D.J. Chark was drafted outside the top 200 picks last season. He finished with 218 total points and the highest win rate among WRs in BestBall10s.
Rookies disappoint every year. That’s just a fact of football, both real and fantasy. Players with strong draft capital and elite athleticism who seem like great fantasy assets fall short in their first season. The fantasy community tends to forget and we move on. However, sometimes the value and opportunity are there for an insane second-year leap.
Is the opportunity there for this forgotten second-year player to become the next D.J. Chark?
College Production / Athletic Profile
Before diving into the apparent details of an underwhelming rookie season on a run-heavy team, it’s worth noting, lest we forget, how impressive his athletic profile is.
Coming out of Notre Dame, Miles Boykin posted substantial numbers in his final collegiate season. While his 30% Dominator Rating is solid, his late Breakout Age (21.9) leaves something to be desired.
Boykin shined at the 2019 NFL combine. He posted elite measurables across the board and wound up solidifying himself as a Day 2 draft pick and the upcoming NFL Draft.
His height/weight/speed combination makes him a legitimate threat at the wide receiver position, but as we all know, his landing spot was less than ideal.
Draft Capital and Landing Spot
The Baltimore Ravens drafted two wide receivers in the first two days of the 2019 NFL Draft. They started by making Marquise Brown the first wideout drafted and finished by taking Boykin as the final Day 2 wide receiver. The draft capital is excellent, but the flow of the offense did not afford Boykin the significant opportunities to become fantasy relevant.
In his rookie season, Boykin was eighth in targets for the Ravens. That’s not great for a team that led the league in rushing percentage (56%), was last in the league in passing rate (44%), and had the most rushing attempts (35) and fewest passing attempts (28) per sixty minutes of any team.
His historical comps, by way of the RotoViz Screener, offer up some recognizable names that could provide some intrigue moving forward.
Those are not ideal numbers for a rookie wideout looking to become more fantasy relevant in his second season. As a rookie, he was afforded modest snap counts and managed to post a positive efficiency rating with his limited workload.
Boykin’s projected comps in their second season demonstrate noticeable growth. Those types of per-game averages would warrant deeper flex consideration on bye weeks if nothing else.
His current ADP of WR105 puts him outside of the top 300 overall players. Unless you are in a deep dynasty league or have him on a taxi squad, he is likely unowned.
Boykin is tricky to evaluate correctly. Just as we wonder what to expect from Jalen Hurd in 2020, and if Parris Campbell is ready to take the next step, we don’t have a ton of data to work with. Looking to next season, I do expect to see significant growth from Boykin. While he likely will never be the No. 1 target while playing with Brown and tight end Mark Andrews, I believe he is worth a late-round stash. He flashed potential by snagging three touchdowns, which accounted for 23% of his receptions.
Oddly enough, Mike Williams, one of Boykin’s comps mentioned above, turned 23% of his receptions in touchdowns in 2018. While I think 10 touchdowns are a little high for Boykin, I can see him siphoning a few more next season. Despite being the lowest passing team by volume in the league, Lamar Jackson still dished out 36 touchdowns. The departure of Hayden Hurst and a second-year leap from Boykin all point to added opportunities, if ever so small.
Is Boykin the next D.J. Chark? He’s got the athleticism, the reality draft capital, can be picked in the final rounds, and could surprise a lot of people. Draft him late in best-ball leagues and enjoy some splash games in 2020.