Should We Still Avoid Wide Receivers Who Change Teams? What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 8

Blair Andrews
November 2, 2020

If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look out how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency metric that accounts for both yards and touchdowns in a single number. Add EP (opportunity) and FPOE (efficiency) together, and you get a player’s actual fantasy output.

This weekly article will look at some leaders in expected points and try to tease out how fantasy gamers can take advantage of these various volume and efficiency situations. First, the Week 8 data:

Week 8 Expected Points

Player	Pos	EP	FPOE	ruEP	ruFPOE	reEP	reFPOE	msRuEP	msReEP	msEP	PPR
Cooper Kupp	WR	30.5	-8.5	0	0	30.5	-8.5	0.0%	34.3%	28.6%	22
Dalvin Cook	RB	29.3	19.3	24.5	9.8	4.8	9.5	91.4%	22.1%	60.4%	48.6
DeeJay Dallas	RB	26.3	-3.5	16.4	-6.3	9.9	2.8	89.1%	15.2%	31.4%	22.8
D.K. Metcalf	WR	25.2	14.9	0	0	25.2	14.9	0.0%	38.6%	30.1%	40.1
Josh Jacobs	RB	24.9	-12.1	23.6	-10.8	1.3	-1.3	85.8%	3.6%	38.9%	12.8
Alvin Kamara	RB	23.4	2.4	5.6	1.6	17.8	0.8	35.0%	29.0%	30.2%	25.8
Davante Adams	WR	23.3	7	0	0	23.3	7	0.0%	37.5%	31.2%	30.3
Brandon Aiyuk	WR	21.9	1.2	0	0	21.9	1.2	0.0%	31.5%	25.2%	23.1
David Montgomery	RB	21.2	-8.7	14	-5.1	7.1	-3.5	95.9%	11.3%	27.2%	12.5
Myles Gaskin	RB	20.4	-5.1	11.4	-0.7	9	-4.4	85.7%	24.7%	41.0%	15.3
Jarvis Landry	WR	19.4	-10.2	0	0	19.4	-10.2	0.0%	47.0%	39.5%	9.2
Keenan Allen	WR	19	2.7	0	0	17.6	4.1	0.0%	27.3%	22.9%	21.7
Travis Kelce	TE	19	5.9	0	0	19	5.9	0.0%	26.2%	23.5%	24.9
Robert Woods	WR	18.3	10.1	4.4	2.5	13.9	7.6	24.9%	15.6%	17.2%	28.4
Jamaal Williams	RB	18.2	0	9.7	-0.2	8.5	0.2	78.2%	13.7%	24.4%	18.2
Tee Higgins	WR	17.7	-3.3	1.3	-0.7	16.3	-2.5	7.3%	27.3%	22.8%	14.4
Julio Jones	WR	17.6	3.1	0	0	17.6	3.1	0.0%	37.3%	27.1%	20.7
Kendrick Bourne	WR	17	-0.9	0	0	17	-0.9	0.0%	24.5%	19.6%	16.1
Braxton Berrios	WR	16.9	-5.5	0	0	16.9	-5.5	0.0%	39.8%	32.1%	11.4
Corey Davis	WR	16.8	10	0	0	16.8	10	0.0%	33.1%	25.2%	26.8
Anthony Miller	WR	16.7	-1.4	0	0	16.7	-1.4	0.0%	26.5%	21.5%	15.3
Jakobi Meyers	WR	16.5	-2.7	0	0	16.5	-2.7	0.0%	46.3%	33.9%	13.8
