You Can Win with the Worst RB in the NFL, but What About the Two Worst RBs? What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 13

Blair Andrews
December 8, 2020

Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 13. Backup RBs continued to underperform while our favorite rookies continued to make cases for dynasty startup first-round status. And we finally answer the question: do you really need RBs in the FFPC?

For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end of the article.

Shawn and I entered the finals of our FFPC Main Event league as slight underdogs. Our opponent’s starters included Kyler Murray, James Robinson, Keenan Allen, and Adam Thielen. We had little choice but to start Nyheim Hines and Benny Snell at RB.

Snell actually had one of the more valuable workloads of the week. But he was also the least efficient player in Week 13, and it wasn’t particularly close.^[1]His ruEP and ruFPOE numbers reflect three consecutive failed carries from the 1-yard-line, plays that combined for 9.5 EP and resulted in no points.

This was easily the worst game of Snell’s career, but if you’re not already worried that Snell might just be Carlos Hyde without the opportunity, a look at his career numbers is sobering.

Even if we remove his last two games — each more disappointing than any game that had come before it — Snell’s career FPOE is still negative.

For as valuable as Snell’s workload was, it wasn’t the most valuable RB workload on our FFPC team, or even in the same game. J.D. McKissic had 20.5 expected points the one week we decide to bench him. Only Alvin Kamara has more targets or receiving yards among RBs for the season.

Despite his workload, McKissic was again in the red in terms of efficiency. He remains the least efficient RB in the league, though he does now have some competition.

Kamara, for his part, remains the most efficient RB in the league, but he’s lost his lead in overall workload value, as his expected points cratered once Taysom Hill took over QB duties in Week 11.

In the meantime, Dalvin Cook has been seeing some of his biggest workloads of the season in the last three weeks, surpassing 30 EP twice in that span.

Cook now leads all RBs in total EP and total PPR, and trails only Kamara in total FPOE. However, neither of those players even land in the top five in total FPOE among non-quarterbacks.

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Footnotes[+]Footnotes[−]

Footnotes
↑1	His ruEP and ruFPOE numbers reflect three consecutive failed carries from the 1-yard-line, plays that combined for 9.5 EP and resulted in no points.

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

What’s included in your subscription??

Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
- A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
Revolutionary Tools
- Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
Groundbreaking Articles
- RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
Weekly Projections
- Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
Expert Rankings
And a whole lot more…

Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

The Upcoming Rookie Class Is Breaking the Models, Part 3: The 2026 Wide Receiver Freak Score Leaderboard

Blair Andrews March 4, 2026

We’ve already explored the top running back and tight end athletes in the 2026 rookie class. In both groups we found players setting new records and forcing us to rethink both our models and our priors. But Freak Scores were designed first and foremost to find wide receiver profiles with an advantage in the red zone and around the goal line. The theory has always…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

The Upcoming Rookie Class Is Breaking the Models, Part 2: The 2026 Tight End Freak Score Leaderboard

Blair Andrews March 3, 2026

Last time, we looked at the freak athletes of the 2026 class at the running back position, including one prospect who literally forces us to rescale the metric (look for some updates on that front coming soon). No RB who ran at the combine has a Freak Score below 50 — no RB who participated was slower than 4.56 seconds in the 40-yard dash. And the…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

The Upcoming Rookie Class Is Breaking the Models: The 2026 Running Back Freak Score Leaderboard

Blair Andrews March 2, 2026

At RotoViz, we like to look at NFL prospects’ collegiate production as a foundational data point in making predictions. The best predictor of whether a player will succeed in the NFL is whether they succeeded in college. But it would be a mistake to think that size and speed don’t matter. Indeed, for a long time, we’ve relied on Freak Scores to find wide receiver…...