The Next Generation of NFL Quarterbacks Offers a Compelling Blend of Safety and Upside: How We Use Advanced Metrics to Evaluate Quarterback Prospects
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Image Credit: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Sam Howell.

In case you missed it, I just recently outlined a new way to predict future NFL draft capital and success for quarterbacks. It’s not perfect, but making small adjustments to how we process quarterback stats can go a long way in predicting success. That’s what we’ll attempt to do here today. We’ll be taking a look at the next generation of quarterbacks who are still in college to see if we can predict their future success using those small aforementioned adjustments in our quarterback analysis.

In my new combination Adjusted Yards Per Attempt Over Expected (AYAOE) and Rushing Yard Market Share (RushYdMS) model, I found that looking for quarterbacks who posted 90th percentile pass efficiency in AYAOE and at least 5% RushYdMS had significantly higher hit rates than those that missed just one of those thresholds. And really, it’s better if a quarterback’s rushing yard market share peak is significantly higher than that 5% mark.

So which college quarterbacks should we be keeping our eye on as we head into the 2021 college football season? Let’s start with the 25 quarterbacks below. This set of quarterbacks all have a peak season of 90th% AYAOE, intriguing peak rushing production marks or project to see a spike in expected efficiency numbers this fall leading to decent NFL Draft Capital.

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