Jordan Wilkins	RB	16	4.3	14.7	2.2	1.3	2.1	51.2%	2.2%	18.5%	20.3
T.J. Hockenson	TE	15.4	-1.9	0	0	15.4	-1.9	0.0%	24.2%	22.2%	13.5
Chase Claypool	WR	15.3	-0.1	0	0	15.3	-0.1	0.0%	29.5%	24.5%	15.2
Jerry Jeudy	WR	15.3	-4	0	0	15.3	-4	0.0%	25.0%	22.6%	11.3
Justin Jackson	RB	15.3	1.9	8	0.9	7.2	1.1	46.2%	11.2%	18.4%	17.2
Josh Reynolds	WR	15	-6.6	0	0	15	-6.6	0.0%	16.9%	14.1%	8.4
Giovani Bernard	RB	14.8	8	7.7	4.5	7.1	3.5	43.0%	11.9%	19.0%	22.8
Troymaine Pope	RB	14.5	0	4.7	2	9.8	-2	27.2%	15.2%	17.4%	14.5
Juju Smith-Schuster	WR	14.4	-0.7	0	0	14.4	-0.7	0.0%	27.8%	23.0%	13.7
Mecole Hardman	WR	14.2	8.4	0	0	14.2	8.4	0.0%	19.6%	17.6%	22.6
Stefon Diggs	WR	14.1	1.1	0	0	14.1	1.1	0.0%	51.8%	32.2%	15.2
James Conner	RB	13.8	1.2	10.2	0.5	3.6	0.7	95.3%	6.9%	22.1%	15
Jonathan Taylor	RB	13.6	-8.5	7.8	-5.6	5.7	-2.8	27.2%	9.9%	15.7%	5.1
A.J. Brown	WR	13.5	-1.1	0	0	13.5	-1.1	0.0%	26.6%	20.3%	12.4
Melvin Gordon	RB	13.4	-2.7	3.7	-1.1	9.7	-1.6	56.9%	15.8%	19.8%	10.7
Gerald Everett	TE	13.4	-5.2	0	0	13.4	-5.2	0.0%	15.1%	12.6%	8.2
Noah Fant	TE	13.3	-1.6	0	0	13.3	-1.6	0.0%	21.7%	19.6%	11.7
Mike Williams	WR	13.3	7.7	0.8	-0.7	12.6	8.3	4.6%	19.6%	16.0%	21
Tyler Boyd	WR	13	6.6	0.8	0.1	12.2	6.5	4.5%	20.5%	16.7%	19.6
Robby Anderson	WR	12.9	-3.4	0	0	12.9	-3.4	0.0%	31.7%	26.0%	9.5
JaMycal Hasty	RB	12.9	-2.8	11.4	-2.5	1.5	-0.3	65.9%	2.2%	14.9%	10.1
Derrick Henry	RB	12.8	4.4	11.4	5.8	1.4	-1.4	72.6%	2.8%	19.2%	17.2
Jeff Smith	WR	12.5	-6.6	0	0	12.5	-6.6	0.0%	29.4%	23.8%	5.9
Marvin Jones	WR	12.4	6.5	0	0	12.4	6.5	0.0%	19.5%	17.8%	18.9
Jared Cook	TE	11.8	4.3	0	0	11.8	4.3	0.0%	19.2%	15.2%	16.1
Trey Burton	TE	11.8	-1.7	3.4	2.8	8.4	-4.5	11.8%	14.5%	13.6%	10.1
Gus Edwards	RB	11.8	2.9	10.4	4.3	1.4	-1.4	58.8%	3.2%	19.4%	14.7
Todd Gurley	RB	11.6	-1	11.6	-1	0	0	65.5%	0.0%	17.9%	10.6
Zack Moss	RB	11.5	8.6	9.9	10.2	1.6	-1.6	59.3%	5.9%	26.3%	20.1
Curtis Samuel	WR	11.3	9.4	2.9	5.4	8.4	4	32.2%	20.6%	22.7%	20.7
Marvin Hall	WR	11.1	4.2	0	0	11.1	4.2	0.0%	17.5%	16.0%	15.3
Tre'Quan Smith	WR	11	-1.7	0	0	11	-1.7	0.0%	17.9%	14.2%	9.3
Hayden Hurst	TE	10.9	-0.5	0	0	10.9	-0.5	0.0%	23.1%	16.8%	10.4
