Welcome to the game environment series. This series will provide several weekly games to target and fade, based on macro-level factors that impact fantasy production. For more on these factors, click here. We recommend using this in conjunction with our micro-level analysis, including the buy low report, the strength in numbers series, our quarterback, kicker, tight end, and defense streaming articles, and the slate of DFS analysis we provide.
Week 10 Review
Targets
- Bills at Cardinals
- Seahawks at Rams
- Buccaneers at Panthers
Low-owned Game Stack
Bengals at Steelers
Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins put on a bow on top of the Bills’ shootout with the Cardinals. Combining that play with the Stefon Diggs touchdown 30 seconds prior, and it made for a profitable day for many in DFS. The Buccaneers-Panthers and Steelers-Bengals games were also filled with fantasy goodness. Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger stacks were low owned, but both were in smash spots. Weather concerns prevented me from playing many Roethlisberger lineups, but the wind was high, so the process was probably correct. In any case, I shifted most of those lineups over to Brady, and I hope you guys did as well. The Seahawks-Rams game disappointed from a fantasy standpoint due to touchdown variance and the high-pressure rate generated by Aaron Donald and company. Overall, it was still a very good week for the target list.
Fades
- Ravens at Patriots
- 49ers at Saints
- Jaguars at Packers
The Ravens-Patriots matchup has a little more scoring than expected, but it still wasn’t a shootout. The 49ers-Saints and Jaguars-Packers both lacked much fantasy goodness, though Alvin Kamara continues to thrive as a receiver. His floor-ceiling combination is unparalleled when Christian McCaffrey is out. Overall, the fade list was somewhat disappointing. On to week 11.
The Game Environment – Week 11
- Week 11 average total: 49.0 points*
- Week 10 average total: 49.2 points
- Week 9 average total: 48.6 points
- Week 8 average total: 47.8 points
- Week 7 average total: 50.2 points
- Week 6 average total: 50.5 points
- Week 5 average total: 50.4 points
- Week 4 average total: 49.7 points
- Week 3 average total: 47.5 points
- Week 2 average total: 46 points
*Note: The average total for the DFS main slate is only 47.7 points, the lowest since week three.
Targets
Cincinnati at Washington
Given the low average total and a DFS main slate devoid of high-end quarterbacks and tight ends, the Bengals and the Football Team are the shining star target of the week. Yes, you read that correctly. Each of these teams operates at a top ten pace in neutral scripts. Each team passes at a top three neutral script rate. With a total near the main slate average (47), Joe Burrow and Alex Smith stacks should be among the best plays on the slate. Smith is Giana Pacinelli’s top quarterback streamer and Logan Thomas is one of Neil Dutton’s tight end streamer picks for season-long leagues.
Packers at Colts
With the highest total on the DFS main slate (51.5), this matchup should naturally be in our target consideration. The neutral script peripheral numbers aren’t appealing, with both teams playing at an average or slower pace and throwing at middling rates. However, if the Packers can get out to an early lead, they rank top 10 in passing rate when leading by seven or more points. When trailing by at least seven points, the Colts are top 10 in both pace and passing rate. Given the high total, I couldn’t list this matchup as a low-owned game stack target, but Philip Rivers stacks are among my favorite tournaments plays this week. For season-long leagues, Mo-Alie Cox and Michael Pittman Jr. have streamer appeal.
Titans at Ravens
In a week devoid of high total games, even two run-heavy teams can make the target list. This matchup has a higher than average total (49.5) and features two talented offenses. Yes, but are among the run-heaviest teams in the league, and the Ravens are one of the slowest-paced teams. However, the Titans play fast and are among the league leaders in no-huddle rate. When trailing by seven-plus points, those trends continue. While this isn’t an ideal target, a long or early touchdown by the Ravens could spike play volume.
