David Montgomery slogged to a frustrating RB24 finish on 242 carries as a rookie. He averaged only 3.7 yards per attempt and ranked No. 152 in fantasy points over expectation. Only Frank Gore and Le’Veon Bell generated more negative FPOE in the run game.
Montgomery still offers intriguing potential entering his second year. He ranked No. 12 in opportunities a season ago, and his current ADP of RB23 offers a discount on that workload. Unlike the players drafted immediately after him, Montgomery’s touches also appear safe. The Bears have little beyond Tarik Cohen. While a revitalized Cohen could operate in more of an Austin Ekeler-like capacity and siphon off a few more carries, any injury to Cohen would push Montgomery’s workload into the elite range.
Is this RB23 a fair price for this package? Fortunately for drafters, Blair Andrews has done an excellent analysis of the interaction between draft slot, usage, and efficiency when it comes to projecting a RB’s second-year ADP. If you haven’t read Drafters Are Still Chasing the Wrong Things in Second-Year RBs, it will help you find the right breakouts at the right price.
Montgomery is overvalued based on predicted ADP. If we want to buy his volume at a discount, we should look elsewhere.
Fantasy dominance relies on mastering four basic elements:
- Creating exposure to upside
- Employing structural advantages and dominant draft strategies
- Locating breakouts
- Finding value
That final pillar is the emphasis of this series. Early-round picks allow us to build a foundation of stars, and we want to be especially sensitive to price in this area. We’ve already looked at how to buy identical versions of Allen Robinson and Robert Woods at heavily discounted prices. Today, we’ll find multiple options to replace Montgomery’s value.
The David Montgomery Discount Options
When I begin the research process for these articles, I pull up the Draft ADP Grid within our FFPC Redraft Dashboard. Once I’ve located a few cheaper options in similar situations, I open the Range of Outcomes tool as a quick check of my intuition. In this case, my top two targets ranked immediately below Montgomery in projected PPG.