Kareem Hunt	RB	10.9	-1.6	6.8	-0.2	4.1	-1.4	87.2%	9.9%	22.2%	9.3
Auden Tate	WR	10.8	2.7	0	0	10.8	2.7	0.0%	18.1%	13.9%	13.5
Darnell Mooney	WR	10.8	7.1	0	0	10.8	7.1	0.0%	17.1%	13.9%	17.9
Jerick McKinnon	RB	10.7	3.2	4.4	1.5	6.3	1.7	25.4%	9.1%	12.3%	13.9
Jimmy Graham	TE	10.5	-7.2	0	0	10.5	-7.2	0.0%	16.6%	13.5%	3.3
Willie Snead	WR	10.4	5.2	0	0	10.4	5.2	0.0%	24.1%	17.1%	15.6
Nyheim Hines	RB	10.3	10.9	2.8	-2	7.5	12.9	9.8%	13.0%	11.9%	21.2
Zach Pascal	WR	10	-2.6	0	0	9.9	-2.5	0.0%	17.1%	11.5%	7.4
Allen Robinson	WR	9.8	10.9	0	0	9.8	10.9	0.0%	15.5%	12.6%	20.7
Tyreek Hill	WR	9.7	16.1	0	0	9.7	16.1	0.0%	13.4%	12.0%	25.8
J.K. Dobbins	RB	9.7	3.4	7.3	4	2.4	-0.6	41.2%	5.6%	15.9%	13.1
D.J. Moore	WR	9.5	-2	0	0	9.5	-2	0.0%	23.3%	19.1%	7.5
Damien Harris	RB	9.5	6.7	9.5	6.7	0	0	72.0%	0.0%	19.5%	16.2
Mike Davis	RB	9.4	-0.7	6.1	0.5	3.3	-1.2	67.8%	8.1%	18.9%	8.7
Samaje Perine	RB	9.4	1	8.1	1.1	1.2	0	45.3%	2.0%	12.1%	10.4
Mark Andrews	TE	9.3	-3.1	0	0	9.3	-3.1	0.0%	21.5%	15.3%	6.2
Tyler Lockett	WR	9.3	-2	0	0	9.3	-2	0.0%	14.2%	11.1%	7.3
Greg Olsen	TE	9.1	-9.1	0	0	9.1	-9.1	0.0%	13.9%	10.9%	0
Robert Tonyan Jr.	TE	8.9	4	0	0	8.9	4	0.0%	14.3%	11.9%	12.9
Demarcus Robinson	WR	8.8	7.5	0	0	8.8	7.5	0.0%	12.2%	10.9%	16.3
DaeSean Hamilton	WR	8.7	9.5	0	0	8.7	9.5	0.0%	14.2%	12.9%	18.2
Brian Hill	RB	8.6	-0.2	5.3	0.2	3.3	-0.4	29.9%	7.0%	13.3%	8.4
Eric Ebron	TE	8.4	6.4	0	0	8.4	6.4	0.0%	16.2%	13.4%	14.8
A.J. Green	WR	8.4	-4.5	0	0	8.4	-4.5	0.0%	14.1%	10.8%	3.9
Preston Williams	WR	8.3	-4.8	0	0	8.3	-4.8	0.0%	22.8%	16.7%	3.5
Darren Waller	TE	8.2	-0.4	0	0	8.2	-0.4	0.0%	22.5%	12.8%	7.8
D'Andre Swift	RB	8.1	-2.8	2.7	-2.6	5.4	-0.2	45.8%	8.5%	11.7%	5.3
Devin Singletary	RB	8	2.2	6.8	1.8	1.3	0.3	40.7%	4.8%	18.3%	10.2
Henry Ruggs	WR	7.9	-5	0.7	-0.6	7.2	-4.4	2.5%	19.7%	12.3%	2.9
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB	7.9	-1.8	3	-0.9	4.9	-0.9	36.1%	6.8%	9.8%	6.1
Ross Dwelley	TE	7.7	0.9	0	0	7.7	0.9	0.0%	11.1%	8.9%	8.6
Latavius Murray	RB	7.7	-1.6	4	-2.3	3.7	0.7	25.0%	6.0%	9.9%	6.1
Hunter Renfrow	WR	7.3	5.3	0	0	7.3	5.3	0.0%	20.0%	11.4%	12.6
Malcolm Brown	RB	7.2	0.5	4.9	-0.9	2.3	1.4	27.7%	2.6%	6.7%	7.7
