839395.1445343031104.663.515.7
Jamal Lewis2007111978034.182820175114042.315.6
Steve Slaton2009111314373.335544417472.382.215.6
Joseph Addai2006121718404.9739302451113.356.815.5
Chris Thompson201710642944.62543951043280.415.5
Frank Gore2007111717134.254938314095.866.815.5
Jordan Howard2016111808844.9538222421101.755.915.5
Saquon Barkley20199137544425638291180.378.715.5
Michael Turner2009101778644.91075350104.39.615.5
Doug Martin2015122271133542923194113244.115.5
Rashard Mendenhall20101225610083.9928191160149.841.515.5
Spencer Ware2016111637344.533427395296.355.215.4
Aaron Jones2018101126435.773223178163.445.115.3
Cedric Benson200910241969461712810129.324.515.3
Lamar Miller2015121396804.954739346276.569.715.3
Thomas Jones20051123610054.362820116012738.615.3
Warrick Dunn2003111256725.435237336267.871.515.3
LeGarrette Blount2016122309574.21376310155.510.515.2
Marshawn Lynch20121225011384.6624181490135.232.115.2
Rudi Johnson20051225510664.292116580153.929.515.2
Andre Ellington2014122016603.3364463952106.489.115.1
Onterrio Smith200481014774.713426292260.351.615.1
Mark Ingram2016121437595.334135264478.262.815.1
David Johnson2017111232.10966806.513.115.1
Jay Ajayi2016111739085.272822113093.74015.1
Matt Forte2016122117843.7742292561125.759.415.1
Todd Gurley2015101738354.862117143098.431.715.1
Tim Biakabutuka2000101676093.625533329296.17915.1
Stephen Davis2002101937263.8631221411117.842.615.1
Josh Jacobs20191221810614.9725181460127.535.915.1
Jahvid Best2010111364473.346950407170.9101.715
Danny Woodhead201312772883.727161486549114.615
Jamal Anderson20013551903.5143111133.95.715
Le'Veon Bell2019121845893.236755403110191.915
Matt Forte2009121896343.4457474380133.181.815
Warrick Dunn20051222811745.1329231571124.441.615
Jamaal Charles20121222210554.8338302001110.453.615
Chris Johnson2013122057743.8442332683101.764.714.9
Michael Bennett2002121849945.4428262361105.638.914.9
Mike Anderson2005122008504.2916151881137.422.314.9
Christian McCaffrey201712822843.529064501443.7139.414.9
Marion Barber2007121628025735301981102.250.814.8
Tim Hightower2009121195354.566651374080.191.814.8
Fred Jackson2013121526334.274937293110766.114.8
Ronnie Brown2006112027833.9534292510118.447.814.8
Michael Pittman200312172696408454414288.4119.514.8
Joseph Addai20106934064.432418118059.436.914.7
Mewelde Moore20046643765.903227238031.944.614.7
Carlos Hyde2016101746863.9626221261104.238.414.7
Willis McGahee2012101677314.443326221099.849.114.7
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Ben Tate2011111387535.5410540077.213.89.8
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DeAngelo Williams201311151610422719160084.838.39.8
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Rob Kelley2016101125244.74944167.116.18.7
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Daniel Thomas201210883163.642215156059.333.78.6
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Latavius Murray2017121465723.95121059089.716.18.6
Chester Taylor2004121235704.622722121075.236.48.6
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Jason Wright20066521502.908579026.311.84.7
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Michael Cox2013220422.10331209.34.24.2
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Adrian Peterson2016231501.605270157.23.9
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Shaun Draughn2014110191.9000004.901.9
Image Credit: Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Saquon Barkley.

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