Phillip Lindsay	RB	7.1	8.5	2.8	11.5	4.3	-3	43.1%	7.0%	10.5%	15.6
Deonte Harris	WR	7	-2.3	2.9	-3.1	4	0.9	18.1%	6.5%	9.0%	4.7
Darrell Henderson	RB	6.9	-0.1	4.2	0.5	2.7	-0.6	23.7%	3.0%	6.5%	6.8
Tyler Higbee	TE	6.8	-3.4	0	0	6.8	-3.4	0.0%	7.6%	6.4%	3.4
Le'Veon Bell	RB	6.7	0.1	2.3	-1.6	4.4	1.7	27.7%	6.1%	8.3%	6.8
Taysom Hill	WR	6.7	7.8	3.3	0.2	3.4	7.6	20.6%	5.5%	8.7%	14.5
Mo Alie-Cox	TE	6.6	0.1	0	0	6.6	0.1	0.0%	11.4%	7.6%	6.7
Damiere Byrd	WR	6.5	0.4	0	0	6.5	0.4	0.0%	18.3%	13.3%	6.9
David Njoku	TE	6.5	-3.6	0	0	6.5	-3.6	0.0%	15.7%	13.2%	2.9
Marquise Brown	WR	6.4	0.9	0	0	6.4	0.9	0.0%	14.8%	10.5%	7.3
Marcus Johnson	WR	6.4	-0.5	0	0	6.4	-0.5	0.0%	11.1%	7.4%	5.9
Justin Jefferson	WR	6.3	-0.7	0	0	6.3	-0.7	0.0%	29.0%	13.0%	5.6
K.J. Hamler	WR	6.3	4	0	0	6.3	4	0.0%	10.3%	9.3%	10.3
Kenny Golladay	WR	6.3	-6.3	0	0	6.3	-6.3	0.0%	9.9%	9.1%	0
Trent Taylor	WR	6.3	-0.1	0	0	6.3	-0.1	0.0%	9.1%	7.3%	6.2
Calvin Ridley	WR	6.2	1	0	0	6.2	1	0.0%	13.1%	9.6%	7.2
David Moore	WR	6.2	7.4	1	1.8	5.2	5.6	5.4%	8.0%	7.4%	13.6
Miles Boykin	WR	6.1	3.9	0	0	6.1	3.9	0.0%	14.1%	10.0%	10
Hunter Henry	TE	6.1	1.2	0	0	6.1	1.2	0.0%	9.5%	7.3%	7.3
Lamical Perine	RB	6.1	-0.8	3.7	-1	2.3	0.3	37.0%	5.4%	11.6%	5.3
Adam Thielen	WR	6	-0.3	0	0	6	-0.3	0.0%	27.6%	12.4%	5.7
Jace Sternberger	TE	6	1.6	0	0	6	1.6	0.0%	9.6%	8.0%	7.6
Danny Amendola	WR	6	2.4	0	0	6	2.4	0.0%	9.4%	8.6%	8.4
George Kittle	TE	6	-0.1	0	0	6	-0.1	0.0%	8.6%	6.9%	5.9
Joshua Kelley	RB	5.9	-2.4	3.8	-0.6	2.1	-1.8	22.0%	3.3%	7.1%	3.5
Jack Doyle	TE	5.8	4	0	0	5.8	4	0.0%	10.0%	6.7%	9.8
Jalen Guyton	WR	5.6	-4.3	0	0	5.6	-4.3	0.0%	8.7%	6.7%	1.3
Cam Akers	RB	5.6	0.8	4.2	-0.7	1.4	1.5	23.7%	1.6%	5.2%	6.4
James White	RB	5.5	0	0.6	-0.6	4.9	0.6	4.5%	13.8%	11.3%	5.5
Juwan Johnson	WR	5.5	-4	0	0	5.5	-4	0.0%	9.0%	7.1%	1.5
Byron Pringle	WR	5.4	-0.2	0	0	5.4	-0.2	0.0%	7.5%	6.7%	5.2
Equanimeous St. Brown	WR	5.2	-3	0	0	5.2	-3	0.0%	8.4%	7.0%	2.2
DeVante Parker	WR	4.8	2.5	0	0	4.8	2.5	0.0%	13.2%	9.7%	7.3
Nelson Agholor	WR	4.8	-4.8	0	0	4.8	-4.8	0.0%	13.2%	7.5%	0
Frank Gore	RB	4.8	-1.8	4.8	-1.8	0	0	48.0%	0.0%	9.1%	3
Ryan Izzo	TE	4.7	-0.3	0	0	4.7	-0.3	0.0%	13.2%	9.7%	4.4
Devin Duvernay	WR	4.7	0.2	0	0	4.7	0.2	0.0%	10.9%	7.7%	4.9
Denzel Mims	WR	4.6	1.6	0	0	4.6	1.6	0.0%	10.8%	8.7%	6.2
Anthony Firkser	TE	4.6	1	0	0	4.6	1	0.0%	9.1%	6.9%	5.6
Harrison Bryant	TE	4.5	1	0	0	4.5	1	0.0%	10.9%	9.2%	5.5
Russell Gage	WR	4.4	0.1	0	0	4.4	0.1	0.0%	9.3%	6.8%	4.5
Diontae Johnson	WR	4.4	-2.8	0	0	4.4	-2.8	0.0%	8.5%	7.0%	1.6
Rashard Higgins	WR	4.3	-1.9	0	0	4.3	-1.9	0.0%	10.4%	8.8%	2.4
Tyler Ervin	RB	4.3	-2.6	0	0	4.3	-2.6	0.0%	6.9%	5.8%	1.7
Jacob Hollister	TE	4	-2.4	0	0	4	-2.4	0.0%	6.1%	4.8%	1.6
Rex Burkhead	RB	4	0.1	2.7	-0.1	1.4	0.1	20.5%	3.9%	8.2%	4.1
Kerryon Johnson	RB	3.9	5.6	0	0	3.9	5.6	0.0%	6.1%	5.6%	9.5
Devontae Booker	RB	3.9	1.7	2.3	0.6	1.6	1.1	8.4%	4.4%	6.1%	5.6
Adrian Peterson	RB	3.9	-1.7	2.5	-1.8	1.4	0.1	42.4%	2.2%	5.6%	2.2
Ian Thomas	TE	3.8	2	0	0	3.8	2	0.0%	9.3%	7.6%	5.8
Cordarrelle Patterson	WR	3.8	-1.3	0.6	-0.2	3.2	-1.1	4.1%	5.1%	4.9%	2.5
A.J. Dillon	RB	3.8	0.9	2.4	-0.3	1.3	1.3	19.4%	2.1%	5.1%	4.7
Gabriel Davis	WR	3.7	-3.7	0	0	3.7	-3.7	0.0%	13.6%	8.4%	0
Adam Humphries	WR	3.6	-3.6	0	0	3.6	-3.6	0.0%	7.1%	5.4%	0
Albert Okwuegbunam	TE	3.6	4.3	0	0	3.6	4.3	0.0%	5.9%	5.3%	7.9
Jeremy McNichols	RB	3.6	1.3	1.9	3	1.6	-1.6	12.1%	3.1%	5.4%	4.9
Jakeem Grant	WR	3.5	5	0	0	3.5	-1	0.0%	9.6%	7.0%	8.5
Gabe Nabers	RB	3.4	3.8	0	0	3.4	3.8	0.0%	5.3%	4.1%	7.2
Jason Witten	TE	3.3	0.8	0	0	3.3	0.8	0.0%	9.0%	5.2%	4.1
Christian Blake	WR	3.3	0.1	0	0	3.3	0.1	0.0%	7.0%	5.1%	3.4
MyCole Pruitt	TE	3.3	-3.3	0	0	3.3	-3.3	0.0%	6.5%	5.0%	0
Chris Herndon	TE	3.2	-1.9	0	0	3.2	-1.9	0.0%	7.5%	6.1%	1.3
T.Y. Hilton	WR	3.2	-0.3	0	0	3.2	-0.3	0.0%	5.5%	3.7%	2.9
Durham Smythe	TE	3.1	0.5	0	0	3.1	0.5	0.0%	8.5%	6.2%	3.6
Jonnu Smith	TE	3	1.9	0	0	3	1.9	0.0%	5.9%	4.5%	4.9
Nick Keizer	TE	3	-1.5	0	0	3	-1.5	0.0%	4.1%	3.7%	1.5
Van Jefferson	WR	3	1.3	0	0	3	1.3	0.0%	3.4%	2.8%	4.3
Ty Johnson	RB	2.9	0.2	1.5	0	1.4	0.2	15.0%	3.3%	5.5%	3.1
Darrel Williams	RB	2.9	0.7	1.4	0.5	1.5	0.2	16.9%	2.1%	3.6%	3.6
Kyle Juszczyk	RB	2.8	1.3	0	0	2.8	1.3	0.0%	4.0%	3.2%	4.1
Cole Beasley	WR	2.7	1.7	0	0	2.7	1.7	0.0%	9.9%	6.2%	4.4
Mike Gesicki	TE	2.7	-0.9	0	0	2.7	-0.9	0.0%	7.4%	5.4%	1.8
Jaylen Samuels	RB	2.6	-2.6	0	0	2.6	-2.6	0.0%	5.0%	4.2%	0
John Brown	WR	2.5	0.6	0	0	2.5	0.6	0.0%	9.2%	5.7%	3.1
Drew Sample	TE	2.4	-2.4	0	0	2.4	-2.4	0.0%	4.0%	3.1%	0
D'Onta Foreman	RB	2.4	1.3	2.4	1.3	0	0	15.3%	0.0%	3.6%	3.7
D'Ernest Johnson	RB	2.2	-0.1	1	-0.4	1.2	0.3	12.8%	2.9%	4.5%	2.1
Ryan Nall	RB	2.1	-0.9	0	0	2.1	-0.9	0.0%	3.3%	2.7%	1.2
Isaiah Ford	WR	1.9	0.1	0	0	1.9	0.1	0.0%	5.2%	3.8%	2
Matt Breida	RB	1.9	-0.6	1.9	-0.6	0	0	14.3%	0.0%	3.8%	1.3
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	1.8	1.5	0.3	0.1	1.5	1.4	2.4%	2.4%	2.4%	3.3
Ray-Ray McCloud	RB	1.7	-0.1	0	0	1.7	-0.1	0.0%	3.3%	2.7%	1.6
Darrius Shepherd	WR	1.7	-0.1	0	0	1.7	-0.1	0.0%	2.7%	2.3%	1.6
Jesse James	TE	1.7	1.6	0	0	1.7	1.6	0.0%	2.7%	2.4%	3.3
Chad Beebe	WR	1.6	1	0	0	1.6	1	0.0%	7.4%	3.3%	2.6
Isaiah Zuber	WR	1.6	0.7	0	0	1.6	0.7	0.0%	4.5%	3.3%	2.3
Adam Shaheen	TE	1.6	-1.6	0	0	1.6	-1.6	0.0%	4.4%	3.2%	0
Foster Moreau	TE	1.6	-1.6	0	0	1.6	-1.6	0.0%	4.4%	2.5%	0
Vyncint Smith	WR	1.6	0.7	0	0	1.6	0.7	0.0%	3.8%	3.0%	2.3
Jalen Richard	RB	1.6	1.2	0.4	0.2	1.2	1	1.5%	3.3%	2.5%	2.8
Ashton Dulin	WR	1.6	0.7	0	0	1.6	0.7	0.0%	2.8%	1.8%	2.3
Austin Carr	WR	1.6	0.4	0	0	1.6	0.4	0.0%	2.6%	2.1%	2
Will Dissly	TE	1.6	1.1	0	0	1.6	1.1	0.0%	2.5%	1.9%	2.7
Nick Bellore	RB	1.6	0.8	0.6	-0.1	1	0.9	3.3%	1.5%	1.9%	2.4
Darwin Thompson	RB	1.6	-1.3	1.6	-1.3	0	0	19.3%	0.0%	2.0%	0.3
Irv Smith Jr.	TE	1.5	1.1	0	0	1.5	1.1	0.0%	6.9%	3.1%	2.6
Kyle Rudolph	TE	1.5	0.7	0	0	1.5	0.7	0.0%	6.9%	3.1%	2.2
Malcolm Perry	WR	1.5	0	0	-0.5	1.5	0.5	0.0%	4.1%	3.0%	1.5
Colin Thompson	TE	1.5	-1.5	0	0	1.5	-1.5	0.0%	3.7%	3.0%	0
Keith Smith	RB	1.5	-1.5	0	0	1.5	-1.5	0.0%	3.2%	2.3%	0
Kalif Raymond	WR	1.5	0.6	0	0	1.5	0.6	0.0%	3.0%	2.3%	2.1
Khari Blasingame	RB	1.5	0	0	0	1.5	0	0.0%	3.0%	2.3%	1.5
Malik Taylor	WR	1.5	2.1	0	0	1.5	2.1	0.0%	2.4%	2.0%	3.6
Javon Wims	WR	1.5	0.4	0	0	1.5	0.4	0.0%	2.4%	1.9%	1.9
Deon Yelder	TE	1.5	0	0	0	1.5	0	0.0%	2.1%	1.9%	1.5
Tevin Coleman	RB	1.5	0.5	1.5	0.5	0	0	8.7%	0.0%	1.7%	2
James Washington	WR	1.4	-1.4	0	0	1.4	-1.4	0.0%	2.7%	2.2%	0
Michael Pittman	WR	1.4	0.2	0	0	1.4	0.2	0.0%	2.4%	1.6%	1.6
Tommylee Lewis	WR	1.4	0.1	0	0	1.4	0.1	0.0%	2.3%	1.8%	1.5
Cole Kmet	TE	1.4	-0.2	0	0	1.4	-0.2	0.0%	2.2%	1.8%	1.2
Tyler Kroft	TE	1.3	0.8	0	0	1.3	0.8	0.0%	4.8%	3.0%	2.1
Chris Manhertz	TE	1.3	0.3	0	0	1.3	0.3	0.0%	3.2%	2.6%	1.6
Andy Janovich	RB	1.3	-1.3	0	0	1.3	-1.3	0.0%	3.1%	2.6%	0
James Proche	WR	1.3	-1.3	0	0	1.3	-1.3	0.0%	3.0%	2.1%	0
Alexander Mattison	RB	1.3	-0.5	1.3	-0.5	0	0	4.9%	0.0%	2.7%	0.8
Nick Boyle	TE	1.2	-1.2	0	0	1.2	-1.2	0.0%	2.8%	2.0%	0
Cethan Carter	TE	1.2	0	0	0	1.2	0	0.0%	2.0%	1.5%	1.2
Josh Hill	TE	1.1	0.6	0	0	1.1	0.6	0.0%	1.8%	1.4%	1.7
C.J. Ham	RB	1	-0.8	1	-0.8	0	0	3.7%	0.0%	2.1%	0.2
Qadree Ollison	RB	0.8	-0.5	0.8	-0.5	0	0	4.5%	0.0%	1.2%	0.3
Jamal Agnew	WR	0.7	0.4	0.7	0.4	0	0	11.9%	0.0%	1.0%	1.1
Alec Ingold	RB	0.5	-0.2	0.5	-0.2	0	0	1.8%	0.0%	0.8%	0.3
Anthony McFarland	RB	0.5	-0.4	0.5	-0.4	0	0	4.7%	0.0%	0.8%	0.1
Travis Homer	RB	0.4	0	0.4	0	0	0	2.2%	0.0%	0.5%	0.4
Gunner Olszewski	WR	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.2	0	0	3.0%	0.0%	0.8%	0.6
Mike Burton	RB	0.2	-0.1	0.2	-0.1	0	0	1.3%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1
Nsimba Webster	WR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
Xavier Jones	RB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
Dante Pettis	WR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
Joe Reed	WR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
K.J. Hill	WR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
Alex Erickson	WR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
Dwayne Washington	RB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
Marcedes Lewis	TE	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
Tyrie Cleveland	WR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
Brandon Powell	WR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
Trey Edmunds	RB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
Pharoh Cooper	WR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
Ameer Abdullah	RB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
K.J. Osborn	WR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
Mike Boone	RB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0
Andre Roberts	WR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0

When Changing Teams Actually Works

Last week we talked about how market share of expected points is one of the most predictive metrics for WRs. I suggested buying Denzel Mims on that basis. That didn’t quite work out (yet). But sometimes msEP aligns with other predictive metrics in a way that makes it irresistible. Week 8’s leader in msReEP (prior to Monday night) was Stefon Diggs. As Curtis Patrick reminds us, this shouldn’t be surprising:

Stefon Diggs is the overall WR1 in expected fantasy points season-to-date.

— Curtis Patrick (@CPatrickNFL) November 2, 2020

Indeed, Diggs now leads all WRs in targets and trails only DeAndre Hopkins in receptions and yards.^[1]Which is especially impressive for Hopkins since he’s only played seven games. The player who currently ranks third in yards is Robby Anderson. Yes, all three of the current leaders in receiving yards changed teams in the offseason. Diggs, Hopkins, and Anderson all rank inside the top 10 in both expected points and fantasy points.^[2]Anderson also ranked 10th in msReEP in Week 8.

If Diggs was someone you were avoiding because of the risks associated with WRs changing teams, you should have paid closer attention to Madison Parkhill’s brilliant analysis in the offseason. If Hopkins didn’t make it onto any of your squads, you should have believed Tyler Loechner when he said Hopkins still has top-five upside. If Anderson wasn’t on your radar … I honestly don’t know what to say — Shawn Siegele was the only person I know of who was buying Anderson this offseason.^[3]Just do what Shawn does.

It’s true that WRs who change teams tend to underperform, but as always, the best reason to be familiar with “rules” like this is to gain a better understanding of the exceptions. The truth is that WRs as good as Diggs rarely change teams, because WRs as good as Diggs rarely have reason to want to leave the team that enabled them to become so good. However, it became painfully clear in 2019 that Diggs was good in spite of the Vikings’ offense, not because of it.

So should we have been ignoring the findings of past studies (including my own) that WRs who change teams usually don’t play as well as they did before the team change?

Footnotes[+]Footnotes[−]

Footnotes
↑1	Which is especially impressive for Hopkins since he’s only played seven games.
↑2	Anderson also ranked 10th in msReEP in Week 8.
↑3	Just do what Shawn does.

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Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

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